Hurricane Katrina - II

[Excalibur]

WWW.WGTX.COM

Please see below information from Louisiana.

----- Forwarded by ESF14/StateEOC/FLEOC on 08/27/2005 06:01 PM -----

Evacuation Information from the State of Louisiana

The state of Louisiana has informed motorists and transportation officials
in surrounding states of the following evacuation route information:
· Interstate 55 has been one-wayed (contra-flowed) north
· Interstate 59 has been one-wayed (contra-flowed) north
· Interstate 10 has been one-wayed (contra-flowed) west
· Interstate 12 has been one-wayed (contra-flowed) west
· Interstate 10 has been closed to westbound traffic at the
Louisiana state line

Motorists are instructed to pay attention to roadway message boards for any
changes in highway conditions.

More information can be found at www.dotd.state.la.us/maps/ or by calling
the Louisiana state Road Information Hotline, 1-800-469-4828.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like Katrina is a little east and norh of the NHC's center forecast track from 4pm.

East of Track

Model Tracks & Floater Image

[Bob]

I choose the UKMET model as the best. Completely off the top of my head, no history or anything. After all, I'm not a atmospheric scientist or oceanographer, just a aquatic biologist (formerly marine biologist). Got to keep reminding myself of that. Weather Channel screaming that this one will be as bad or worse than Camille. Hmpf. Hope it goes to Mexico so Jim can go catch something. Anybody in Biloxi we know? Paint up a SOWal sign at least!

I remember, as a kid, driving through Biloxi a year after Camille[1970?], and being amazed at the destruction. Could be wrong, but wasn't that the worst storm to hit the Gulf Coast in the last 50 years???

[katie blue]

The satellite animation is striking.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA...-vis-loop.html

[Miss Kitty]

I remember, as a kid, driving through Biloxi a year after Camille[1970?], and being amazed at the destruction. Could be wrong, but wasn't that the worst storm to hit the Gulf Coast in the last 50 years???

I think you are correct. We used to vacation at the Broadwater Beach in Biloxi and I remember the destruction as well. I also remember the stories of the people that decided to ride out the storm...not a good choice.

[Beachlover2]

CAT 5 - This is too sad!!!!

Hopefully people are heeding the warnings

[aquaticbiology]

Only thing I remember about Camille (way back in 1969) was seeing a set of apartment/condos, and all the stuff in them, blown out like so many stacked shotgun shells and being amazed just how far the carpet of crap went.

All the channels are making a field day out of Katrina so we can't be too hard on The Weather Channel (except for where Jimmy is concerned - if you've ever seen his act in person you'd know why-most arrogant person I've ever met-would probably set his own mother's house on fire to get the coverage- although I haven't met Earl in Gulf Trace. There was no The Weather Channel when I was out in Hawaii during Dennis and I actually missed it.

Did anyone else notice the skip in the satellite images from Cat 3 to instant Cat 5 with highly defined eyewall? It's in all the paranoia, I suppose, but what are they trying to hide, hmmmm? (Cue Jimmy broadcasting from the alien spaceship...)

I notice the fishing boats are out in Biloxi (behind Jimmy's head) per usual. Don't know if I'd want to be on one of them seeing as how it's still 240 miles out, and that's over 200 miles and predictability is still not that great until less than 200 miles. Remember Hurricane Bill? Every day they said it would 'have to' make landfall, and it just wandered all over the place for days, but Bill wasn't a Category 5 (not the cable, but the scale). From looking at the excruciatingly slow turn of the track, Katrina still wants to go to Mexico, and I think she should be allowed to go. We'll get those chaperones that went to Aruba to go along so she'll be 'safe'.

Bouy Data:
oh, just get your own, at:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_sear...ist=250&time=3

[tropicwatch]

Camille
Date Time Lat Lon Winds Pressure
08/18/1969 3:00 AM 29.24N 89.60W 190mph 909mb

Model Tracks & Floater Image

[wetwilly]

I'm still concerned about the surge damage in SoWal even though the storm is appearing to head quite a bit west of Pensacola. The storm is so large and now 150mph (Cat 5) and moving at 12mph (up from 7-8). If it does hit NOLA, does anyone have a guess at to any damage to the dunes/beaches in SoWal?

How does the surf look now? I'm sure it is picking up. Red flags?

[aquaticbiology]

You can be of two schools of thought on Katrina (and hurricanes in general):

1) The wringing of hands:
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...ricane_katrina

or

2) The surfing of waves: http://www.mrsurfs.com/surf_report.php

I choose the latter, since a long, long time ago my dad once said about a hurricane: "I dare you to stop it coming this way."

[tropicwatch]

I'm still concerned about the surge damage in SoWal even though the storm is appearing to head quite a bit west of Pensacola. The storm is so large and now 150mph (Cat 5) and moving at 12mph (up from 7-8). If it does hit NOLA, does anyone have a guess at to any damage to the dunes/beaches in SoWal?

How does the surf look now? I'm sure it is picking up. Red flags?

Law Enforcenment in Walton County are reporting 10ft waves and the sand that was replenished after Dennis has washed away.

[aquaticbiology]

And finally, before I take my morning walk on the beach (next to a really big lake) I'd just like to say:

MMM - MM - MMMM - MMMM - MMMMMMMM! There's that lovely empty beach again with no backhoes or bulldozers or chairs or tents or cars...
I LIKE IT! Show's you what common-sense legislation and beach renourishment by dredging can do.

[Moondance]

Law Enforcenment in Walton County are reporting 10ft waves and the sand that was replenished after Dennis has washed away.

I hope this is not the case, but I have no reason to doubt the info... Keep in mind that a given storm can be either "net negative" or "net positive" in terms of sand deposits. An example of both in one shot, courtesy of kurt, is below (keep your fingers crossed for "net positive"):

[wetwilly]

Yeah we need the "net positive" to come to SoWal after this one blows thru. If the info is true and the post Dennis sand deposits are already gone, then we only hope that thru the next few days the during/after storm surge deposits some same sand up on the beaches of SoWal.

BTW, even if this storm hits NOLA, it looks like the areas of east of it (Mobile, Gulfshores, Pensacola, Navarre, Ft Walton, and even Destin) will get the wicked eastend kick on this one.

I just hope the folks in the NOLA and Miss area are heeding this warnings. They have turned all lanes out of the gulf coast of Miss and LA North to to try and get the people out. NOLA is below sealevel and that makes for a big problem as this looks like a direct hit based on the tracks now.

[whiteyfunn]

can anyone figure out why when even a cat 3 comes to SoWal there is a mandatory evacuation and then I just heard on the news that Katrina is a cat 5 and there is only a voluntary evacuation for the NOLA area

Someone enlighten me!!!

[wintersbk]

I just got word they are reporting 20' - 25' waves in the panhandle once this storm nears NOLA? Can this be?

Those models they just showed did not look good. Please all, stay safe!

[Miss Kitty]

News has been reporting all morning that they are just waiting for the Mayor of NO to announce the mandatory evacuation....what is he waiting for?

[Smiling JOe]

Kurt has been out in the field, and just called with a live report from Grayton Beach and Gulf Trace. At Grayton, water is up to the boardwalk. We are still about 36 hours from Katrina making landfall. In Gulf Trace, water is up to the Gulf-front houses, and is about to cover the geotubes and the piles of broken concrete. [Those houses will not be there tomorrow afternoon in my(SJ's) opinion.] It is going to be rough.

[tropicwatch]

News has been reporting all morning that they are just waiting for the Mayor of NO to announce the mandatory evacuation....what is he waiting for?

He is waiting for his advisors to give him the results of an opinion poll. Who knows what he is waiting for!?

[Miss Kitty]

He is waiting for his advisors to give him the results of an opinion poll. Who knows what he is waiting for!?

His waiting might cause utter pandemonium...I am so worried about those people!

[whiteyfunn]

Oh, and I know this is off the subject...but it makes me laugh.

I got into an argument yesterday with someone from NOLA. They thought that the safe side of a hurricane was the east side (or the right side). And, we all know that is NOT right! I explained Ivan's path...blah blah blah it hit Gulf Shores... that's how Pensacola was destroyed...blah blah blah. She didn't get it.

I just hope everyone can get to safety in time.

[katie blue]

Seacrest area: At 8 am, with tide about 4 hours past high mark, intermittent waves were lapping the bottom 1-2 feet of the walkovers and beginning to eat at the new/scraped dunes. Debris beginning to collect on the berm. We're packing up and heading out. Much love and luck to all, catch you on the other side.

[wetwilly]

I saw the mayor of NOLA on the news last night (11pm et) and I could not believe that they were just under a voluntary evacuation. Then I was in disbelief this morning when they still had not gone to mandatory evac. My only guess is that they have some timelines and guidelines for escalation to mandatory. Also, they probably are trying not to cause a total panic. One big issue I heard about today was that there are many people in NOLA that do not have any personal transportation (car, truck). Not a good situation at all based on the size, strength, and expected rainfall associated with this storm.

Sounds like from SJs report of Kurt's field recon that SoWal beaches and dunes are going to get a big dose of mother nature even though this storm is much further west than Dennis. I just saw a report that said Katrina will affect 170 miles along the gulfcoast because of its size and strength. This beast came out of nowhere and the "little" Cat 1 that hit SOFLA is now expected to be worse than Camille in size and maybe strength.

Thoughts and prayers go out to all along the gulf coast especially NOLA. Unbelieveable.

[beachmouse]

Discussion on the storm2k.org boards is that it hasn't been mandatory yet because of legal reasons- the mayor has no actual authority to close down the hospitals and hotels. I guess the laws are different there.

[wetwilly]

Kurt has been out in the field, and just called with a live report from Grayton Beach and Gulf Trace. At Grayton, water is up to the boardwalk. We are still about 36 hours from Katrina making landfall. In Gulf Trace, water is up to the Gulf-front houses, and is about to cover the geotubes and the piles of broken concrete. [Those houses will not be there tomorrow afternoon in my(SJ's) opinion.] It is going to be rough.

SJ,

Thanks for the up to the minute info on SoWal and how the area is doing while Katrina churns up the gulf. Being remote watching TWC and looking at weather web sites does not give us the real story. Thanks to you, Kurt and all of the locals for the posts. I just saw a picture of the Pensacola pier and the wave action there is getting very rough.

Keep the reports coming (even if they are not positive) and please stay safe and keep out of harms way. This board will be our only direct lifeline to SoWal until we drive down this Friday for the Laborday weekend. We hope the dunes and beach are still there for us to enjoy but we (me, wife, and 3 boys) will look to volunteer and do cleanup duty if/where needed.

Thanks again.

[pgurney]

I just got word they are reporting 20' - 25' waves in the panhandle once this storm nears NOLA? Can this be?

Those models they just showed did not look good. Please all, stay safe!

Wave forecast:
http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/images/caanim.gif

[Travel2Much]

News has been reporting all morning that they are just waiting for the Mayor of NO to announce the mandatory evacuation....what is he waiting for?

That he just did is indicative that we who live in NOLA are all ******.

The reason why New Orleans doesn't do mandatory evacuations, from what I have heard, is that it is impossible to evacuate the city, really, even with contraflow. I think there is some legal reason following from that (responsibility for harm due to telling people to go who can't go? Dunno, never figured it out). Plus, there are no shelters. The Red Cross won't go anywhere South of I-12. The city-run "shelters" he just announced are pretty grim not to mention only marginally safer than your house.

Everyone who lives in NOLA knows Nagin's "voluntary evacuation" means "get out quickly if you can". That's what I did last night.

But, the reality is that there will be 100s of thousands of people left in the city, I would bet. New Orleans is very poor. Many can't just hop into their SUV.

[futurebeachbum]

From the Nat'l Hurricane Site -
<a href=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml>Record Hurricanes </a>

Camille was second at 909 mB
Andrew was third at 922 mB

As you look at this, I just heard on the Weather Channel that Katrina is at 175 mph and 904 mB. Ouch!

And there is nothing to slow it down until it reaches land.

[WaltonUndercurrent]

Back to my earlier post that Travl felt was too dramatic but evidently wasn't. It's sad. Most of the people who live in the city don't have the ability to evacuate - many don't have automobiles and use public transportation and those that do won't have the money for gas and other expenses associated with evac. Hopefully, if it's as bad as the worse scenerios, the Federal government will really dump all their resources in putting the city back together and repairing al the historic structures. Hopefully, also they Feds will work with the state to finally come up with solutions to help prevent this from happening again.

I'll volunteer to help afterwards because I love the City and it's history.

[Excalibur]

WWW.WGTX.COM

We Obviously are facing a Extremely Dangerous situation, although at this point not as bad as LA and MS. the storm could possibly hook right a little east and change some of the equation.

WGTX AM 1280 - Nobody is mentioning this so I will be the first to do so. :!: GET GAS! :!: If Katrina Hits LA and MS that is where our area gets all of it's gas, the refineries will be closed or shut down, and the waterway route from there to here will be clogged with Debris and no barge would be able to get through!

:!: GET GAS :!:

[Miss Kitty]

SJ,

Thanks for the up to the minute info on SoWal and how the area is doing while Katrina churns up the gulf. Being remote watching TWC and looking at weather web sites does not give us the real story. Thanks to you, Kurt and all of the locals for the posts. I just saw a picture of the Pensacola pier and the wave action there is getting very rough.

Keep the reports coming (even if they are not positive) and please stay safe and keep out of harms way. This board will be our only direct lifeline to SoWal until we drive down this Friday for the Laborday weekend. We hope the dunes and beach are still there for us to enjoy but we (me, wife, and 3 boys) will look to volunteer and do cleanup duty if/where needed.

Thanks again.

You are definitely in the right place on this board. I am fairly certain that I can speak for everyone who has used this board as an info gathering tool during past storms that Kurt, SJ and other selfless locals are our heroes! These people have a very special place in my heart...they really want us to know what is going on and care so much for the area that I feel calm when they post any info! Bless SoWal and it's caretakers!!! You guys rock!

[kurt]

As reported the surf is already up to the walkovers and close to the dunes. Almost all the sand that was scraped at Seaside into big piles is gone already and the winds are still out of the east. When they turn and start onshore we will have serious problems I'm afraid. Photos to come later today.

God Bless the city of New Orleans.

[Moondance]

You are definitely in the right place on this board. I am fairly certain that I can speak for everyone who has used this board as an info gathering tool during past storms that Kurt, SJ and other selfless locals are our heroes! These people have a very special place in my heart...they really want us to know what is going on and care so much for the area that I feel calm when they post any info! Bless SoWal and it's caretakers!!! You guys rock!

Kurt, SJ, others, all:

We are hanging on every word and every scrap of info. Please keep the info and precautions coming, but stay safe and make good decisions. I know you will, and your experience and insight is invaluable to the rest of us.

We can not thank you enough... but "Thanks."

[Excalibur]

WWW.WGTX.COM

EOC
KATRINA.NOW EVEN STRONGER.CONTINUES TOWARD THE NO. CNTL
GULF COAST AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM
DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS.

AREAS AFFECTED.
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE COAST.INCLUDING COASTAL WALTON.BAY &
GULF COUNTIES.

WATCH & WARNING INFORMATION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN
PASS IN GULF COUNTY FL. THIS MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS.

STORM INFORMATION.
AT 10 AM CDT.EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE KATRINA WAS
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 DEGREES NORTH.LONGITUDE 88.1 DEGREES
WEST.OR ABOUT 225 MILES SO. SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MS RIVER. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 315 MILES SO. SW OF
PANAMA CITY FL. KATRINA IS MOVING TO THE WEST NW AT 12
MPH. THE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 175 MPH. THIS
MAKES KATRINA A VERY DANGEROUS & DESTRUCTIVE CATEGORY FIVE ON THE
SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE INTENSITY SCALE. THE MIN CNTL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 907 MILLIBARS. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST INTENSITY CHANGES OF MAJOR HURRICANES.SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING MAY BE POSSIBLE. KATRINA CONTINUES TO EXPAND HER WIND
FIELD. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD TO 205 MILES.
EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE FL PANHANDLE.THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND
THE POSSIBILITY THAT KATRINA MIGHT MAKE LANDFALL A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE EAST THAN EXPECTED COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE LATER TODAY & MONDAY.

PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.
RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE WARNED AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. SECURE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE
CANS.PATIO FURNITURE OR OTHER ITEMS THAT COULD EASILY BE PICKED UP
BY GUSTY WINDS. TAKE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO PROTECT AGAINST COASTAL
FLOODING.ESPECIALLY SINCE SO MUCH SAND WAS WASHED AWAY BY
HURRICANE DENNIS LAST MONTH. LOW LYING AREAS & LOCATIONS ON BAYS
AND INLETS WILL BE EVEN MORE PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING. BE PREPARED
TO EVACUATE IF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ORDER AN EVACUATION.

STORM SURGE FLOOD & STORM TIDE IMPACTS.
HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS LARGE SWELLS EMANATE FROM
HURRICANE KATRINA. LAW ENFORCEMENT IN WALTON COUNTY HAVE REPORTED
WAVES UP TO 10 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE.WHICH HAS CAUSED MUCH OF THE
REPLACEMENT SAND FOR HURRICANE DENNIS TO BE WASHED AWAY. THE SURF
WILL ONLY GROW LARGER AS KATRINA APPROACHES THE CNTL GULF COAST.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WILL PRODUCE TIDES OF 4
TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PANHANDLE. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
AND HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION & COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH
MONDAY.ESPECIALLY AROUND & AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE BEACHES
OF WALTON COUNTY WERE CLOSED AS OF 8 AM CDT TODAY. THE FOLLOWING ARE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

APALACHICOLA.924 AM EDT SUN & 1037 AM MONDAY.

SAINT ANDREWS BAY AT PANAMA CITY.618 AM CDT MONDAY.

EAST PASS AT DESTIN.648 CDT MONDAY.

WIND IMPACTS.
THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. THIS
WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.MAINLY IN SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA. SUCH WINDS TYPICALLY
CAUSE SEVERAL DOWNED TREE BRANCHES.A FEW DOWNED POWER LINES &
POWER OUTAGES.TIPPED OVER GARBAGE CANS & PATIO FURNITURE & A
FEW UPROOTED TREES.

RAINFALL & FLOOD POTENTIAL.
THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH TUES IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES.WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING FARTHER
WEST. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING & POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
HOWEVER.WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

TORNADO THREAT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
EVERYONE.INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS.SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE
SURF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATL
WEATHER SVC IN TALLAHASSEE BY 300 PM EDT (200 PM CDT).

$$

38-GODSEY

[Excalibur]

WWW.WGTX.COM


MEDIA ADVISORY - STATE BUILDING CLOSURES
~ Please share with local affiliates ~

TALLAHASSEE - The approach of Hurricane Katrina has necessitated the
closure of the following DMS pool facilities effective August 29, 2005:


Escambia County
James Building
160 Governmental Center
Pensacola, Florida 32501
Agencies impacted: DEP, DOE, DCF, APD, AHCA, FDLE, DMS


The Department of Management Services closes DMS Pool Facilities in
affected counties during disaster/emergency situations based on; local
government's decision to close offices, mandatory evacuation notice for
the area or declaration of a local state of emergency. Office closures
for non-pool facilities will continue to be left to the discretion of
the agency head in the affected areas.


For more information, please log on to the Florida Division of Emergency
Management's website at www.FloridaDisaster.org
<www.FloridaDisaster.org> .


# # #

Please note: Florida has a very broad public records law. Most written
communications to or from state officials regarding state business are
public records available to the public and media upon request. Your e-mail
communications may be subject to public disclosure.

[Travel2Much]

Back to my earlier post that Travl felt was too dramatic but evidently wasn't....

Nope, didn't feel it was too dramatic, rather as a long-time NOLA resident know the story cold, as most do. It is really disconcerting, living in NOLA, to have the national media sensationalizing the potential harm when you are living there. We don't need the tv drama, just want to save our lives and stuff.

People in NOLA are taking this very seriously.

[TooFarTampa]

Kurt, SJ, others, all:

We are hanging on every word and every scrap of info. Please keep the info and precautions coming, but stay safe and make good decisions. I know you will, and your experience and insight is invaluable to the rest of us.

We can not thank you enough... but "Thanks."

I could not have said it better. Thanks you guys and stay safe.

T2M and all of New Orleans ... you are in my prayers.

[wetwilly]

TWC is doing a big, very informative (non sensationalizing) story on NOLA and Hurricanes and their issues. They are stating that the pumps in the city of NOLA can pump an inch a minute but with a slow moving Cat 4/5 they will be overwhelmed.

Dr Steve Lyons and others are saying that the best case scenario for NOLA is if it hits just east of NOLA. The biggest issues is with the lake on one side, the river on the other and the city being below sealevel that the hit is one thing but then the rains and flooding will be the paramount issue.

Big time flooding and health issues in the aftermath is the bigger long, term issue. Now they are showing Gulfshores, Al and they are stating the "beaches are gone..." but they just restated that everyone and everything is off of the beach "NOT THAT THE BEACHES ARE GONE". The surf looks 6-8 ft swells.

As said, all of us in remote northern areas are praying for all on the Gulf especially NOLA. Stay safe and take all precautions.