Hurricane Katrina - II

[kurt]

[wintersbk]

Looks much farther west to me.

[kurt]

[kurt]

[Tenn.Guy]

unfortunately, the new forecast shows the wind strength increasing to 115 knots by landfall which makes it a weak cat 4. Bummer for wherever it lands--hope they are dead wrong.

[kurt]

[kurt]

Satellite Loops
visible

Infrared

Water Vapor

[wintersbk]

I'm no weatherman but it sure doesn't look like there is anything in those loops that is going to force this thing northward.

[kurt]

I'm no weatherman but it sure doesn't look like there is anything in those loops that is going to force this thing northward.

I try to glean some of the future direction from the loops but the steering winds are the very high ones which usually don't show on the loops. Sometimes you can see some high clouds on the visible loop.

[Travel2Much]

Having just made the call to have my SoWal house boarded, now it looks like I might be evacuating to SoWal (from New Orleans) in a day or so.

Hurricane Season. Gotta Love it.

[kurt]

Having just made the call to have my SoWal house boarded, now it looks like I might be evacuating to SoWal (from New Orleans) in a day or so.

Hurricane Season. Gotta Love it.

Head west or north.

[Camp Creek Kid]

Check out this link http://www.weatherunderground.com/bl...ters/show.html

Good explanation about Katrina's track. Looks like she is becoming a greater threat to New Orleans. That is very bad. Good news is that Dr. Masters doesn't think she'll reach cat4 because of the dry air from the north. You can see it on Kurt's link of the satellite water vapor loop. The dry air is red.

[JB]

Having just made the call to have my SoWal house boarded, now it looks like I might be evacuating to SoWal (from New Orleans) in a day or so.

Hurricane Season. Gotta Love it.

As mentioned in another thread, if this thing hits NOLA as a Cat 4...well, I just don't want to think about it.

Maybe they're all wrong and it will continue west straight into Mexico.

[tropicwatch]

I think they will shift the model tracks back eastward. After the latest forecast tracks came out, Katrina started showing a northward component to its movement. If this continues, the models will definitely shift eastward again.

Model Tracks & Floater Image

[kurt]

After the latest forecast tracks came out, Katrina started showing a northward component to its movement.
Model Tracks & Floater Image

I don't see it yet - probably a wobble.

4pm CST - KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDTHE WEST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PMEDT.

[JB]

I think they will shift the model tracks back eastward. After the latest forecast tracks came out, Katrina started showing a northward component to its movement. If this continues, the models will definitely shift eastward again.

Model Tracks & Floater Image

Disagree. We need some positive karma here and you ain't providing it, bro.

[tropicwatch]

I would love for it to go to LA. or even furher west. It might have just been a one time wobble. For those with Knology Channel 29 is a radar channel and is set on Katrina. Watching to see if the trend continues.

[Travel2Much]

.... Looks like she is becoming a greater threat to New Orleans. That is very bad. ... .

People here (in NOLA) aren't getting worried at all, yet. Very calm. Just watching it to see when it turns N, which would be the real indicator on probable landfall. If it heads any further west, then there will be pandemonium here tomorrow, but SoWal then might be in the clear. It's that last minute right hook it is supposed to do which alarms me. Ivan was like that--was like a bullet towards NOLA, then turned NE the morning b/f.

[WaltonUndercurrent]

We have a place in the French Quarter in NO that's our second home - a Cat 4 and higher in New Orleans could put water twenty or more feet above our doorstep if the surge from the Lake broke the levies - I don't want it here, but it really doesn't need to go there. Major loss of life, city probably wouldn't be inhabitable for weeks - maybe months. Baad news.

I'm hoping for Mexico or Gary, IN

[Travel2Much]

We have a place in the French Quarter in NO that's our second home - a Cat 4 and higher in New Orleans could put water twenty or more feet above our doorstep if the surge from the Lake broke the levies - I don't want it here, but it really doesn't need to go there. Major loss of life, city probably wouldn't be inhabitable for weeks - maybe months. Baad news.

I'm hoping for Mexico or Gary, IN

Oh please, let's not start yet with the "hurricane hitting NOLA" scenario. I expect it tomorrow night on the evening news ("Well, Bob, we expect that 1/2 will die from the flooding, and the other half 1/2 will die from exposure after being trapped on their roof for days fending off snakes and alligators..." (with nifty simulations on exactly how this will occur)).

It's that little extra lagniappe that makes Louisiana stand apart from the rest.

We'll start freaking (and/or drinking) in a day or so if this continues. The ax, BTW, is to chop through the roof.

[drsvelte]

Check this latest GFS projection:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp..._mu_loop.shtml

Unfortunately, I am in Red Stick right now. Amazingly, there is a lot of complacency here. The TV stations in BR mention a perhaps western shift but not alot of concern. I understand that NOLA TV is about the same. Not good.

It looks like an Andrew wannabe.

[lollygal]

Disagree. We need some positive karma here and you ain't providing it, bro.

Amen, brother!

[WaltonUndercurrent]

Well, thanks Travel2Much. I'm well known as an overly dramatic cry baby lose my **** at the first sign of trouble sorta guy. Thanks for slapping me sober. I feel much better now.

[aquaticbiology]

Finally read the old Katrina thread - best was (paraphrased) "maybe we'll see how the GeoTubes do".

And so, just for kicks (and since there's really nothing we can do about it anyway regardless until Monday AM), and just in case it does hit or affect the area, betting may now begin on the following:

GeoTubes:

1) Missing (and not abducted by aliens thinking they were huge albino cows)

2) Popped (with the appropriate leaking of yecchy fill)

3) Intact (whether or not they did their job of protecting whatever)

GeoTube Impact:

1) Nothing Whatsoever (No worse or better protection, no sand capture)

2) Worse! (This does not include yecchy fill leaks, but washouts behind, etc)

3) Amazing! (It protected the beach and there's sand dunes up to the sky!)

I say:

Five bucks on missing GeoTubes.

and

Five bucks on a popped Tube mess, but the tubes are still there.

Put a drink in those wringing hands and relax until there's more data.

oh yeah, five more on Worse! (almost too relaxed!)

[aquaticbiology]

And no huge bets on popped Tubes and Navy Seal knife work in the middle of the night, ya'll!

That's it - relax.

[pgurney]

Here comes a really boring post. Borage, but heartfelt.

Folks, I'd like to point out here that we're not out of the woods. The models have recently shifted west to the Mississippi area, but this type of storm is very hard to predict....both the path and the intensity. Any slight change of path when a recurvature is predicted can amount to a very large difference in landfall location. Please don't get complacent now. This could be a very serious storm and it still has the possibility of turning this way...and it could do that with little warning. Stay on the toes por favor?

[JB]

Here comes a really boring post. Borage, but heartfelt.

Folks, I'd like to point out here that we're not out of the woods. The models have recently shifted west to the Mississippi area, but this type of storm is very hard to predict....both the path and the intensity. Any slight change of path when a recurvature is predicted can amount to a very large difference in landfall location. Please don't get complacent now. This could be a very serious storm and it still has the possibility of turning this way...and it could do that with little warning. Stay on the toes por favor?

Truer words have never been spoken. I will not begin to relax until it has passed 87 degrees longitude with no significant northerly turn. I imagine I will wake up several times during the night to check position/model changes.

[pgurney]

Oh no! This is really, really not a good thing. A hit on New Orleans like this would be catastrophic. Keep going west!

[Miss Kitty]

IMHO...Be careful what you wish for...and remember it's all wishful thinking! I continue to keep an eye on the storm...but, I'm trying my best to not watch TWC!!!

[aquaticbiology]

Data coming in (at last)

from the data bouy 260 nm South of Panama City, FL
at 26°00'32"N 85°54'50"W:
--------------------
Wind Speed: 33 knots
Gusts To: 38 knots
Wave Height: 20 feet

from the data facility at the PCB fishing pier:
-------------------
Wind Speed: 10 knots
Gusts To: 15 knots
Wave Height: not measured

The hurricane is still way more than 200 miles offshore, therefore computer models can be pretty much ignored, however it seems to generally still want to go to NOLA.

Marine forecast now includes the forboding Ivan-esque statement:
"WINDS AND SEAS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN KATRINA TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH."
In other words, contact with the front is what's going to turn Katrina north again, like a bumber on a pinball machine. It wants to keep going west but instead tracks right up the front (deja vu anyone?).

Enough doom and gloom, have a banana and go for a walk on a local beach wherever you are. Thought for today: There is sand everywhere in the world.

[kurt]

Let's hope the magnet doesn't move any closer to us.

[kurt]

[kurt]

Phil Coale AP

[Kimmifunn]

Word on the street my boyfriend Jim is in Biloxi.

Looking at the path it looks like y'all should be relatively ok... I know it could change, ect. ect. but from what I just saw Sowal may not get the brunt of it.

You know who is really suffering? Diddy. Because he wants a WHITE carpet at the VMAs. And Katrina ruined that for him. Let's think of him for once.

[Seasider]

I heard that Jim stayed over in SoWal last night. I'm glad he moved west early this morning.

[Moondance]

Word on the street my boyfriend Jim is in Biloxi.

[Kimmifunn]

Busted!

[seagrovelover]

kurt...where was this picture taken????

[Beach Runner]

kurt...where was this picture taken????

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution printed this photo on 7/12 and said it was in Destin. They did not say exactly where.

[kurt]

kurt...where was this picture taken????

I don't know it was labeled as Dennis. That is some good engineering and construction. Just too close to the Gulf.

[Bob]

Busted!

Would Flava give Jim a hard time?

[Beach Runner]

Here's where I first saw the photo - the 7/12 Atlanta paper.

[tropicwatch]

The question is how soon and how fast will Katrina turn northward. And also will it make one of those right turns before it makes landfall. Earlier it looked like the turn was begining but it still seems almost due west right now.Model Tracks & Floater Image

[SeacrestBabY]

Looks like you guys may be clear! I was just there a couple of weeks ago and everyone was still cleaning up the previous hurricane mess. Good luck! ;)

[kurt]

Looks like you guys may be clear! I was just there a couple of weeks ago and everyone was still cleaning up the previous hurricane mess. Good luck! ;)

[aquaticbiology]

I choose the UKMET model as the best. Completely off the top of my head, no history or anything. After all, I'm not a atmospheric scientist or oceanographer, just a aquatic biologist (formerly marine biologist). Got to keep reminding myself of that. Weather Channel screaming that this one will be as bad or worse than Camille. Hmpf. Hope it goes to Mexico so Jim can go catch something. Anybody in Biloxi we know? Paint up a SOWal sign at least!

[aquaticbiology]

You are getting SLEEEEEEPY....Look deeeeep into my THIIIIRD EYE...I am a hurricane MAAAGNET!

[Miss Kitty]

You are getting SLEEEEEEPY....Look deeeeep into my THIIIIRD EYE...I am a hurricane MAAAGNET!

mb451, you are in very good form today!!! That is hysterical and scary at the same time!!! I am boycotting TWC today and it feel so empowering! thanks to the good poster that suggested we revolt!

[Smiling JOe]

Hurricane Katrina Aug 27 2005

[Excalibur]

WWW.WGTX.COM



HURRICANE KATRINA
STATEWIDE RESPONSE BRIEFING SHEET
August 27, 2005: afternoon

***The information below represents the best available information at the
time of this release. Floridians are encouraged to contact their local
authorities for additional information as it becomes available.***

County Evacuations

The following evacuations still remain in effect:

· Okaloosa: Voluntary Evacuation

For additional information pertaining to county evacuations, curfews and
re-entry, please contact the local county emergency operations center.


Shelters:
Shelter totals reflect that general and special needs shelters may
coincide.
· 3 Total Shelters: Population Total 233
· 3 General Shelters:
o Broward: 1 Shelter, Population 7
o Miami-Dade: 2 Shelters, Population 226
· There are no patients currently in Special Needs Shelters

For additional information pertaining to shelters, please contact the local
county emergency operations center.


Law Enforcement and Military Support
Florida National Guard: 716

Transportation

Road/Bridge Closures
· All roads on the state road system are open.

Tolls
· Tolls on Florida’s Turnpike have been reinstated in Palm Beach and
Broward counties.
· Effective 6:00 am, toll collection has been reinstated in the
Turnpike's Ticket System Three Lakes Toll Plaza to Okeechobee Road, US
27 in Miami Dade County.
· The Sawgrass Expressway and westbound I-75/Alligator Alley have
also been reinstated.
· Tolls remain suspended on Florida's Turnpike in both directions
from Florida City, MP 1 to Northwest 106 Street, MP 34.

Airports
Public-use airports and military airfields reported as CLOSED:
· Dade-Collier Training and Transition (TNT), Miami-Dade County,
currently closed until further notice
· Key West International (EYW), Monroe County, currently closed
until further notice
· The Florida Keys Marathon (MTH), Monroe County, currently closed
until further notice
· Tyndall AFB (PAM), Bay County, airport closed from 6:30 PM (L)
8/27/05 until 7:00 AM (L) 8/30/05
· Whiting Field NAS North (NSE), Santa Rosa County, airport closed
from 6:00 PM (L) 8/28/05 until 7:30 AM (L) 8/30/05
· Whiting Field NAS South (NDZ), Santa Rosa County, airport closed
from 6:00 PM (L) 8/28/05 until 12:00 AM (L) 8/30/05

Public-use and military airfields in Florida are being reported as "OPEN"
but have operational limitations:
· Duke Field (EGI), Okaloosa County, airport is open to aircraft on
"Official Business Only until 12:00 PM (L) 8/31/05
· Eglin AFB (VPS), Okaloosa County, airport is open to aircraft on
"Official Business Only until 7:00 PM (L) 9/1/05
· MacDill AFB (MCF), Hillsborough County, airport is open to
aircraft on "Official Business Only" for the period 6:00 PM (L) 8/25/05
until 12:00 PM (L) 8/29/05

Water Notices
· None reported at this time.

For county specific information pertaining to areas under boil water
advisories, please contact the local county emergency operations center.

Fatalities Confirmed by Medical Examiner

Total hurricane related fatalities confirmed statewide by the Florida
Department of Law Enforcement:
· Broward County: 4


For more information, please visit www.FloridaDisaster.org.


###



HURRICANE KATRINA
POWER BRIEFING SHEET
As of 3 p.m., August 27, 2005

***The information below represents the best available information at the
time of this release. Floridians are encouraged to contact their local
authorities for additional information as it becomes available.***

SUMMARY
After the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in South Florida, close to 746,800
customers across four counties are affected by power outages.

Power outages are affecting approximately 736,800 FPL customers, 9,800
municipal customers and 200 cooperative customers.

COUNTY BY COUNTY BREAKDOWN

BROWARD COUNTY
· 32% of total customers without power.
· Approximately 281,200 of 880,207 FPL customers without power.

COLLIER COUNTY
· 100% of power restored.

DADE COUNTY
· 46% of total customers without power.
· Approximately 455,600 of 968,480 FPL customers without power.
· Approximately 1,800 municipal customers without power.

MONROE COUNTY
· 14% of total customers without power.
· Approximately 200 of 30,952 cooperative customers without power.
· Approximately 8,000 municipal customers without power.

PALM BEACH COUNTY
· 100% of power restored.

# # #




ESF 14 -External Affairs / Public Information Office
Florida State Emergency Response Team