What to expect this winter... a report by Dr Jeff Masters

**Smiling JOe** · 08-25-2007, 11:35 PM

Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:44 AM EDT on August 24, 2007

Sea ice in the Arctic continues its record decline, thanks to unusually cloud-free conditions and above-average temperatures. For August 21, the National Snow and Ice Data Center estimated that fully one third of the Arctic ice cap was missing, compared to the average levels observed on that date from 1979-2000. Sea ice extent was 4.92 million square kilometers on August 21, and the 1979-2000 average for the date was about 7.3 million square kilometers. Arctic sea ice has fallen below the record low absolute minimum of 4.92 million square kilometers set in 2005 by about 8%, with another 3-5 weeks of the melting season still remaining. Reliable records of sea ice coverage go back to 1979.

Figure 1. Extent of the polar sea ice on August 21, compared to the average for the date from the 1979-2000 period (pink line). Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

With one third of the Arctic ice cap already gone, and another month of melting to go, we need to consider what effect this will have on weather, climate, and sea level rise. Well, we don't need to worry about sea level rise, since the polar sea ice is already in the ocean, and won't appreciably change sea level when it melts. However, the remarkable melting of the ice cap will likely lead to unusual weather patterns this fall and winter. The lack of sea ice will put much more heat and moisture into the polar atmosphere, affecting the path of the jet stream and the resultant storm tracks. Expect a much-delayed arrival of winter to the Northern Hemisphere again this year, which may lead to further accelerated melting of the ice cap in future years.

**LightWorker** · 08-26-2007, 12:22 AM

Thank you for the info and the site is now in my fav's. I also keep an eye on earthquakes and something is a little off with them as well.

**seacrestkristi** · 08-26-2007, 07:42 AM

Did anyone see these surfers who were surfing off waves made by glaciers breakin' apart on tv??? I think Discovery. Jet skis or helicopters dropped 'em on to the wave. Holy Mackerel, Batman! Talk about big kahunas.

**30A Skunkape** · 08-26-2007, 09:46 AM

Originally Posted by seacrestkristi

Did anyone see these surfers who were surfing off waves made by glaciers breakin' apart on tv??? I think Discovery. Jet skis or helicopters dropped 'em on to the wave. Holy Mackerel, Batman! Talk about big kahunas.

Yeah! COLD KAHUNAS!

**Allifunn** · 08-26-2007, 03:28 PM

I watched "The Day After Tomorrow" the other night....love the movie but it makes you wonder just what ol' mom nature has in store for us....

**Biff** · 08-27-2007, 09:06 AM

Farmers Almanac; OK weather forecast

Cold and snowy weather should also prevail over the Great Lakes region. Even as far south as the central and eastern Gulf Coast, unseasonably chilly temperatures will prevail. In contrast, the Great Plains, the Rocky Mountains, the Southwest desert, and the Pacific Coast should enjoy a relatively mild and somewhat drier than normal winter overall. For some locations, the amount of wintertime precipitation � rain or snow � could average from one quarter to as much as one half below the seasonal norm. Quite a contrast to last year.
And near and along the boundary zone between the mild, tranquil West and the cold, stormy East, we look for some large-scale weather vacillations: from wintry to spring like and back to wintry, almost like a meteorological pendulum undergoing a series of pretty wild swings.