Hurricane Gustav

PC · 08-25-2008, 10:39 AM

This thing could become a monster, lets pray it does not!!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...&tstamp=200808

**seagrovegirl** · 08-25-2008, 10:48 AM

Uh oh...............

PC · 08-25-2008, 10:57 AM

Thats what I said, especially since we will be there in two weeks. Sowal that is.....

**Smiling JOe** · 08-25-2008, 10:57 AM

**SHELLY** · 08-25-2008, 11:46 AM

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/map...tav_track.html

**scooterbug44** · 08-25-2008, 01:24 PM

Hello Gustav!

Winds are up to 60 mph already!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/181113.shtml?5day?large#contents

**Alicia Leonard** · 08-25-2008, 02:05 PM

Originally Posted by scooterbug44

Hello Gustav!

Winds are up to 60 mph already!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/181113.shtml?5day?large#contents

Why does this name make me think of Ivan

**scooterbug44** · 08-25-2008, 02:10 PM

'Cause it sounds Russian?

**Alicia Leonard** · 08-25-2008, 02:31 PM

Originally Posted by scooterbug44

'Cause it sounds Russian?

Yes............I no like Russian sounding hurricanes

**sunspotbaby** · 08-25-2008, 02:36 PM

Originally Posted by aleonard

Yes............I no like Russian sounding hurricanes

Same here, I may be driving North next week.

**Miss Critter** · 08-25-2008, 03:29 PM

Originally Posted by aleonard

Why does this name make me think of Ivan

Originally Posted by scooterbug44

'Cause it sounds Russian?

Also sounds like a certain "K" name I won't mention. To paraphrase Harry Potter "She Who Must Not Be Named."

**klauricella** · 08-25-2008, 06:59 PM

I'd have to say this one makes me a little nervous

**cinlo** · 08-26-2008, 09:41 AM

We're driving down on Sept. 5th for a week in Panama City Beach. Who has a guess that we're in the clear from Gustav?? We have our fingers crossed..

**seagrovegirl** · 08-26-2008, 09:52 AM

If it continues straight ahead, we will meet Gustav, but chances of that are very slim because hurricanes rarely go in a straight line.. It's going to hit on the Gulf Coast somewhere.......who knows....it's at least 10 days away from us.

**beachmouse** · 08-26-2008, 10:04 AM

Models are kind of murky right now on the long term path of Gustav once it clears Cuba. There are about 3-4 different weather events in play that will impact the ultimate path of the storm.

Keep checking the National Hurricane Center web site and we'll hopefully have a better idea of how the ridge that would keep Gustav to the South is going to set up or not set up by about late Thursday.

**seagrovegirl** · 08-26-2008, 10:23 AM

**seagrovegirl** · 08-26-2008, 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by seagrovegirl

Heading for New Orleans................

**scooterbug44** · 08-26-2008, 10:53 AM

Since Katrina was supposed to make landfall in Seagrove, I am not convinced we're in the clear yet.

IMO it's going to curve and whomp us!

**sunspotbaby** · 08-26-2008, 11:00 AM

Originally Posted by scooterbug44

Since Katrina was supposed to make landfall in Seagrove, I am not convinced we're in the clear yet.

IMO it's going to curve and whomp us!

Mr. Sunspot always likes to make his predictions:

! Pack a bag !

**ronfrazer** · 08-26-2008, 11:47 AM

Because Gustav is weak and disorganized, and because there are many weather systems in the area that could push it around, my guess is that it'll wander quite a bit. I wouldn't change my plans. What the heck, a category 2 hurricane will give you some fun stories for the folks back home!

**NotDeadYet** · 08-26-2008, 12:11 PM

Weak and disorganized?

I don't think so.

"Gustav intensified from a tropical depression at 11 am yesterday to a Category 1 hurricane last night in just 16 hours, tying Hurricane Humberto's record--set just last year--for the fastest intensification from first advisory to a Category 1 hurricane.." Weather Underground/Tropical Jeff Masters
"

**SWGB** · 08-26-2008, 01:02 PM

Originally Posted by ronfrazer

Because Gustav is weak and disorganized, and because there are many weather systems in the area that could push it around, my guess is that it'll wander quite a bit. I wouldn't change my plans. What the heck, a category 2 hurricane will give you some fun stories for the folks back home!

A vacation renter won't experience anything over a Tropical Storm. Florida State law requires a renter (short term only) to vacate by law. In fact if they refuse technically the rental company is supposed to call the Sheriff's department to have them removed. For a renting vacationer to stay in anything over a Tropical Storm is just insanity anyway.

**bluemtnrunner** · 08-26-2008, 10:59 AM

At least we have the possiblity of real drama from hurricanes to rescue us from the contrived drama of our daily lives. What will we do with ourselves after hurricane season?

**Alicia Leonard** · 08-26-2008, 11:53 AM

Originally Posted by bluemtnrunner

At least we have the possiblity of real drama from hurricanes to rescue us from the contrived drama of our daily lives. What will we do with ourselves after hurricane season?

Pray our house insurance isn't canceled.

**Miss Kitty** · 08-26-2008, 12:17 PM

Originally Posted by aleonard

Pray our house insurance isn't cancelled.

Aleo...you always get to the meat of the story!

**SWGB** · 08-26-2008, 01:06 PM

I'm assuming the threads got merged, because my head hurts from trying to figure out what just happened. Kurt did a tornado hit the weather thread?

**BrownEyedGull** · 08-26-2008, 02:19 PM

We're coming down tomorrow night thru labor day. How's it looking until then?

.

**scooterbug44** · 08-26-2008, 02:22 PM

I think you'll be okay for a fun weekend based on the current tracks & timeline, but depending on what happens in the next couple days you might choose to return home a little earlier.

Just remember that a storm will kick up the waves so be careful about checking conditions at the beach.

**BeachSiO2** · 08-26-2008, 02:27 PM

I agree with SB above. From a weather perspective, it looks like you would be fine through Monday. From a beach perspective the waters could be rough on Sunday and Monday depending on where Gustav goes.

**momof2kids** · 08-26-2008, 02:43 PM

Just drove by the beach a few minutes ago in Miramar Beach area and there are double red flags posted. I expect that those will continue to fly for a while...

**drsvelte** · 08-26-2008, 02:51 PM

2:00pm models.

**SWGB** · 08-26-2008, 04:57 PM

We have made tentative reservations at Casa de Sister in Tallahassee just in case.

**rapunzel** · 08-26-2008, 05:04 PM

Okay. I'm officially having a Y'at attack right now.

We're supposed to be moving next week. It's gonna come here.

**scooterbug44** · 08-26-2008, 05:12 PM

Originally Posted by sowalgayboi

We have made tentative reservations at Casa de Sister in Tallahassee just in case.

Ditto - just emailed Hotel Uncles!

Poor Punzy - she wasn't happy about moving again BEFORE Gustav!

**ameliaj** · 08-26-2008, 05:03 PM

Saw the storm track on Sowal.
Lord, this don't look good at all!

**Minnie** · 08-26-2008, 05:11 PM

I did not like the looks of this one when it was forming.

**AuntJulz** · 08-26-2008, 06:33 PM

Great...trying to decide what to do about vacation... Supposed to arrive Sat and come home the next weekend. Any thoughts on if we should come Friday and just see how it goes or should we totally postpone?

**Jdarg** · 08-26-2008, 06:35 PM

Originally Posted by AuntJulz

Great...trying to decide what to do about vacation... Supposed to arrive Sat and come home the next weekend. Any thoughts on if we should come Friday and just see how it goes or should we totally postpone?

We won't know for sure for a few days- just monitor Weather Underground like we are! If you read that we are packing up and hoping our homes will be here when we return, you might want to rethink your vacation. If there is a mandatory evacuation, you are either not coming or going home anyway.

**AuntJulz** · 08-26-2008, 06:50 PM

Haha...yeah, we're keeping an eye on weather underground as well as noaa.gov

Just don't want double red flags/rain/etc for our vacation...but who does?

**Jdarg** · 08-26-2008, 06:56 PM

Originally Posted by AuntJulz

Haha...yeah, we're keeping an eye on weather underground as well as noaa.gov

Just don't want double red flags/rain/etc for our vacation...but who does?

I hear ya. We don't want a Cat 3 or worse hurricane - so believe me, we are watching. Double red flags/rain would suck for your vacation, but would be a relief to us at this point!

**jodiFL** · 08-26-2008, 06:51 PM

D*m*...I think I remember the NOGAPS one being the most accurate one (well at least the CLOSEST to accurate) and it is coming right at us.....

**Minnie** · 08-26-2008, 06:54 PM

well Gustav made oil go up by a dollar a barrel.

The discussion on Bloomberg was definitely upsetting. I hope they are very wrong.

**TreeFrog** · 08-26-2008, 07:57 PM

Originally Posted by Minnie

well Gustav made oil go up by a dollar a barrel.

The discussion on Bloomberg was definitely upsetting. I hope they are very wrong.

The current track runs straight at the Lousiana oil patch. Go fill your car before we go up again.

**TreeFrog** · 08-26-2008, 07:54 PM

Originally Posted by jodiFL

D*m*...I think I remember the NOGAPS one being the most accurate one (well at least the CLOSEST to accurate) and it is coming right at us.....

NOGAPS was the outlier for much of the TS Fay forecasting period. It consistently disagreed with the consensus, and the consensus pretty much turned out to be the track.

Jeff Masters' blog a couple of days ago had an analysis of which models performed best for Fay and the winner was GFDL. And he now says the similarities in Fay and Gustav are leading him to lend a little more weight to GFDL for Gustav, too.

**AuntJulz** · 08-26-2008, 07:12 PM

That's true. I spend at least 40 days per year down there and have had NO rain or bad weather in 3 years, so I consider myself lucky. In fact, we had a week of mosty green flags. Hey, a vacation is a vacation whether or not it's perfect...!

**BeachSiO2** · 08-26-2008, 07:15 PM

The website I follow has the storm continuing west toward Texas and not toward Sowal as of 4 EST. We'll see if they change in the morning.

**30ashopper** · 08-26-2008, 09:15 PM

This'll change landfall locations a thousand time between now and the weekend. I'd say if you're planning on coming down or maybe leaving just chill and keep an eye on things until then.

**NoHall** · 08-26-2008, 09:20 PM

I can't remember ever saying that I was glad I didn't make plans to be in SoWal, but now I'm thinking it's a good thing I have to work on Labor Day.

C'mon up here and ride it out with me. Bring a kayak--maybe the lake will be up enough by then that we can have some funn.

Last I heard, Fay was bringing us mudslides.

If Gustav brings as much craziness as Fay, I might move to the military school for a while--it's supposedly the highest spot in town.

**Smiling JOe** · 08-26-2008, 09:42 PM

Originally Posted by jodiFL

D*m*...I think I remember the NOGAPS one being the most accurate one (well at least the CLOSEST to accurate) and it is coming right at us.....

Originally Posted by TreeFrog

NOGAPS was the outlier for much of the TS Fay forecasting period. It consistently disagreed with the consensus, and the consensus pretty much turned out to be the track.

Jeff Masters' blog a couple of days ago had an analysis of which models performed best for Fay and the winner was GFDL. And he now says the similarities in Fay and Gustav are leading him to lend a little more weight to GFDL for Gustav, too.

Dr Master's blog also mentioned that NOGAPS, typically the most accurate, was the least accurate for the last storm (already forgot the name), and noted that since Gustav is much like the last storm in many ways (technical meteorological stuff), NOGAPS wouldn't likely be accurate for Gustav, either.

**jodiFL** · 08-27-2008, 07:29 AM

Originally Posted by Smiling JOe

Dr Master's blog also mentioned that NOGAPS, typically the most accurate, was the least accurate for the last storm (already forgot the name), and noted that since Gustav is much like the last storm in many ways (technical meteorological stuff), NOGAPS wouldn't likely be accurate for Gustav, either.

Well.....I dont really like that one either but at least it wouldnt put us on the east side of Gustav.