Misguidance on Real Estate plunge

[Rutger]

Reading threads a few years back you see very few people with the courage to voice pessimistic views of the real estate outlook in South Walton. They received scathing responses. Today these people look like oracles. I applaud the dissidents who through careful analysis of the market, not hope or any other irrationality, knew it was and still is falling substantially.

Real estate as an asset class doesn’t turn around in 1-2 years as so many people on these boards purport. Cycles typically run 8-10 years or more. For the next 2 years you will see prices decline as much as 50% off current levels, then flat or gains of 1-3% over the next decade (factoring inflation you will have net losses).

Look at the current institutional community. The last 10 years saw a very large runup of investment allocated to R.E., today you can’t find a CIO who isn’t quickly reducing exposure to R.E. and reallocating into different asset class such as fixed income, private equity or traditionals.

You ask, what does the institutional community have to do with me Joe Citizen? If you study the market over long periods, let’s say 30 years, the residential market trails the institutions by 12 – 18 months and follows the trend line quite remarkably.

Analyzing macroeconomic factors such as defaults in subprimes and now Alt-a’s looming, plus microeconomic factors such as higher insurance, taxes, etc…you see significant losses and erosion of value in real estate over the next 5 to 10 years. Bernanke will try to stave off the hemorrhaging real estate market with adjustments to the money supply but the bubble will burst and burst louder than tech in 2000.

We have had a second home in 30-a since the early 80’s and have heard varying degree’s of commentary on the market but nothing like the current optimistic dogma being spewed today. The reason I posted is to address those giving investment advice to home owners like “hold on” and “weather the storm.” You are doing a great disservice to the average home owner (Unless they are prepared to hold on for 10 years).

For those of you that disagree, let’s revisit this post at the end of ’07, ‘08 and ‘09. The data will speak for itself.

[destinsm]

Great post... totally agree...

Seems the Treasury Secretary has a different view though :)
I really do wonder what signs he is looking at...
- skyrocketing inventory
- tightening mortgage market
- foreclosures increasing
- property insurance increasing
- taxes increasing
- salaries not increasing
- debt loads becoming harder to carry with increase in rates
- RE related jobs in the crapper (many do not get included in gov't unemployment figures conveniantly enough... ie agents, illegal construction workers, independant brokers, etc...)

Yea overall I guess everything looks peachy... its all up from here!!!
--------

Paulson says U.S. housing sector 'at or near bottom'





By Greg Robb

Last Update: 1:01 PM ET Apr 20, 2007





WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson delivered an upbeat assessment of the economy, saying growth was healthy and the housing market was nearing a turnaround. "All the signs I look at" show "the housing market is at or near the bottom," Paulson said in a speech to a business group in New York. The U.S. economy is "very healthy" and "robust," Paulson said.

[Bobby J]

Basically we are in a depreciating market. There is really no other way to look at it. Yes, we have beautiful beaches and pretty people but the simple economic fact of more product then demand brings prices down. Until we have a 4 month period where sales pass new inventory we are going to stay here. The bottom line is people do not see the perception of value unless the price comes to a point of value. Just because you paid $500,000 does not mean in today's market it will sale for that. We have to start looking at R.E. as a commodity. It is not a product. Products are sold by the sellers establishing price. R.E is not a product! It is a commodity! It is the buyer that establishes value. There is no relationship to advertising that you will find in a product....The difference is this commodity has emotion attached. People feel that I am not spending enough money to sell their listing, or I need more open house. Then when It finally sells, I sold it too cheap. If they could just remove some emotion they will sell. I am afraid the above comments are correct. If you are being advised to hold and wait one must be prepared to ride this cycle out. This is not a quick fix. If you can not wait, your price better have "wow" factor. If you have not sold within 45 days you are too high. The buyer pool never changes. They are all over the place. Price your home 1/2 of what you have on it today and see how many buyers show up! The problem is the public does not have the same perception of value they had two years ago. The Storms, taxes, and insurance helped change the perception. The way to sell your property is to create a drama price. Give the public the value and it will sell. It is not because your agent failed to advertise your home this week... If priced with a "WoW" the buyer will find it in a good or bad market.

[egrp]

you don't know the mkt is going down for the next 2 yrs just like the people who think its going up don't know. its just people's opionion. and i work in commercial RE dev: institutional and priv eq money for cmcl real estate has never been more abundant.

just state your opinion and don't say that other people's stating theirs is a diservice.

that being said my opinion is that residential real estate prices will continue to moderate slightly in the near term...a "plunge" is very very unlikely even in second home mkts...demographics, earnings power, and favorable tax treatment are the sources for my opinion.

[beachmouse]

My favorite is "But the new international airport is going to open up direct flights to London and Paris and all the Europeans are going to come charging here to buy."

BA isn't going to start offering regular service into the Panhandle anytime soon, kids. And the only reason you'll ever see KLM on a Panana City ticket is because it's the same old code sharing with NWA's flights to Memphis.

The new airport will be an improvement, and there will be more flights, but what you'll end up with is something close to Pensacola- a couple more nonstop flights to Texas every day, and if you're lucky a daily flight to Chicago. Not Orlando part deux.

[Bobby J]

you don't know the mkt is going down for the next 2 yrs just like the people who think its going up don't know. its just people's opionion. and i work in commercial RE dev: institutional and priv eq money for cmcl real estate has never been more abundant.

just state your opinion and don't say that other people's stating theirs is a diservice.

that being said my opinion is that residential real estate prices will continue to moderate slightly in the near term...a "plunge" is very very unlikely even in second home mkts...demographics, earnings power, and favorable tax treatment are the sources for my opinion.

None of us know for sure about anything other then what is doing today. We can simply look at the "New" inventory and compare to solds/pendings. The new inventory on a daily basis is unbelievable. So simple economics tells us we are in a depreciating market. When the above trend changes so will the market. This trend needs to last roughly 4 months to change the market. Low inventory=appreciating market.

[destinsm]

None of us know for sure about anything other then what is doing today. We can simply look at the "New" inventory and compare to solds/pendings. The new inventory on a daily basis is unbelievable. So simple economics tells us we are in a depreciating market. When the above trend changes so will the market. This trend needs to last roughly 4 months to change the market. Low inventory=appreciating market.

BobbyJ,

Just wanted to say that I (and probably others) appreciate your honest comments especially from someone in the biz like yourself...

Also would like to recomend a really helpful online tool to follow what is going on in the Destin market... I know most on here would like to see something similar for the SoWal market :)

But anyway this website allows the common man info from the MLS that includes new listings, price changes, pendings, closings, etc... It is a great tool to see what is going on day to day and month to month in the Destin market... Check it out...

www.thewiredagent.com
Great info shared on the Destin Market Pulse link...

[Bobby J]

Thanks Destin... BTW, keep in mind people are selling once they put the price where the public finds the value. I have a full pending drawer!

[Joe Mammy]

BobbyJ,

Just wanted to say that I (and probably others) appreciate your honest comments especially from someone in the biz like yourself...

Also would like to recomend a really helpful online tool to follow what is going on in the Destin market... I know most on here would like to see something similar for the SoWal market :)

But anyway this website allows the common man info from the MLS that includes new listings, price changes, pendings, closings, etc... It is a great tool to see what is going on day to day and month to month in the Destin market... Check it out...

www.thewiredagent.com
Great info shared on the Destin Market Pulse link...

This man knows things! Thanks for the kind words destinsm. One of my listings today just became the lowest priced Destin 1br condo at a WOW price of $118,000! 923sf, balcony overlooks lake and pool and there is even a partial Bay view from the balcony. Vacant and super clean.

[destinsm]

Thanks Destin... BTW, keep in mind people are selling once they put the price where the public finds the value. I have a full pending drawer!

I dont doubt they are... but I will wait and let a few others reset those comps downward a bit first...

[Paradise Sea]

[FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]

For those of you that disagree, let’s revisit this post at the end of ’07, ‘08 and ‘09. The data will speak for itself.

Yes, let's do that. Let's see if you're the new Oracle of SoWal.

[NewUrbanGirl]

The law of supply demonstrates the quantities that will be sold at a certain price. The supply relationship shows an upward slope. This means that the higher the price, the higher the quantity supplied. Producers supply more at a higher price because selling a higher quantity at a higher price increases revenue.

This is my simple theory on why we have such a glut in properties for sale right now. About a year or more ago, anyone that had a glimmer that they might be selling in the next five years threw their property on the market hoping to get in why the market was white hot. And it surely was. Not many of these folks HAD to sell. That is why prices didn't drop like rocks. It doesn't cost sellers much to have their properties for sale. In fact, there might be a strange cachet to be able to say to their investulator friends at home, "Oh, yes, I have my house listed at a million five, too, but if it doesn't sell, that's okay, we love to go there ourselves, whenever we can get away!"

Then of course, you can throw in the demand curve. With the excited specuvestors tapped out, the remaining market is a bit more thoughtful about their purchases. With all of the supply in this market, does it not give them a lot more time to find the right property and then wait around for that property to get to the "right" price? But of course, the problem is that it is hard to determine the right price given this peculiar buyer-seller dynamic. This equilibrium will be set on a property-by-property basis, just as it should. I love capitalism. Seriously.

[Babyblue]

Reading threads a few years back you see very few people with the courage to voice pessimistic views of the real estate outlook in South Walton. They received scathing responses. Today these people look like oracles. I applaud the dissidents who through careful analysis of the market, not hope or any other irrationality, knew it was and still is falling substantially.

Real estate as an asset class doesn’t turn around in 1-2 years as so many people on these boards purport. Cycles typically run 8-10 years or more. For the next 2 years you will see prices decline as much as 50% off current levels, then flat or gains of 1-3% over the next decade (factoring inflation you will have net losses).

Look at the current institutional community. The last 10 years saw a very large runup of investment allocated to R.E., today you can’t find a CIO who isn’t quickly reducing exposure to R.E. and reallocating into different asset class such as fixed income, private equity or traditionals.

You ask, what does the institutional community have to do with me Joe Citizen? If you study the market over long periods, let’s say 30 years, the residential market trails the institutions by 12 – 18 months and follows the trend line quite remarkably.

Analyzing macroeconomic factors such as defaults in subprimes and now Alt-a’s looming, plus microeconomic factors such as higher insurance, taxes, etc…you see significant losses and erosion of value in real estate over the next 5 to 10 years. Bernanke will try to stave off the hemorrhaging real estate market with adjustments to the money supply but the bubble will burst and burst louder than tech in 2000.

We have had a second home in 30-a since the early 80’s and have heard varying degree’s of commentary on the market but nothing like the current optimistic dogma being spewed today. The reason I posted is to address those giving investment advice to home owners like “hold on” and “weather the storm.” You are doing a great disservice to the average home owner (Unless they are prepared to hold on for 10 years).

For those of you that disagree, let’s revisit this post at the end of ’07, ‘08 and ‘09. The data will speak for itself.

So you are saying to tell the home owners to sell in a market you say is dead and will remain so for the next ten years? Hmmm lets do revisit this post. I wrote 10 million in Contracts this week. Maybe your a referring to markets like Detroit? But as you know this is not an area for the "average" home owner. Never will be. This is a resort area and will always be one.

[nmosley]

Congrats Baby Blue!!!!!


What great news for you...and the rest of us who like 1/2 full glasses from time to time...or is it rose-colored glasses? Either way, sounds like you had an awesome week and I pray that your streak will continue on! Keep us posted.

[iqueequeg]

For those of you that disagree, let’s revisit this post at the end of ’07, ‘08 and ‘09. The data will speak for itself.

The problem is, when people are wrong on internet message boards, they tend to disappear or change their username.

That being said, everyone is Massachusetts knows that people who live in Cambridge are always right.

[Sandcastle]

Let’s see now; rapidly increasing inventory, major uncertainty over insurance and taxes, seemingly unprecedented pessimism from some normally optimistic Realtors. Sounds like capitulation to me. Maybe it’s time to break out the checkbook.

Actually, I was feeling pretty good until I read this thread. The weather has been beautiful at the beach, the canals north of Grayton are finally being dredged, I just finished building a great dock for my bay boat, and I was looking forward to a really great summer in SoWal.

[2bfabian]

There are some who think real estate is a risky business. But people who buy in this area are here for the swimming.

[Bobby J]

Let’s see now; rapidly increasing inventory, major uncertainty over insurance and taxes, seemingly unprecedented pessimism from some normally optimistic Realtors. Sounds like capitulation to me. Maybe it’s time to break out the checkbook.

Actually, I was feeling pretty good until I read this thread. The weather has been beautiful at the beach, the canals north of Grayton are finally being dredged, I just finished building a great dock for my bay boat, and I was looking forward to a really great summer in SoWal.

You will have a great summer in Sowal! I have never been more optimistic about what it is going to take to buy/sell in SoWal! Optimism and pessimism are all about perception. My buyers feel pretty optimistic about the market! My above comments pertain to folks that have to sell today. Take the emotion out and ask if you would buy your home for what you are asking. I am actually trying to be helpful. The buyer pool never left. The perception of value left! We need to help folks see the value by getting some of this inventory that is not selling off the market.

[SHELLY]

The buyer pool never left. The perception of value left! We need to help folks see the value by getting some of this inventory that is not selling off the market.

And how do you propose to get the "inventory that is not selling" off the market?

"Value" is a very subjective term. What is the "value" of a Florida beach property to someone who "values" the Arizona desert or the Tennessee mountains?

The perception of "value" that caused the RE boom was mainly the "value of "FA$T ka-ching," something that is understood by most everyone with a speculative streak.

Now that the speculative RE market has pretty much run its course, we're back to folks who "value" Florida beach property--which, because of the massive run-up in price and carrying costs, may not be near as many (or because of the over-building, seem near as many) as before...as we go through a reversion to the mean.


.

[SHELLY]

Actually, I was feeling pretty good until I read this thread. The weather has been beautiful at the beach, the canals north of Grayton are finally being dredged, I just finished building a great dock for my bay boat, and I was looking forward to a really great summer in SoWal.

Doesn't make sense....were you planning on selling your house this summer?


.

[robertsondavies]

It is because of Bobby J's honesty and ability to view the market objectively, that he will be my buyers agent at some point in the future.

He understands the market more than any other Realtor" I've seen posting on these boards -

I think Bobby J is at peace with a declining market, because he actually intends on being here in SoWal 10 yrs. from now, for the next cycle.

DT

BobbyJ,

Just wanted to say that I (and probably others) appreciate your honest comments especially from someone in the biz like yourself...

Also would like to recomend a really helpful online tool to follow what is going on in the Destin market... I know most on here would like to see something similar for the SoWal market :)

But anyway this website allows the common man info from the MLS that includes new listings, price changes, pendings, closings, etc... It is a great tool to see what is going on day to day and month to month in the Destin market... Check it out...

www.thewiredagent.com
Great info shared on the Destin Market Pulse link...

[Bobby J]

And how do you propose to get the "inventory that is not selling" off the market?

"Value" is a very subjective term. What is the "value" of a Florida beach property to someone who "values" the Arizona desert or the Tennessee mountains?

The perception of "value" that caused the RE boom was mainly the "value of "FA$T ka-ching," something that is understood by most everyone with a speculative streak.

Now that the speculative RE market has pretty much run its course, we're back to folks who "value" Florida beach property--which, because of the massive run-up in price and carrying costs, may not be near as many (or because of the over-building, seem near as many) as before...as we go through a reversion to the mean.


.

We help educate our clients about what will sell and what will not. If they can not come to terms with what you are telling them, they fire you, or you fire them. The property will not sell anyway. The longer it sits the value drops. If priced properly it sells. Does this make sense?

[Bobby J]

It is because of Bobby J's honesty and ability to view the market objectively, that he will be my buyers agent at some point in the future.

He understands the market more than any other Realtor" I've seen posting on these boards -

I think Bobby J is at peace with a declining market, because he actually intends on being here in SoWal 10 yrs. from now, for the next cycle.

DT

Thanks, very kind words. I am very clear on this market. It has been a struggle but believe we are all going to be ok.

[BrettMan]

The bottom line here is that South Walton - as beautiful as it is - is not immune from good 'ole supply and demand. There is more supply than there is demand so the price has to be compelling to gain interest. Compelling is all relative. I can tell you from my own experience. I had a lot at Rosemary Beach that was at "market price" and wasn't selling in late '05. At that time, I saw the writing on the wall and dropped the price by about 35% - to get that "Wow" factor mentioned earlier. It sold in a week. It also sold for more than comparable lots in RB are listed at today. I had the luxury of doing this because we got in early and our basis was low enough that we could drop our price that much and still make a tidy profit. For those that can't because they bought later - it's a very tough situation. Even if you can afford to "ride it out" - you'd probably be better off dropping your price to a "Wow" level now, getting it sold (even at a loss) and move on. If you make payments on something in hopes of it coming back to get that profit (or break even) you may be waiting a very long time. You'll have to do that math yourself. Just look at the current inventories and current sales rates and you'll see that many property types have years of inventory. Last time I looked, there was 10 years of residential land in inventory in SoWal. Of course, that number can drop quickly if we see even a slight upswing in the selling activity (20 lots a months with 2400 lots available vs. 40 lots a month with 2400 lots available is 10 years vs 5 years of inventory). It's gut check time and if you never intended to be in it for the long haul you've got to do the math and take the emotion out of it.

[SHELLY]

We help educate our clients about what will sell and what will not. If they can not come to terms with what you are telling them, they fire you, or you fire them. The property will not sell anyway. The longer it sits the value drops. If priced properly it sells. Does this make sense?

It makes perfect sense to me....but for the people who bought when they were told by Realtors that "real estate NEVER, EVER, EVER dropped in value, NEVER EVER...EVER!" it may take some convincing.

.

[Sandcastle]

Doesn't make sense....were you planning on selling your house this summer?


.

Nope. I’m not going to sell the house. If I even thought about that my wife would put out a contract on my carcass and I’d be residing in an urn under my palm tree.

I’ll just stay away from the computer while I’m trying to enjoy a martini and watch the sunset.

[2bfabian]

For what ever it's worth,my opinion is people don't buy stock when it's dropping(unless you plan on selling it short). I like to take Mr. buffet's approach to buy, and that is buy for the long haul. I believe many Realtors have shot themselves in the proverbial foot by coming back to the owners and convincing them to lower their prices. It's my belief this conversation should take place at the beginning and not latter. No one wants to buy a home and have it be worth $20,000 less the next month. It's Realtors who are taking on contracts knowing that there going to have to come back a few months latter and reduce that price that are hurting the market. People want a deal, but guess what even with the market corrections and the prices what they are the buyer in reality is getting a steal on even the prices which many Realtors are convinced are over priced. No one has a problem with someone trying to make their jobs easier but many Realtors are in fact just plain lazy. They were used to the frenzy and then when they had to rely on their own ability to sell a piece of property by knowing something about the area they are just lost. Trust me all those people being convinced to sell now will be sick in the near future. There are wheels being put into motion by people like Chris Corr who will make the Panhandle some of the most sought out property in the country. Like the man said this isn't Detroit, its the most beautiful place in the country to live.

[beachmouse]

One of the things that needs to change is the development of more of a middle class white collar job base. Right now, the bulk of that kind of thing in the area is either DoD-related (which comes with some barriers to entry) or real estate-related (which we're now seeing is highly cyclical)

Someone needs to light a fire under Florida's Great Northwest, and get them to actually go and do something instead of just sticking a massively outdated website up there and expecting the world to come flocking to their door.

There's actually already a pretty decent high tech infrastructure in the area with the DoD interests in Okaloosa and Bay Counties, and a number of pretty huge defense tech players have a presence in the area. It's a big economic strength that no one is really leveraging into anything else right now. We need someone with vision and drive to lure the commercial technology players into the area.

Start getting those kinds of companies in there with $40-$60K a year salaries, and you'll be seeing the $200K-$400K housing market picking right up (I'm assuming a good number of double income families buying homes)

[SHELLY]

Start getting those kinds of companies in there with $40-$60K a year salaries, and you'll be seeing the $200K-$400K housing market picking right up (I'm assuming a good number of double income families buying homes)

Major 'development' in the area lately (aside from condo canyons, vinyl villages and stucco/ss/gct boxes) are "Retail Commons," strip malls, big box stores and food joints....not exactly $40-60K jobs--where do they expect those folks to live?

.

[beachmouse]

Major 'development' in the area lately (aside from condo canyons, vinyl villages and stucco/ss/gct boxes) are "Retail Commons," strip malls, big box stores and food joints....not exactly $40-60K jobs--where do they expect those folks to live?

.

Florala, Alabama? Ponce de Leon? They're tearing out the trailer parks that used to house service workers in Ft. Walton Beach and Niceville in favor of $200K townhomes now, and the commute from the north side of Crestview to the beach these days is horrible.

I remember Heron's Watch was originally supposed to be workforce housing. Two bedroom condos on 30-A that were under $100K and affordable for someone working tables at some of the nicer reastaurants in the area, and if you had roommates to defray costs, you still had money enough left over to spend a couple weeks in Colorado every winter.

[Busta Hustle]

More affordable housing is on the way all over Walton county. I'm pretty sure I just saw 7 townhouses at auction in Heron's Watch. Value is a relative term is it not? I have a hard time seeing value of .08 acre lots at $250K. Now truthiness says Florida real estate is and always has been boom and bust. If you followed your "Madonna/Elvis" realtor advice to purchase in late 04/early 05 frenzy prices you fall into the boob/bust category probably. Our lovely commissioners are spending a great deal of time planning a bottom end housing neighborhood in Freeport. I'm sure all those low price homes are just what the high tech industry employees want. No i'm pretty sure nothing more than more service industry jobs are on the way for Walton. Florida is the sunshine state and could probably be a leader in solar and wind technology along with alternative fuels or green building products and technology industries. There is an abundance of I-10 corridor space and agricultural land available. There could be so much more to Walton than tourism and real estate.

[GoodWitch58]

...and the question becomes: why isn't there more to Walton County than real estate and tourism? What does our Economic Development officer do?

[Smiling JOe]

...and the question becomes: why isn't there more to Walton County than real estate and tourism? What does our Economic Development officer do?

There is this other little thing called Eglin Airforce Base.

Forget about bringing in industries until you create a place for the workforce to live. Just like Publix not opening a store in Ebro prior to the people living there to support the business, big industry will never locate here without the workforce to keep it running efficiently.

[Bobby J]

For what ever it's worth,my opinion is people don't buy stock when it's dropping(unless you plan on selling it short). I like to take Mr. buffet's approach to buy, and that is buy for the long haul. I believe many Realtors have shot themselves in the proverbial foot by coming back to the owners and convincing them to lower their prices. It's my belief this conversation should take place at the beginning and not latter. No one wants to buy a home and have it be worth $20,000 less the next month. It's Realtors who are taking on contracts knowing that there going to have to come back a few months latter and reduce that price that are hurting the market. People want a deal, but guess what even with the market corrections and the prices what they are the buyer in reality is getting a steal on even the prices which many Realtors are convinced are over priced. No one has a problem with someone trying to make their jobs easier but many Realtors are in fact just plain lazy. They were used to the frenzy and then when they had to rely on their own ability to sell a piece of property by knowing something about the area they are just lost. Trust me all those people being convinced to sell now will be sick in the near future. There are wheels being put into motion by people like Chris Corr who will make the Panhandle some of the most sought out property in the country. Like the man said this isn't Detroit, its the most beautiful place in the country to live.

You have many good points but we all are learning daily what this market is doing. If you take a listing and you are the lowest in the neighborhood and 2 months later you still have no activity.... What do you do? Do you tell your folks, no buyers? I think there are buyers everywhere. The buyers do not like the price. They dictate price in a depreciating market. I will be one of the first to declare there is nothing like SOWAL but some folks gotta sell today no matter how beautiful it is. It's about the price not an open house or an ad. Some of us are trying to "convince" people to not sell, but what about the folks that have to?

[Smiling JOe]

For what ever it's worth,my opinion is people don't buy stock when it's dropping(unless you plan on selling it short). I like to take Mr. buffet's approach to buy, and that is buy for the long haul.

I think what you really mean is that the masses don't buy when the price is falling. People who are in it for the long haul, typically buy on a regular basis if they like the stock. There is much to be said for investing against the masses.

[Smiling JOe]

I remember Heron's Watch was originally supposed to be workforce housing. Two bedroom condos on 30-A that were under $100K and affordable for someone working tables at some of the nicer reastaurants in the area, and if you had roommates to defray costs, you still had money enough left over to spend a couple weeks in Colorado every winter.

Point of view apartments was another place where the working folks once lived, then a guy came in and bought them, chopping them into condos, and selling them before running with cash. Much like restaurants in SoWal eventually being priced out, the working class has also been priced out.

[beachmouse]

There is this other little thing called Eglin Airforce Base.

Exactly. Boeing just didn't randomly decide to sponsor the Seniors golf tour stop at Sandestin. There are some people here with pretty amazing knowledge bases and skill sets. I've heard Okaloosa County has the highest per capita number of science and engineering PhDs in the state, even more so than Gainesville or the Space Coast. It's just that they can't really talk much because their thesis topics were often kinda classified.

And there are some really cool infrastructure components available to the civilian/commercial market that the right kind of business would love to be close to. The last time Mr. Mouse flew back from a visit to Michigan, he was seated next to a group of Canadian aircraft developers who were coming down to test engines at Eglin's climate lab because apparently you can't get properly controlled conditions when it's -30 in Moose Jaw.

If the EDC or Florida's Great Northwest were smart, they'd figure out a way to pry Dave Goesch away from OWC and get him doing economic development full time. It seems like he's one of the key movers and shakers right now who's got a really strong big picture view of how great this area could be, and who the EDCs should be reaching out to develop partnerships with.

[egrp]

not sure why we'd want a bunch of corporate employers here? to stabilize the real estate mkt? maybe form more of a community? but if u think sowal is losing its funkiness now, wait until a bunch of corporations open there doors....sheer brutality!!

no thanks...keep sowal a resort/retirement area.

if u buy a $1.5 million dollar vacation home...you should be in a position to not care about declines in the mkt...if you care, u overeached and its gonna hurt. such is life...u decided to enter the game now play by the rules.

[GoodWitch58]

Beachmouse...exactly. That's why if Walton County had an effective economic development director, we could utilize all the wonderful things/people already here to draw compatible business and industry...compatible to both the Air Force effort and the Resort area.

We do need more of a community and one that is environmentally sensitive which the Eglin has always been.

The people who live in $million houses need and want services...It doesn't have to be mutually exclusive, if it's done properly. I know, I know...I am dreaming, but other areas have done it...

[Smiling JOe]

We do need more of a community and one that is environmentally sensitive which the Eglin has always been.

I am trying to think of a way in which Eglin AFB is "environmentally sensitive." I am stumped. Maybe I don't understand the term. I have a good understanding of the phrase, "environmentally friendly," and that comes to mind when I hear your phrase, "envr. sensitive," but maybe I don't have a clue. Will you explain your statement and maybe give three good examples?

[beachmouse]

Eglin Reservation does a ton of enangered species management for the red-cockaded woodpecker, okaloosa darter, assorted beach mice, black bears, etc and has multiple ongoing projects for restoring native longleaf pine forest to its original state. (Though that one's going to take decades) It's also one of the largest designated wilderness areas east of the Mississippi River.

They aren't perfect on environmental issues, but have done enough to get a number of environmental stewardship awards over the years.

but if u think sowal is losing its funkiness now, wait until a bunch of corporations open there doors....sheer brutality!!

I'll gladly take the corporate brutality of a small but lively metro area like Boulder, Colorado or Ann Arbor, Michigan.

But then I've got about zero concern about someone's ability to sell their McCondo for $1.5 million, and a lot of interest in seeing a thriving economically diverse area where my future offspring don't have to chose between living close to family and having a career that's more than just waiting tables or managing a store at the outlet mall.

As it is right now, there just aren't many reasons for the recent college grads to try to come back and live here unless they've got very specific technical skill sets, or feel like they can make a living on comissioned sales. And if you lose the young people in the area, you lose the funkiness and imagination that you claim to want so much.

[trying2makeabuc]

Great thread. I would like to go back to how it started, "How long is a real estate cycle?" Gosh, I wish I knew. My comments below:

1) I don't think anyone "needs" a $1.5 million beach place.

2) Yes, people who own $1.5 million beach places can be just as stupid as people who can't afford them and have to sweat out the payments.

3) Ah, I rememeber way back in 2004 when a 35 year old insurance agent was going to buy a $650,000 lot on spec and was going to have to borrow the down payment. Thankfully, this friend of mine bought a big house with a huge mortgage in Atlanta and at the last minute didn't buy. See, so many of the sales in the 04 era were to investors or tourists who speculated. When the market soured, the investors left. As has been noted, supply and demand, water testers receded, yada, yada, yada and we are waiting now for a little absorption.

4) My beach house is renting more than ever. People are visiting here from IL, MN, MI and Canada in record numbers. This is a great place. People are noticing. Demand will improve prices.

5) as for selling at "wow", why? If you can't afford your house, I am sorry. You will have to dump. (Not as pretty as WoW.) I also own some investment property and I am willing to hold on and pay the carrying costs until the market turns. I like the agent who told me to hold on, that it wasn't a good time to sell.

Being a curious sort, however, I would like to see the harbingers of sales go in the right direction. increased rentals, open houses with lots of traffic, and increased offers (at whatever price, it's still better than no offers.)

Interested in your observations.

[GoodWitch58]

SJ, I think Beachmouse answered as I would have. Eglin probably does more for the native pine trees than any other entity. They do have entire departments devoted to wilderness protection which translates into protection for lots of areas because others use the research and management techniques found (and sometimes created) here by the Air Force.

[2bfabian]

I'm reminded of something I once said,any fool can give a diamond away but it takes a good jeweler to get what it's worth. We go back to my prior statement and that is these Realtors are dropping the prices because many of them did not manage their money during the frenzy, so now they go back to the home owner and out of their desperation (the Realtor) talk Mr and Mrs home owner into thinking there place is not worth anything and to go ahead and drop the price 10-30%. The way they look at it is they need to eat and 3% of something is all they care about. Basically continuing to drop the price and have Mr buyer say wait a minute I was going to buy but I'm just going to hold on longer because the prices will drop more. In the mean time nothing sells even with the continued drop of prices. My simple advice is to hold to your price and realize if you don't it's only going to continue downward. Ask your self with all the price dropping has is caused the market to change. No, and it won't until people realize this is the price to live in paradise. Not everyone needs a graduate degree and not everyone needs to live on the beach. Yes it is expensive but so is good health care. You get what you pay for so stop giving your property away and quit letting these Realtors who have absolutely no loyalty toward the seller and hold to your price. Because if you don't trust me you will be dropping them for the next 5 years. But if you hold to your guns you get the fair price that many are asking for right now but are being talk into giving there places away by Mr and Mrs Realtor.

[SHELLY]

I like the agent who told me to hold on, that it wasn't a good time to sell.

Interested in your observations.

Truth be told, there are a lot of agents who are sweating bullets because they've got their own RE they're trying to unload...and their desperation is doubled since they are getting hammered from both ends (their job income AND their investment outgo--kinda like what the folks at Enron went through).

/

[2bfabian]

A friend once told me that people won't change until they SEE it. I said clarify. He said until they have had that sudden emotional event. I believe Mr and Mrs Realtor still don't SEE whats going on but if they don't stop dropping these prices, trust me they will.

[JoshMclean]

I'm reminded of something I once said,any fool can give a diamond away but it takes a good jeweler to get what it's worth. We go back to my prior statement and that is these Realtors are dropping the prices because many of them did not manage their money during the frenzy, so now they go back to the home owner and out of their desperation (the Realtor) talk Mr and Mrs home owner into thinking there place is not worth anything and to go ahead and drop the price 10-30%. The way they look at it is they need to eat and 3% of something is all they care about. Basically continuing to drop the price and have Mr buyer say wait a minute I was going to buy but I'm just going to hold on longer because the prices will drop more. In the mean time nothing sells even with the continued drop of prices. My simple advice is to hold to your price and realize if you don't it's only going to continue downward. Ask your self with all the price dropping has is caused the market to change. No, and it won't until people realize this is the price to live in paradise. Not everyone needs a graduate degree and not everyone needs to live on the beach. Yes it is expensive but so is good health care. You get what you pay for so stop giving your property away and quit letting these Realtors who have absolutely no loyalty toward the seller and hold to your price. Because if you don't trust me you will be dropping them for the next 5 years. But if you hold to your guns you get the fair price that many are asking for right now but are being talk into giving there places away by Mr and Mrs Realtor.

Looks like someone's property isn't selling. The market will determine what your property is worth my friend. Don't get mad at your neighbors and Realtors because it's not now worth what it was.

[SHELLY]

A friend once told me that people won't change until they SEE it. I said clarify. He said until they have had that sudden emotional event. I believe Mr and Mrs Realtor still don't SEE whats going on but if they don't stop dropping these prices, trust me they will.

I didn't think a realtor drop a price without the seller's consent

/

[Smiling JOe]

SJ, I think Beachmouse answered as I would have. Eglin probably does more for the native pine trees than any other entity. They do have entire departments devoted to wilderness protection which translates into protection for lots of areas because others use the research and management techniques found (and sometimes created) here by the Air Force.

I can see your point. I was too stuck in the idea of all of the jet fuel being burned and the test bombs exploding all night.

[2bfabian]

Well first let me talk to josh. I see you have been trying to give your property away, haven't you? Well, has it sold. NO, I did'nt think so. At any rate I was fortunate to have not dove in and and bought one of those condo's on the beach in 04,but those who did need to sit tight and hold on to their prices or it's going to be bad,bad timez for those realitors convinceing mr seller to gibb it all away you'llz be bezer off because people don't buy on the fall of prices they buy on the rise or bottom. I'm not da moz edumacated person but I doz noze dat. And to shelly I say be nice and more agreeable sometimez