Time to buy JOE

[Smiling JOe]

What about dollar cost averaging? That might be fun to watch with INTC and JOE, buying $100 of each per week for the next year.

[SHELLY]

What about dollar cost averaging? That might be fun to watch with INTC and JOE, buying $100 of each per week for the next year.

Go for it...and reinvest the quarterly INTC dividends.
.

[SHELLY]

Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 3):

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

INTC/$2,068.66/+3.43%

SPY/$2,010.31/+0.52%

JOE/$1,847.29/-7.64%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)

Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 10):

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

INTC/$2,089.64/+4.48%

SPY/$2,036.32/+1.82%

JOE/$1,814.57/-9.27%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)

I'll be out of town starting Tuesday, (got a star I'm following--no, it's not Miley Cyrus) will post results for next Friday's close when I get back.

[Hans]

Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 10):

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

INTC/$2,089.64/+4.48%

SPY/$2,036.32/+1.82%

JOE/$1,814.57/-9.27%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)

I'll be out of town starting Tuesday, (got a star I'm following--no, it's not Miley Cyrus) will post results for next Friday's close when I get back.

[Hans]

...when following that star, make sure you don't end up in a manger, with a donkey and such.

[SHELLY]

...when following that star, make sure you don't end up in a manger, with a donkey and such.

...nah--just taking a little GLD--not to sure about the market for frankincense and myrrh futures though.

[robertsondavies]

Unofficial Closes Nov. 4th.
INTC: $20.97 (Current share price: $21.69)
SPY: $122.26 (Current share price: $122.89)
JOE: $20.17 (Current share price: $18.63)

Unofficial Prices This morning after market open:
JOE: 20.43 up about 1.2% since Nov. 4th close
INTC: 21.26 up about 1.2% since Nov. 4th close
SPY: 123.96 up about 1.35% since Nov. 4th close.

These are unofficial intraday prices, and have not been approved by this thread's moderator as official.

Anyway, this thread is going to be interesting to watch over time, no matter how it works out. I look forward to the next official update;
thanks Shelly for putting those out.

[robertsondavies]

Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 10):

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

INTC/$2,089.64/+4.48%

SPY/$2,036.32/+1.82%

JOE/$1,814.57/-9.27%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)

I'll be out of town starting Tuesday, (got a star I'm following--no, it's not Miley Cyrus) will post results for next Friday's close when I get back.

Shelly, hope you've had a good trip, and a safe return. What star were you following?

[beachmouse]

Greenlight's Einhorn Says St. Joe Acquisition Would Be `Very Tough' to Do - Bloomberg

[robertsondavies]

Einhorn = Vanity ---, not even his own work, for the most part on the JOE short idea here. one of his junior guys, who has been trained by the last decade that the glass is always half empty.

He has no idea what 30A is about... Berkowitz has done the work, and he can understand that somewhere outside of South Florida is desirable (perhaps because he is a full time south Florida resident??) ... he understands that it is the playground, retirement destination of choice of the confederacy plus texas, plus the lower midwest. Einhorn dismisses South Walton as a typical Yankee would b/c there are no Nathan hot dogs stands, no gang violence, no obnoxious people from Long Island hanging out comparing engagement ring sizes, and most of all very few obnoxious yankees. The yanks that appreciate South Walton, are wisely keeping it a secret so far, outside of Berko.

Vanity...

Einhorn smart, and vain. Look out, I think Ackman, Paulson and Buffet are about to join Berkowitz is figuring out that Einhorn's work on JOE was very very shoddy, and surprisingly negative for a company with such a balance sheet. Einhorn has forgotten the number one rule of shorting, you should have a catalyst, b/c time works against you, and this is especially the case with JOE.

[robertsondavies]

I was just settling down to a nice pumpkin spice latte, and was wondering if my updated brokerage statement, about my hypothetical $2000 investments would be forthcoming.

Thanks

B. Berkowitz

[homeboy]

[quote=robertsondavies;711963]

Dude, you don't use DCF's on unpredictable, cyclical businesses. second, a 10% discount rate is laughable. Third, Einhorn had a price target of $20 when the stock was much higher, and recently updated that to low teens, so he could cover his short more profitability. Fourth, Einhorn's next 13-F report will show he coverd a bunch, if not all of his bet over the last 4 weeks. Will your 13-F show something different? Did you get short recently?

Yo, dude, please enlighten us on how you would value the company. And, dude, you are probably right, a 10% discount rate is laughably LOW for the risk associated with this company. The company has little true long term value due to the fact that most of its holdings are inland swampy land.

Did not short, don't like betting for a company to fail.

Looking forward to hearing your analysis of how to value the company.

[homeboy]

So you think CROX or INTEL have more longevity and lasting ability to innovate, than a company that is a Land Trust? Thanks for your opinions though, appreciate that you think its a slam dunk that Intel will not be usurped or surpassed, yet Real Estate in Florida to hold for the next 50 years is a guaranteed loser now??? Dude where were you in 2005?

Crox, no. Intel, yes. But, at least both actually make things. Joe has land, lots of worthless land and some with value. Net, net--company won't be making any money in the short or long term. They were a one hit, real estate bubble wonder.

[robertsondavies]

Crox, no. Intel, yes. But, at least both actually make things. Joe has land, lots of worthless land and some with value. Net, net--company won't be making any money in the short or long term. They were a one hit, real estate bubble wonder.

So you're shorting hard assets? Shorting them now? After the 80% off sale? Good luck with that sir?

[homeboy]

Dude. When did I say I was shorting anything??

Again, what method would you use to value JOE? Also, what is it you believe JOE will be doing in 50 years?

[robertsondavies]

Dude. When did I say I was shorting anything??

Again, what method would you use to value JOE? Also, what is it you believe JOE will be doing in 50 years?

well, if you're neutral about JOE, then you won't mind me not sharing my valuation methods with you, because they are quite lengthy, and at the end of the day, there is no scientific call that says, yeah or nay on either overvaluation or undervaluation. To answer your question in 50 years, I expect INTC to have squandered their ephemeral run in price moated branded CPU semiconductors, and will be like Motorola only smaller. In 50 yrs, I expect JOE to have sold off and developed 70-80% of its acreage, and reinvested the proceeds in 4 things, share buybacks, dividends, nursing home operations & casino/resort operations on the pandhandle. I expect the company will split into two companies within the next 25 years, an operating company with nursing homes, developed leased commercial real estate, casinos and resorts, and a separate smaller compny holding the remaining land, in trust.

P.S., pre 2006 I was urging people to short JOE, if they felt like they didn't want to sell their vacation home/land on the pandhandle - so I haven't always had such a rosey view on the big JOE

[robertsondavies]

Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 10):

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

INTC/$2,089.64/+4.48%

SPY/$2,036.32/+1.82%

JOE/$1,814.57/-9.27%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)

I'll be out of town starting Tuesday, (got a star I'm following--no, it's not Miley Cyrus) will post results for next Friday's close when I get back.

Since SHELLY is delayed getting back, here is an unoffical tally based on the open of markets today. Interesting turnaround. God speed Shelly. RESULTS UNOFFICIAL

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

INTC/$2,028.61/ +1.42%
SPY/$2,044.65/ +2.23
JOE/$2,117/ +5.88%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)

[homeboy]

well, if you're neutral about JOE, then you won't mind me not sharing my valuation methods with you, because they are quite lengthy, and at the end of the day, there is no scientific call that says, yeah or nay on either overvaluation or undervaluation. To answer your question in 50 years, I expect INTC to have squandered their ephemeral run in price moated branded CPU semiconductors, and will be like Motorola only smaller. In 50 yrs, I expect JOE to have sold off and developed 70-80% of its acreage, and reinvested the proceeds in 4 things, share buybacks, dividends, nursing home operations & casino/resort operations on the pandhandle. I expect the company will split into two companies within the next 25 years, an operating company with nursing homes, developed leased commercial real estate, casinos and resorts, and a separate smaller compny holding the remaining land, in trust.

P.S., pre 2006 I was urging people to short JOE, if they felt like they didn't want to sell their vacation home/land on the pandhandle - so I haven't always had such a rosey view on the big JOE

So, pre 2006, when JOE had lots more acreage, real estate values were sky high, revenues approaching $1 BILLION and net income exceeding $100 MILLION, you said short. At the time, the company was valued at roughly 5-6 times revenue and 25-30 times EBITDA.


Now, with less acreage, much lower real estate values, revenues of less than $100 million and annual losses of $50 to $70 million, you are saying buy and hold for 50 years?? At a current valuation of roughly $2 billion, the company is trading at 20 TIMES REVENUE.

Or, to put it another way. What did you think the enterprise value of JOE was when the company had almonst $1 BILLION in revenue and you said short? And, now, with less than $100 million in revenue and continuing losses, what is your current thought on the enterprise value of JOE and you say buy? (Really looking forward to this answer).

Why the change of heart? Why did you feel JOE was so overvalued pre 2006 when real estate was raging and JOE had lots more raw land?? Now, with fewer assets, lower real estate asset values and a HUGE valuation premium, you say buy and hold??

The company now has about 10% of the revenue it had in 2005 and JOE is BLEEDING cash (excluding tax refunds) versus generating tons of FCF in 2005, yet the stock price is still trading at about 33% of the average price in the 2005-2006 period.

HMM???

[homeboy]

well, if you're neutral about JOE, then you won't mind me not sharing my valuation methods with you, because they are quite lengthy, and at the end of the day, there is no scientific call that says, yeah or nay on either overvaluation or undervaluation. To answer your question in 50 years, I expect INTC to have squandered their ephemeral run in price moated branded CPU semiconductors, and will be like Motorola only smaller. In 50 yrs, I expect JOE to have sold off and developed 70-80% of its acreage, and reinvested the proceeds in 4 things, share buybacks, dividends, nursing home operations & casino/resort operations on the pandhandle. I expect the company will split into two companies within the next 25 years, an operating company with nursing homes, developed leased commercial real estate, casinos and resorts, and a separate smaller compny holding the remaining land, in trust.

P.S., pre 2006 I was urging people to short JOE, if they felt like they didn't want to sell their vacation home/land on the pandhandle - so I haven't always had such a rosey view on the big JOE

They won't be able to cover operating costs for many, many years. How in the world will they ever pay a dividend or have $ to reinvest in other assets. JOE didn't pay a dividend even during the real esate bubble days.

JOE won't be around in 5 years much less 50.


Still would like to get a brief glimpse into the valuation methodology you used to determine JOE is a great buy at current prices and why given the long time (ie:never) it will take to generate a profit that there is any room for growth (ie: to even keep pace with inflation) in the current stock price.

[robertsondavies]

JOE won't be around in 5 years much less 50.


.

... if you really KNOW that's what's going to happen, then why the HECK don't you get yourself a margin trading account, and short the bejesus out of JOE?

The only way I see JOE not being around in 5 years in its present form, is if it has been taken over, publicly or privately.

[homeboy]

... if you really KNOW that's what's going to happen, then why the HECK don't you get yourself a margin trading account, and short the bejesus out of JOE?

The only way I see JOE not being around in 5 years in its present form, is if it has been taken over, publicly or privately.

Still waiting to hear how you valued JOE pre 2006 and how you are valuing it now.

You were negative JOE with a $5-6 Billion valuation when they had $1 billion in revenue. Now you are pro JOE with a $2 billion valuation and only $100 million in revenue.

Just wanting to understand your valuation methodology because it doesn't seem to make sense.

[robertsondavies]

Still waiting to hear how you valued JOE pre 2006 and how you are valuing it now.

You were negative JOE with a $5-6 Billion valuation when they had $1 billion in revenue. Now you are pro JOE with a $2 billion valuation and only $100 million in revenue.

Just wanting to understand your valuation methodology because it doesn't seem to make sense.

Homeboy, most of my valuation work, decidedly non discounted cash flow oriented, was done, after wathing the following video, which I imaged as Alys Beach Circa 2060... I particulary like the accordian ditty, and I think it is a better method for picking stocks than yours, which seems to be: buy cyclical companies when they appear cheap, and short them when their revenue mutliples appear expense -

watch the video, smoke a bowl, think about what I just typed with regard to cyclical companies. cheers.

When you watch the video, imagine you're pausing at the Calizza pool (which is featured mid way in the video) and just imagine how you might be wrong in the future.

[homeboy]

Homeboy, most of my valuation work, decidedly non discounted cash flow oriented, was done, after wathing the following video, which I imaged as Alys Beach Circa 2060... I particulary like the accordian ditty, and I think it is a better method for picking stocks than yours, which seems to be: buy cyclical companies when they appear cheap, and short them when their revenue mutliples appear expense -

watch the video, smoke a bowl, think about what I just typed with regard to cyclical companies. cheers.

When you watch the video, imagine you're pausing at the Calizza pool (which is featured mid way in the video) and just imagine how you might be wrong in the future.

In other words---you don't have a reasonable answer to the questions.

Back to the post that started this thread--recommending a stock buy without any basis for the recommendation.

Nuff said.

[robertsondavies]

In other words---you don't have a reasonable answer to the questions.

Back to the post that started this thread--recommending a stock buy without any basis for the recommendation.

Nuff said.

[SHELLY]

Happy New Years My Friends and Foes!

My first order of business for Smiling Joe:

JOE BEAT INTEL
JOE BEAT INTEL
JOE BEAT INTEL

Thanks to RD for posting the updates in my absence...here is the latest results of the fantasy portfolio:
__________________________________________________ ___
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 30):

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

JOE/$2,166.58/+8.33%

SPY/$2057.09/+2.85%

INTC/$2005.72/+0.29%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
__________________________________________________ ____

With that out of the way...what a couple of weeks it's been for me!!

First, I've personally survived "Planes, Trains and Automobiles--The Sequel!" both coming and going through Europe--Oy Vey! We were better off than most, thanks to the hospitality of friends and acquaintances abroad who put us up when we got stuck.

Once we thought we were in the clear--it was "Planes, Trains and Automobiles--The Three-quel!!" here in the states...more snow & ice in the Northeast!

Then, come to find out I missed the "Mother of All Squeeze Plays" and JOE selling their soul to the devil by bringing Berkowitz and Fernandez on to the board of directors!

But, what I find most disturbing, is that our area has now become Fairholmes' Biyatch, and anyone who knows anything about this type of (in Fairholmes case) "non-Hedge Fund," they're all for wringing out every single, bloody dollar they can get to gain profit for themselves and their shareholders...good news for JOE stockholders(?) but discomforting as to the future direction of this area.

On well--for Auld Lang Syne, ya'll....on with the game and 2011!

Shel.

[kurt]

Can you explain to us moneytards how this is bad for our area? What type of results on the ground (or to the ground) do you mean?

[robertsondavies]

Happy New Years My Friends and Foes!

My first order of business for Smiling Joe:

JOE BEAT INTEL
JOE BEAT INTEL
JOE BEAT INTEL

Thanks to RD for posting the updates in my absence...here is the latest results of the fantasy portfolio:
__________________________________________________ ___
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 30):

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

JOE/$2,166.58/+8.33%

SPY/$2057.09/+2.85%

INTC/$2005.72/+0.29%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
__________________________________________________ ____

With that out of the way...what a couple of weeks it's been for me!!

First, I've personally survived "Planes, Trains and Automobiles--The Sequel!" both coming and going through Europe--Oy Vey! We were better off than most, thanks to the hospitality of friends and acquaintances abroad who put us up when we got stuck.

Once we thought we were in the clear--it was "Planes, Trains and Automobiles--The Three-quel!!" here in the states...more snow & ice in the Northeast!

Then, come to find out I missed the "Mother of All Squeeze Plays" and JOE selling their soul to the devil by bringing Berkowitz and Fernandez on to the board of directors!

But, what I find most disturbing, is that our area has now become Fairholmes' Biyatch, and anyone who knows anything about this type of (in Fairholmes case) "non-Hedge Fund," they're all for wringing out every single, bloody dollar they can get to gain profit for themselves and their shareholders...good news for JOE stockholders(?) but discomforting as to the future direction of this area.

On well--for Auld Lang Syne, ya'll....on with the game and 2011!

Shel.

I don't agree with your characterization of Fairholm (Berkowitz) as some possessed activist hedge fund, hell bent on creating short term shareholder value (ala Wall Street 1). Berkowitz and Fairholm think South Walton is valuable. David Einhorn, has relied on a junior analyst, who tells him that South Walton is worthless, because it is not Miami. Berkowitz lives in South Florida, and can see the charm and value in Pandhandle Florida. He is long only. He is patient. He has the best track record of any fund manager in the last 20 years. He does hard work before making investments, and has a deep value bent. Einhorn does hard work too... but is prone to being more alarmist, short term oriented, and more mistake prone. Afterall, Einhorn runs a hedge fund, whereas Berkowitz runs a long only investment fund. Einhorn might like JOE one minute, and hate it the next, depending on a technical indicator or a 'hot tip'.

Einhorn is prone to vanity from my experience as well, so since Berko's work agrees with my own work on JOE, I'm inclined to side with Berkowitz, b/c I also feel that New York centric hedge fund managers don't have a good feel or understanding about South Walton, and can't even understand why anyone would want to have a 2nd home in SoWal -

[Bernarde]

as the money market and the real estate are suffering allot due to recession do you really think this is the time to have that big investment . as per my opinion no . and i would love to know about yours ? plz share

[robertsondavies]

That is absolutely the WORST piece of investment advice EVER. 50 Years? Do you understand JOES business model. They don't sell widgets or services. They have a limited inventory of land. In 50 years, JOE will be out of business. If successful, all land will be sold and remaining cash will be paid out to shareholders (with a terrible return after considering ongoing operating costs, corporate income taxes and personal taxes on the dividend to shareholders upon dissolution) or they will have gone bankrupt long before due to inability to cover operating costs.

At least CROX, INTEL, etc make products and do not have a finite supply of inventory from which to produce revenues and profits.

50 years-you lost that bet the minute you made it.

I actually would seriously doubt that Intel will be making chips for Personal Computers in 50 years, but I'm pretty sure people will still be taking vacations. Intel could become irrelevant actually within a few years, as others move into its turf a commoditizin PC chip business, and Intel misses the move to Tablets and Handsets. The PC is becoming less relevant, as storage and software is now in the "cloud", and a PC is increasingly becoming a shell with a screen and a keyboard, and a pipe to the "cloud." I won't be so irreverant however to say "you've lost that bet" the minute you made it, b/c Intel has strong cash flows, and is trading at what appears to be a cheap multiple vs. many other companies. That low multiple could be a buying opportunity, or it could simply mean that the market is correctly anticipating that earnings viability into the future are in question.

Thanks for playing, I'm sure I'll hear from you again if the S&P or Intel every start outperforming JOE, but that's probably unlikely. JOE was undervalued, and then someone of influence cried fire in the crowded theater back in November. The panic is over. Now the only people panicing, are those lemmings that followed Einhorn's junior analyst over the cliff,into determining that North Florida is useless, b/c he had no New Yorker friends who went there, or had heard of it.

[robertsondavies]

homeboy, I have seen this video a couple weeks ago. I thought it was hilarious too.

[wrobert]

Still waiting to hear how you valued JOE pre 2006 and how you are valuing it now.

You were negative JOE with a $5-6 Billion valuation when they had $1 billion in revenue. Now you are pro JOE with a $2 billion valuation and only $100 million in revenue.

Just wanting to understand your valuation methodology because it doesn't seem to make sense.

But that mega casino on Joe land is going to change all of that.

[robertsondavies]

But that mega casino on Joe land is going to change all of that.

Its an asset play. You don't do a discounted cash flow on an asset play, that is cyclical. You buy cyclical companies when people, like you, think they're expensive, based on an earnings or revenue multiple, and sell them counterlogically, when they appear cheap on those same metrics. Thats hard to get because it doesn't make sense to many at first, but it's cyclical company 101... I can assure you that once this lesson is learned it will never be forgotten. Mining companies were expensive as hell, on an earnings multiple basis, back a decade ago. That would have been the time to buy. When they now start talking about Freeport McMoran, or Teck Cominco (TCK) or Newmont, Barrick or Goldcorp as "cheap" on an earnings multiple basis soon, it will be time to run, it may be already.

[robertsondavies]

JOE tacked on another 10 % or so this week alone... but we'll await the official results, they might be coming out soon.

[Buz Livingston]

I don't agree with your characterization of Fairholm (Berkowitz) as some possessed activist hedge fund, hell bent on creating short term shareholder value (ala Wall Street 1). Berkowitz and Fairholm think South Walton is valuable. David Einhorn, has relied on a junior analyst, who tells him that South Walton is worthless, because it is not Miami. Berkowitz lives in South Florida, and can see the charm and value in Pandhandle Florida. He is long only. He is patient. He has the best track record of any fund manager in the last 20 years. He does hard work before making investments, and has a deep value bent. Einhorn does hard work too... but is prone to being more alarmist, short term oriented, and more mistake prone. Afterall, Einhorn runs a hedge fund, whereas Berkowitz runs a long only investment fund. Einhorn might like JOE one minute, and hate it the next, depending on a technical indicator or a 'hot tip'.

Einhorn is prone to vanity from my experience as well, so since Berko's work agrees with my own work on JOE, I'm inclined to side with Berkowitz, b/c I also feel that New York centric hedge fund managers don't have a good feel or understanding about South Walton, and can't even understand why anyone would want to have a 2nd home in SoWal -

But JOE is out of the good stuff to sell in SoWal.

Plus JOE owns thousands of lots NOT in SoWal-Tallahassee, Jacksonville and Port St Joe.

Going back to 1992, JOE loses to the S&P 500

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=J...urce=undefined

[robertsondavies]

But JOE is out of the good stuff to sell in SoWal.

Plus JOE owns thousands of lots NOT in SoWal-Tallahassee, Jacksonville and Port St Joe.

Going back to 1992, JOE loses to the S&P 500

St. Joe Company (The) Common St Stock Chart | JOE Interactive Chart - Yahoo! Finance

interesting historical observations buzz. what do you think on a go forward basis though? Are they really out of the good stuff? Bears on JOE are valuing their land at around 3 or 4K per acre. If there are any remaining acres around Watercolor, or Watersound, where there are about 6 lots per acre, I'd like to buy an acre for 100K, if I could - that would represent 5 or 6 lots at 17-20K a pop. It also represents acreage at THAT low price, that is about 3300% higher than the bearish analyst from New York City puts on the "redneck riviera". I think it is has been a serious mistake for Einhorn, but I'm guessing he's changed his mind already, although I sincerely hope he lets his ego get in the way, and doubles down. Anything you like here Buzz?
Did I mention I also like Regions FInancial at this point.

[robertsondavies]

... if you really KNOW that's what's going to happen, then why the HECK don't you get yourself a margin trading account, and short the bejesus out of JOE?

The only way I see JOE not being around in 5 years in its present form, is if it has been taken over, publicly or privately.

homeboy, JOE is up another 20% or so in the last ten days or so. I sincerely hope you havent' shorted it, but if you did, you may want to note that this morning, the company cancelled the Standstill Agreement that was in place, with respect to Fairholme. I don't have any insight specifically into this, but it does raise the possibility that a buyout could be being considered by the Board at Joe in the coming days.

[wrobert]

homeboy, JOE is up another 20% or so in the last ten days or so. I sincerely hope you havent' shorted it, but if you did, you may want to note that this morning, the company cancelled the Standstill Agreement that was in place, with respect to Fairholme. I don't have any insight specifically into this, but it does raise the possibility that a buyout could be being considered by the Board at Joe in the coming days.

We are now quickly approaching where I got on this train. Decisions, decisions.

[robertsondavies]

We are now quickly approaching where I got on this train. Decisions, decisions.

It's risen a quick 25 % or so, in the last couple months. I see this JOE movement as a VERY positive forecast for South Walton for 2011 and beyond. Obviously the stock is just a forecasting mechanism, but lets hope it is correct that beach real estate in the pandhandle is stabilizing this year, and probably headed higher in some categories or locales on the pandhandle. I think in an environment where the whole world, minus Europe is going gangbusters, and you have inflation, and our FED printing money like crazy, people might be very surprised how South Walton values snap back, harder and faster than nearly everyone would expect.

[Buz Livingston]

St. Joe Shares Popped: What You Need to Know (BLK, JOE)

"Now what: With seriously high-caliber investors on both sides of the scuffle, it's tough to decide whom to support. Thankfully, I'm more than happy to watch this one play out from the sidelines. Now that Fairholme no longer has the standstill agreement blocking it, it seems very possible that the fund could look for ways to take St. Joe private so that it can tend to its business without the pressure of the public markets."

I could see JOE being taken private - over 40% is owned by Fairholme and Blackrock.

[robertsondavies]

St. Joe Shares Popped: What You Need to Know (BLK, JOE)

"Now what: With seriously high-caliber investors on both sides of the scuffle, it's tough to decide whom to support. Thankfully, I'm more than happy to watch this one play out from the sidelines. Now that Fairholme no longer has the standstill agreement blocking it, it seems very possible that the fund could look for ways to take St. Joe private so that it can tend to its business without the pressure of the public markets."

I could see JOE being taken private - over 40% is owned by Fairholme and Blackrock.

me too. but i'm not a great prognosticator. Shelly is on the other side of this one

[Buz Livingston]

me too. but i'm not a great prognosticator. Shelly is on the other side of this one

My crystal ball is in the shop for repairs.

[homeboy]

interesting historical observations buzz. what do you think on a go forward basis though? Are they really out of the good stuff? Bears on JOE are valuing their land at around 3 or 4K per acre. If there are any remaining acres around Watercolor, or Watersound, where there are about 6 lots per acre, I'd like to buy an acre for 100K, if I could - that would represent 5 or 6 lots at 17-20K a pop. It also represents acreage at THAT low price, that is about 3300% higher than the bearish analyst from New York City puts on the "redneck riviera". I think it is has been a serious mistake for Einhorn, but I'm guessing he's changed his mind already, although I sincerely hope he lets his ego get in the way, and doubles down. Anything you like here Buzz?
Did I mention I also like Regions FInancial at this point.

Still haven't gotten your valuation methodology. Sounds to me like you bought in way too high and are hoping upon all hope that the stock makes an unlikely, short term return to where you bought in so you can dump and run.

In terms of your analysis above, you completely forgot to take into consideration the huge amount of infrastructure cost to develop the land. If you bought some of that acreage at $100k per acre you would likely lose money after putting in the necessary infrastructure to develop the land BEFORE you could actually sell lots.

Remember, most of JOEs land is swamp or near swamp land. There are hundreds of thousands of similar swamp land along the coast of Ms, La, Al, and other areas of Fl south of Walton County. It will be a long, long, long time, if ever, before any of this land will have any appreciable value. The limited number of near ocean acreage has some value but the rest of it is only worth the value of the timber. The can't give away already developed lots in very near ocean locations such as The Preserve, Cypress Dunes, Cypress Breeze, etc. What makes you think the swamp land much farther from the beach will sell for more than the lots in these near ocean developments.

Regarding the short term run up--the greater fool and short term trading theories are at work here. The Company is not worth any more than $1 billion, if that. And, I am talking about REAL underlying value--in other words, the how much investors will ULTIMATELY get in cash from there investments, not what traders buy and sell at day to day based on the latest way in which the wind blows.

Please post your valuation methodology that supports your ultimate valuation of the company. Until that time, your words are not credible. They are the words of a day trader hoping for a quick fix.

Good luck if you are truly buying and holding for 50 years which is the advice you gave everyone (which I seriously doubt).

[homeboy]

It's risen a quick 25 % or so, in the last couple months. I see this JOE movement as a VERY positive forecast for South Walton for 2011 and beyond. Obviously the stock is just a forecasting mechanism, but lets hope it is correct that beach real estate in the pandhandle is stabilizing this year, and probably headed higher in some categories or locales on the pandhandle. I think in an environment where the whole world, minus Europe is going gangbusters, and you have inflation, and our FED printing money like crazy, people might be very surprised how South Walton values snap back, harder and faster than nearly everyone would expect.

The stock has been up and down between 15 and 30 per share for the past 2.5 years. Why does the current short term up tick bode very well for SoWal in 2011? The bulk of JOES holdings aren't even in Walton County.

The forecast for 2011 by many indicates a record number of foreclosures. Prices continue to decline in SoWal and will likely continue for quite some time, albeit at a much slower pace. Land prices are still inflated in the major 30A developments like Watersound, Watercolor, Rosemary, and especially Alys. Until the land prices stop falling, overall property values will continue to decline. Way, way too much inventory in the market for prices to stabilize over the relative short term.

[homeboy]

homeboy, JOE is up another 20% or so in the last ten days or so. I sincerely hope you havent' shorted it, but if you did, you may want to note that this morning, the company cancelled the Standstill Agreement that was in place, with respect to Fairholme. I don't have any insight specifically into this, but it does raise the possibility that a buyout could be being considered by the Board at Joe in the coming days.

I don't short. And, I would not touch JOE, period. A history of very poor management, losing money hand over fist.

I would like to know when you believe JOE will actually turn a profit again?? And, how will they begin turning a profit.

Buyout? Yep, there is always a greater fool.

[robertsondavies]

I don't short. and I never slice

And, I would not touch JOE, period. A history of very poor management, losing money hand over fist.

poor mgmt, losing money, sounds like an attractive short to you no?
.

do you work for Einhorn?

[robertsondavies]

The stock has been up and down between 15 and 30 per share for the past 2.5 years. Why does the current short term up tick bode very well for SoWal in 2011? The bulk of JOES holdings aren't even in Walton County.

The forecast for 2011 by many indicates a record number of foreclosures. Prices continue to decline in SoWal and will likely continue for quite some time, albeit at a much slower pace. wanna bet, that many will be wrong? Land prices are still inflated in the major 30A developments like Watersound, Watercolor, Rosemary, and especially Alys. Until the land prices stop falling, overall property values will continue to decline. Way, way too much inventory in the market for prices to stabilize over the relative short term...

.....

[homeboy]

do you work for Einhorn?

Still beating around the bush because you dont have answers to any of the questions?

[ASH]

Check the other thread I just posted about Joe.

[wrobert]

It's risen a quick 25 % or so, in the last couple months. I see this JOE movement as a VERY positive forecast for South Walton for 2011 and beyond. Obviously the stock is just a forecasting mechanism, but lets hope it is correct that beach real estate in the pandhandle is stabilizing this year, and probably headed higher in some categories or locales on the pandhandle. I think in an environment where the whole world, minus Europe is going gangbusters, and you have inflation, and our FED printing money like crazy, people might be very surprised how South Walton values snap back, harder and faster than nearly everyone would expect.

I have never been one to get in and out of a stock. More buy and hold for a few years, so I am thinking I am just going to put this behind me and hold on for the long haul. I gave up on gambling and starting buying stocks instead several years back and still feel that I am pretty much money ahead so far. Maybe my luck will hold. Now everyone switch to Sprint and go buy a new Ford for me.

[robertsondavies]

I have never been one to get in and out of a stock. More buy and hold for a few years, so I am thinking I am just going to put this behind me and hold on for the long haul. I gave up on gambling and starting buying stocks instead several years back and still feel that I am pretty much money ahead so far. Maybe my luck will hold. Now everyone switch to Sprint and go buy a new Ford for me.

I think Sprint is a double this year.