Thread: Time to buy JOE
11-05-2010, 08:04 AM #1
Time to buy JOE
back in 2006 I suggested to folks to short JOE, if they couldn't sell there home in South Walton, as a proxy for doing the same. I think the pendulum has swung ridiculously far to the negative side, and that the Short Joe trade is cooked, done. I think it's time to buy JOE, and lock the shares away for 50 years.
good luck to all.
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bursts and snippets
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11-05-2010, 09:50 AM #3
"immediate returns" or 50 year term, are two very different things.
joe is at 20.00 today, and I think it is a good buy also!
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11-05-2010, 11:10 AM #6
Far better stocks to buy IMO. Nothing about Joe's recent actions make me think it's a good buy.
11-05-2010, 06:21 PM #8
JOE was sued TODAY for securites fraud...story below:
Brower Piven Encourages Investors Who Have Losses in Excess of $100,000 From Investment in The St. Joe Company to Inquire About the Lead Plaintiff Position in Securities Fraud Class Action Lawsuit Before the January 3, 2011 Lead Plaintiff Deadline
STEVENSON, MD -- (Marketwire) -- 11/05/10 -- Brower Piven, A Professional Corporation announces that a class action lawsuit has been commenced in the United States District Court for the Northern District of Florida on behalf of purchasers of the securities of The St. Joe Company ("St. Joe" or the "Company") (NYSE: JOE) during the period between February 19, 2008 and October 12, 2010, inclusive (the "Class Period"), including purchasers of the Company's securities pursuant and/or traceable to the Company's public offering of common stock on or about February 27, 2008.
No class has yet been certified in the above action. Members of the Class will be represented by the lead plaintiff and counsel chosen by the lead plaintiff. If you wish to choose counsel to represent you and the Class, you must apply to be appointed lead plaintiff no later than January 3, 2011 and be selected by the Court. The lead plaintiff will direct the litigation and participate in important decisions including whether to accept a settlement and how much of a settlement to accept for the Class in the action. The lead plaintiff will be selected from among applicants claiming the largest loss from investment in the Company during the Class Period. You are not required to have sold your shares to seek damages or to serve as a Lead Plaintiff.
The complaint accuses the defendants of violations of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 by virtue of the Company's failure to disclose during the Class Period that as the Florida real estate market was in decline, St. Joe was failing to take adequate and required impairments and accounting writedowns on many of its Florida based property developments and that, as a result, St. Joe's financial statements materially overvalued the Company's Florida based property developments and the Company's financial statements were not prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. According to the complaint, St. Joe's investors were shocked as Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn detailed, on October 13, 2010, at the Value Investing Congress how St. Joe needed to take "substantial impairments" and accounting writedowns on many of its properties, and that further building by the Company "will drive the stock price to zero." The complaint alleges that as a result of the information disclosed by Mr. Einhorn, the value of St. Joe stock declined significantly.
If you have suffered a net loss for all transactions in The St. Joe Company securities during the Class Period, you may obtain additional information about this lawsuit and your ability to become a lead plaintiff by contacting Brower Piven at Brower Piven, A Professional Corporation Home, by email at email@example.com, by calling 410/415-6616, or at Brower Piven, A Professional Corporation, 1925 Old Valley Road, Stevenson, Maryland 21153. Attorneys at Brower Piven have combined experience litigating securities and class action cases of over 50 years. If you choose to retain counsel, you may retain Brower Piven without financial obligation or cost to you, or you may retain other counsel of your choice. You need take no action at this time to be a member of the class.
Charles J. Piven
Brower Piven, A Professional Corporation
© 2008 SYS-CON Media Inc.
11-05-2010, 08:38 PM #9
11-05-2010, 09:07 PM #10
For example...you can pick up a share of Intel (a company that IS making money) for roughly the same price as JOE and get a 2.97% dividend to boot!
(DISCLAIMER: Under no circumstances does the information above represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.)
Last edited by SHELLY; 11-05-2010 at 09:20 PM.
11-06-2010, 12:01 AM #11
I'll bet a new pair of branded CROX, and a domestic (only) beer at Bud & Alleys in June 2011, that JOE will work out better from November 4th, until May 15, 2011than either the entire index as measured by SPY, or.. or either any ONE of the following:
but Shelly won't put his money where his ass
Last edited by robertsondavies; 11-06-2010 at 12:03 AM.
11-06-2010, 01:50 AM #12
I remember when SHELLY pooed all over CROX, which at the time was at 60, crashed when everything else did, but ironically has steadily climbed ever since. Yes, the folks that bought at 60 are still in the red, but the folks that bought at 5 are either rich from when they sold at over 50 or are happy that there investment is still ahead.
The point is that you can look at anything in it's current context and find something negative, but depending on where you are looking there is probably a positive before or after.
Last edited by SWGB; 11-06-2010 at 01:51 AM.
11-06-2010, 01:23 PM #13
It's a sucker's bet to predict that momentum stocks in the $100+ per share range may not fare as well percentage-wise as a stock that's currently the darling of short-sellers all over Wall Street.
Maybe you can find a player who currently owns 5 PCB condoz he bought for $525K a copy.
I'll ignore the "ass" comment--I've got a snappy comeback, but I'll take the highroad on that one.
(Can I assume making a bet for a cheap beer and a pair of rubber shoes your second best investment idea?)
Last edited by SHELLY; 11-06-2010 at 01:34 PM.
11-06-2010, 01:26 PM #14
Last edited by SHELLY; 11-06-2010 at 01:29 PM.
11-06-2010, 04:20 PM #15
11-06-2010, 05:07 PM #16
Doesn't anyone on here have some "new" investment ideas other than gold, real estate, JOE and MLMs? (Scratch that, I really don't want to know.)
11-06-2010, 05:10 PM #17
11-06-2010, 05:26 PM #18
11-08-2010, 07:21 AM #19
Asking you to put your ass on the line on a wager, and calling you an ass, are quite different to me. So by taking the high road, does that mean you wont' take the wager. If you don't like the yardstick options provided, then let's just measure it against the entire S&P 500.
11-08-2010, 01:31 PM #21
Last edited by SHELLY; 11-08-2010 at 01:38 PM.
11-08-2010, 04:12 PM #22
I like your charity idea for a wager that will do good. I do not like betting against INTC. Cash Flow multiple represents real value on INTC, especially when the 10 year treasury note is trading at 38 X 2020 earnings (aka yield).
The bet really is about JOE, so i'd prefer to find some neutral barometer, against which to measure my original volley, that JOE is valuable. Like the S&P or the Dow Jones if you prefer. true there isn't much Pricing Action in those indexes, that's the point I think. If you'd prefer a real estate sub-index or ETF, like IYR for instance, I'd go for that too instead of S&P.
11-08-2010, 06:29 PM #23
Last edited by SHELLY; 11-08-2010 at 06:31 PM.
11-08-2010, 07:47 PM #24
Shelly upgrades JOE ??
Now don't get me wrong, it appears Shelly is still not afraid to utter that JOE is screwed, but at the same time, is unwilling to now say/bet that JOE will fare worse than the average stock in the S&P 500 or the DOW.
In wall street talk, Shelly just raised JOE to an "Outperformer" Too bad analyst ratings changes are typically wrong... I think this one is a timely upgrade - reminds me of Meredith Whitney's downgrade/dividend cut call on Citigroup.
UPGRADE baby !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
11-08-2010, 10:17 PM #25
11-09-2010, 06:53 AM #26
11-26-2010, 05:56 PM #28
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Nov 26):
($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
WARNING: Kids, don't try this at home!!!
Last edited by SHELLY; 11-26-2010 at 05:59 PM.
11-27-2010, 08:43 AM #29
11-30-2010, 09:02 AM #30
[QUOTE=homeboy;710375]Most of JOE's holdings are worthless swampland (think of Rivercamps that is a total bust), not prime beachfront like Watersound or Watercolor. Not worth $5 bucks a share.[/QUOTE
homeboy, sounds like you've done a deep dive analysis on this on a per share/per acre basis. could you please share any details of that analysis... your thoughts on JOE's balance sheet, and on some comparable price per acre sales of acreages bth near the beach, near swamp or pine forest??
11-30-2010, 09:05 AM #31
Please keep the portfolio updates coming over the coming months, as the bet unfolds.
You're off to a great start, taking the S&P against JOE. ON a sidenote, I'm not sure who is betting against INTC, but that's fun to watch it go up too, as it should.
11-30-2010, 03:15 PM #32
11-30-2010, 09:13 PM #33
reminded me why Florida is valuable though.... on the way to the beach, everyone in Roatan we saw walking, carried a Mashedi (sic)... since South Walton is now priced like 3rd world Caribbean, there may be some value here afterall.
11-30-2010, 10:50 PM #34
Then there's this:
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DzcOCyHDqc"]YouTube - Indiana Jones : Sword vs. Gun[/ame]
Last edited by SHELLY; 11-30-2010 at 10:56 PM.
12-01-2010, 04:17 PM #35
balance sheet looks reasonably healthy, BUT a good chunk of the cash was generated from tax refunds over the past couple of years. Outside these refunds, they are BLEEDING cash. At current burn rate, they will be out of cash in a couple of years with little capacity to borrow due to negative ebitda.
Pull out your excel spreadsheets and do a DCF analysis like I did. Assume they sell all 577,000 acres at 20k acres per year for the next 29 years (only sold about 1k this year). Assume a 10k per acre sales price (way too high, given that the bulk sales have been going in the range of 2-4k recently), 50% ebitda margin (again way too high historically), 39% tax rate, and a 10% discount rate. With these aggressive assumptions, the business isn't even worth $10 per share.
Was that enough detail, or do you need more?
12-02-2010, 04:52 PM #36
At least CROX, INTEL, etc make products and do not have a finite supply of inventory from which to produce revenues and profits.
50 years-you lost that bet the minute you made it.
Last edited by homeboy; 12-02-2010 at 04:54 PM.
12-02-2010, 08:16 PM #38
12-02-2010, 08:45 PM #39
12-03-2010, 05:13 PM #40
Last edited by SHELLY; 12-03-2010 at 05:16 PM.
12-03-2010, 06:33 PM #41
12-03-2010, 06:35 PM #42
12-03-2010, 09:39 PM #44
It's really not "up"...it's just less negative--not unusual for a stock that's getting jerked around by 2 huge hedge funds.
(And INTC did pay out their quarterly dividend on Wednesday too...)
Last edited by SHELLY; 12-03-2010 at 09:46 PM.
12-04-2010, 12:33 PM #46
If it makes you feel any better, I will actually write the statement "JOE beat INTC this week!!" when it happens--trust me on this. It very well might happen before the game is over.
12-04-2010, 04:58 PM #47
12-04-2010, 05:42 PM #48
Last edited by SHELLY; 12-04-2010 at 05:47 PM.
12-07-2010, 12:03 AM #49
I think it was Warren Buffett who suggested
If you use a product or service, and like it, and you can own a piece of it via direct ownership or on the market, buy it.
he also has the buy and hold philosophy.
a personal fav right now is logmein -- fighting it out with Citrix (gotomypc)
Logme in is suprior, faster and more mobile oriented.
LogMeIn Taunts Cisco and Citrix With Free Web Meeting App - NYTimes.com
How about that netflix since Jan last year, $50 to almost $200
wow.Jack: You wanna beer? Ron: It's 7 o'clock in the morning? Jack: Scotch? (Mr Mom movie)
12-07-2010, 05:04 AM #50
I totally agree which is why I'm still buying Sirius.