Has Fl. Real Estate Hit Bottom Yet?
Interesting article from Florida Trend:
History suggests Florida real estate prices haven't yet hit bottom - St. Petersburg Times
What do you "charts and numbers" folks think about this idea?A people that values its privileges above its principles soon loses both.
Dwight D. Eisenhower
09-11-2009, 10:39 AM #2
from what i see i say we have more to go before we hit bottom. in fact, i think we still have more time for the economy to spiral downward. all signs show 2010 to be a bad economic year. trying to stay positive though....
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09-11-2009, 10:41 AM #3
Is Florida’s depressed real estate market on the verge of a turnaround?
ST. PETERSBURG – The National Association of Realtors senior economist has encouraging outlooks for the Tampa Bay market.
“Certainly I feel very comfortable saying 2008 will be better than 2007 in terms of sales and prices,” said Dr. Lawrence Yun.
Yun calls Florida “ground zero” in the current national real estate correction.
“I don’t even use the word ‘price correction’ because there is minimal price decline,” he adds.
The economist thinks there is a lot of pent-up demand in the local market from buyers waiting for more significant price drops. But rising rents are prompting some of them to start shopping. Sellers are also lowering their expectations. Florida also continues to capture 26% of foreigners buying homes in U.S. and will continue to attract northern retirees.
“Long term, baby boomers, huge population on the verge of retirement and we know where they want to go,” Yun said.
New home construction starts in Florida are down 70% from the peak in 2005.
“[It's] actually a positive for the local market stabilization, because you don’t want to add inventory to the current situation.”
But property taxes and insurance continue to be a drag on the local real estate market. 79% of home buyers say they have postponed or cancelled deals because of insurance costs and availability. 62% of home sellers say the same issues motivated their decision to sell.
Yun thinks the local real estate market is poised for recovery despite taxes and insurance problems, and says resolving those issues will strengthen the rebound.
What has changed in Florida/USA since this tasty piece of confection baked up by the NAR?
Future 11% unemployment in the state; inflation; water-tight credit; increasing taxes/insurance costs; more foreclosures...I see more bottoms as we go into the Fall <no pun intended>.
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The product on the bottom is selling faster than hotcakes at Denny's. However, much of the inventory is overpriced, so many of the current listings still have to come down to meet buyers' willingness to purchase. So, while I see some bottoming in prices, most of the 5,000 actively listed properties, will need to come down in order to sell. So, we are at bottom and we are not at bottom.
09-11-2009, 10:31 PM #5
How many of those $400-600K listings for bubble-era condoz/lots and multi-million $ homes are flying off the shelf?
Last edited by SHELLY; 09-11-2009 at 10:34 PM.
09-12-2009, 02:41 PM #7
Last edited by SHELLY; 09-12-2009 at 02:43 PM.
Staying positive here, too. What info. are you reading that 2010 will be so bad? I view this as more of a market situation as each market is indeed different. Are you talking more of currency and stock markets, human capital reductions?
Buckhead is doing well, but we are also taking it on the chin for the 18 + county MSA. Everyone was talking about property tax bills last night. I have yet to open mine.
Unfortunately, I don't think Walton County will be doing well for a while, yet.
NYC/SF: The Tavern on The Green has filed BK.Helping others is a gift.
09-12-2009, 06:36 PM #10
As Joe points out listings and sales are way out of wack. Just seems like things are still in flux, and probably will be for another good three years or so.
melscuba, you are right about millage rate in South Walton being under 1%. I moved here from a place where tax rates were 2.8%. I think most people likely think of taxes in regards to amount paid, and not millage rates.
Back to the other topic at hand, on average, new listings are still coming on the market well beyond the prices of those which are going pending and contingent, and well beyond those closing prices. Still a lot of wishful thinking people.
But, we lost a huge tax base and with the water/sewer/storm runoff infrastructure situation for Atlanta, which BTW supplies the 18 + County MSA, we are in a mess. City of Atlanta has to pay for the new infrastructure, not the other cities.....and, Fed won't help us because of crooked politicians in the past......go figure.
Buckhead doesn't have a separate tax, just a higher tax. Do you have a Sanitation Tax? That came from whatshisname Mayor - gonna reduce taxes. Yep, he did and sent a separate bill to us the following year for storm runoff.
And, I have no problem paying higher taxes for a strong school system, which we do have.......but, home ownership is losing its lustre, no?
Shoot, now that I think about it, I think that Sanitation Tax is due this week; I'd better go dig that out. <sigh>Helping others is a gift.
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09-13-2009, 03:10 PM #15
For example, I count a total of about 8 homes sold for over $1.8 million in Rosemary, Alys, watersound, Seaside, Watercolor and the Retreat combined over the last 9 months (per Walton County website). Yet, there are over 110 homes listed for $1.8 million or more in these communities. These folks are dreaming. One is Watersound is listed at $9.9 million.
Given comp sales of homes in these communities, a lot of these sellers will need to take up to 70% off the list price in order for the buyers to get an appraisal to support a loan (or to support the purchase price prior to paying cash if the cash buyer is smart). Every once in a while a seller has gotten lucky and cashed out at a really good price. But, most buyers aren't going to pay prices above what an appraisal will support.
09-14-2009, 08:06 AM #16
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