Has Fl. Real Estate Hit Bottom Yet?

**GoodWitch58** · 09-11-2009, 10:13 AM

Interesting article from Florida Trend:

History suggests Florida real estate prices haven't yet hit bottom - St. Petersburg Times

What do you "charts and numbers" folks think about this idea?

**kkddbb** · 09-11-2009, 10:39 AM

from what i see i say we have more to go before we hit bottom. in fact, i think we still have more time for the economy to spiral downward. all signs show 2010 to be a bad economic year. trying to stay positive though....

**SHELLY** · 09-11-2009, 10:41 AM

Is Florida�s depressed real estate market on the verge of a turnaround?

ST. PETERSBURG � The National Association of Realtors senior economist has encouraging outlooks for the Tampa Bay market.

�Certainly I feel very comfortable saying 2008 will be better than 2007 in terms of sales and prices,� said Dr. Lawrence Yun.

Yun calls Florida �ground zero� in the current national real estate correction.

�I don�t even use the word �price correction� because there is minimal price decline,� he adds.

The economist thinks there is a lot of pent-up demand in the local market from buyers waiting for more significant price drops. But rising rents are prompting some of them to start shopping. Sellers are also lowering their expectations. Florida also continues to capture 26% of foreigners buying homes in U.S. and will continue to attract northern retirees.

�Long term, baby boomers, huge population on the verge of retirement and we know where they want to go,� Yun said.

New home construction starts in Florida are down 70% from the peak in 2005.

�[It's] actually a positive for the local market stabilization, because you don�t want to add inventory to the current situation.�

But property taxes and insurance continue to be a drag on the local real estate market. 79% of home buyers say they have postponed or cancelled deals because of insurance costs and availability. 62% of home sellers say the same issues motivated their decision to sell.

Yun thinks the local real estate market is poised for recovery despite taxes and insurance problems, and says resolving those issues will strengthen the rebound.
--------------------------------------

What has changed in Florida/USA since this tasty piece of confection baked up by the NAR?

Future 11% unemployment in the state; inflation; water-tight credit; increasing taxes/insurance costs; more foreclosures...I see more bottoms as we go into the Fall <no pun intended>.

**Smiling JOe** · 09-11-2009, 03:12 PM

The product on the bottom is selling faster than hotcakes at Denny's. However, much of the inventory is overpriced, so many of the current listings still have to come down to meet buyers' willingness to purchase. So, while I see some bottoming in prices, most of the 5,000 actively listed properties, will need to come down in order to sell. So, we are at bottom and we are not at bottom.

**SHELLY** · 09-11-2009, 10:31 PM

Originally Posted by Smiling JOe

The product on the bottom is selling faster than hotcakes at Denny's. However, much of the inventory is overpriced, so many of the current listings still have to come down to meet buyers' willingness to purchase. So, while I see some bottoming in prices, most of the 5,000 actively listed properties, will need to come down in order to sell. So, we are at bottom and we are not at bottom.

Isn't it true that most of the properties selling now are either foreclosures, short sales, or folks who bought "pre-bubble" and watched their properties go up and have been watching them come down and are now <belatedly> cashing out while they can still salvage some equity?

How many of those $400-600K listings for bubble-era condoz/lots and multi-million $ homes are flying off the shelf?

**Smiling JOe** · 09-12-2009, 02:23 PM

Shelly, yes, and they seem to be setting the bottom (where buyers perceive value). Most sellers are not close to the bottom, and never will be until they are able to write a check at the closing table, or until the bank becomes the new owner.

**SHELLY** · 09-12-2009, 02:41 PM

Originally Posted by Smiling JOe

Shelly, yes, and they seem to be setting the bottom (where buyers perceive value). Most sellers are not close to the bottom, and never will be until they are able to write a check at the closing table, or until the bank becomes the new owner.

SJ,
...I don't think the appropriate term for folks who cling to bubble-prices while burning through their cash waiting for the market to rebound would be "sellers." Maybe "future bottom makers" is more germane.

.

**Smiling JOe** · 09-12-2009, 02:42 PM

I agree.

**Lynnie** · 09-12-2009, 04:51 PM

Originally Posted by kkddbb

from what i see i say we have more to go before we hit bottom. in fact, i think we still have more time for the economy to spiral downward. all signs show 2010 to be a bad economic year. trying to stay positive though....

Staying positive here, too. What info. are you reading that 2010 will be so bad? I view this as more of a market situation as each market is indeed different. Are you talking more of currency and stock markets, human capital reductions?

Buckhead is doing well, but we are also taking it on the chin for the 18 + county MSA. Everyone was talking about property tax bills last night. I have yet to open mine.

Unfortunately, I don't think Walton County will be doing well for a while, yet.

NYC/SF: The Tavern on The Green has filed BK.

**melscuba** · 09-12-2009, 06:36 PM

Originally Posted by Lynnie

Staying positive here, too. What info. are you reading that 2010 will be so bad? I view this as more of a market situation as each market is indeed different. Are you talking more of currency and stock markets, human capital reductions?

Buckhead is doing well, but we are also taking it on the chin for the 18 + county MSA. Everyone was talking about property tax bills last night. I have yet to open mine.

Unfortunately, I don't think Walton County will be doing well for a while, yet.

NYC/SF: The Tavern on The Green has filed BK.

Are you talking about Fulton County taxes??? or does Buckhead have another tax? For example, here in Roswell we pay Fulton County tax as well as Roswell City tax. I haven't gotten my tax bill yet. Should I be prepared? Just in comparison, everyone talks about Florida's property taxes being terrible. I have spoken to realtors, brokers, etc. who say to figure about 1% of the purchase price for a Florida home. Well, here in Fulton County, I pay more than that, along with Roswell City Tax AND state income tax. Am I missing something? I know I'm going off topic of the thread... sorry. The comment just caught my attention.

**30ashopper** · 09-12-2009, 09:25 PM

Originally Posted by SHELLY

Isn't it true that most of the properties selling now are either foreclosures, short sales, or folks who bought "pre-bubble" and watched their properties go up and have been watching them come down and are now <belatedly> cashing out while they can still salvage some equity?

How many of those $400-600K listings for bubble-era condoz/lots and multi-million $ homes are flying off the shelf?

All I see in poking around wc's web site are foreclosures selling for values at rock bottom prices (noticed one lot in the Preserve the other day that sold at 23% of what it sold at in 2005!), people selling at a loss (those that can afford it), and people selling who owned long before the bubble.

As Joe points out listings and sales are way out of wack. Just seems like things are still in flux, and probably will be for another good three years or so.

**Smiling JOe** · 09-13-2009, 10:54 AM

melscuba, you are right about millage rate in South Walton being under 1%. I moved here from a place where tax rates were 2.8%. I think most people likely think of taxes in regards to amount paid, and not millage rates.

Back to the other topic at hand, on average, new listings are still coming on the market well beyond the prices of those which are going pending and contingent, and well beyond those closing prices. Still a lot of wishful thinking people.

**30ashopper** · 09-13-2009, 12:57 PM

“I’m praying for another boom, otherwise, we’ll have to walk.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/09/business/09loans.html

**Lynnie** · 09-13-2009, 02:10 PM

Originally Posted by melscuba

Are you talking about Fulton County taxes??? or does Buckhead have another tax? For example, here in Roswell we pay Fulton County tax as well as Roswell City tax. I haven't gotten my tax bill yet. Should I be prepared? Just in comparison, everyone talks about Florida's property taxes being terrible. I have spoken to realtors, brokers, etc. who say to figure about 1% of the purchase price for a Florida home. Well, here in Fulton County, I pay more than that, along with Roswell City Tax AND state income tax. Am I missing something? I know I'm going off topic of the thread... sorry. The comment just caught my attention.

Yep, Fulton Co. If Funwoody and Sandy Strings had not seceeded, we'd probably ALL be ok - Fulton Co., inclusive. You are paying more in Fulton Co. for services that we are paying for under the City of Atlanta taxes.

But, we lost a huge tax base and with the water/sewer/storm runoff infrastructure situation for Atlanta, which BTW supplies the 18 + County MSA, we are in a mess. City of Atlanta has to pay for the new infrastructure, not the other cities.....and, Fed won't help us because of crooked politicians in the past......go figure.

Buckhead doesn't have a separate tax, just a higher tax. Do you have a Sanitation Tax? That came from whatshisname Mayor - gonna reduce taxes. Yep, he did and sent a separate bill to us the following year for storm runoff.

And, I have no problem paying higher taxes for a strong school system, which we do have.......but, home ownership is losing its lustre, no?

Shoot, now that I think about it, I think that Sanitation Tax is due this week; I'd better go dig that out. <sigh>

**fisher** · 09-13-2009, 03:10 PM

Originally Posted by Smiling JOe

The product on the bottom is selling faster than hotcakes at Denny's. However, much of the inventory is overpriced, so many of the current listings still have to come down to meet buyers' willingness to purchase. So, while I see some bottoming in prices, most of the 5,000 actively listed properties, will need to come down in order to sell. So, we are at bottom and we are not at bottom.

The folks at the very top end of the market are the ones that seem to be holding on for dear life hoping that someone will be crazy enough to pay anywhere near asking price for their homes.

For example, I count a total of about 8 homes sold for over $1.8 million in Rosemary, Alys, watersound, Seaside, Watercolor and the Retreat combined over the last 9 months (per Walton County website). Yet, there are over 110 homes listed for $1.8 million or more in these communities. These folks are dreaming. One is Watersound is listed at $9.9 million.

Given comp sales of homes in these communities, a lot of these sellers will need to take up to 70% off the list price in order for the buyers to get an appraisal to support a loan (or to support the purchase price prior to paying cash if the cash buyer is smart). Every once in a while a seller has gotten lucky and cashed out at a really good price. But, most buyers aren't going to pay prices above what an appraisal will support.

**melscuba** · 09-14-2009, 08:06 AM

Originally Posted by Smiling JOe

melscuba, you are right about millage rate in South Walton being under 1%. I moved here from a place where tax rates were 2.8%. I think most people likely think of taxes in regards to amount paid, and not millage rates.

Back to the other topic at hand, on average, new listings are still coming on the market well beyond the prices of those which are going pending and contingent, and well beyond those closing prices. Still a lot of wishful thinking people.

Well, as it sits right now, it looks like we would be paying less in overall taxes if we moved full time to SoWal. Another great reason to head on down.