Nervous Property Owners

[OnMackBayou]

I have read all the interesting posts regarding the bubble burst theory, and want to assist any lot/home owners within a 5 minute walk to the beach.

If you believe the local market will soon retreat 50%, and want out now before it's too late, please e-mail me at assetmgsrv@aol.com. I can close within 2 weeks.

Only the very, very nervous need respond.

[phdphay]

Oh - My - God! Beachside Property Might Not Increase In Value At The Exponential Rates At Which It Has Grown Recently, But We All Know That There Is Only So Much Beachside Property Left, And The Demand Outweighs The Supply. The "skeered" People Are The Ones Who Just Recently Spent Way Too Much For Property And Can't Make A Boatload Of Profit Like Those From Whom They Made Their Purchases. They Just Got Into The Game Too Late. Even If The Market Is On The Negative Slope Of The Curve, Those Of Us Who Invested A Few Years Ago Are Coolio. Imho, That Is.

BTW dunno why my "all caps" for emphasis got canned.

[OnMackBayou]

For those of you out there looking at this who have property to sell, please disregard any logic you may find in these responses.

[phdphay]

For those of you out there looking at this who have property to sell, please disregard any logic you may find in these responses.

I think I'm going to have a seizure. "Please disregard any logic" is so alien to my mindset that I think I need some Xanax to deal with this statement.

[FoX]

I think I'm going to have a seizure. "Please disregard any logic" is so alien to my mindset that I think I need some Xanax to deal with this statement.

You obviously decided to forgoe "Tongue In Cheek 101" and "Introduction To Mild Sarcasm" at your alma mater.

I believe this is the 2nd time today you have mentioned Xanax. Do you not know that pot grows like a weed?

[SHELLY]

This is not advertising....I just came across an interesting website that they're going to start in a couple of months called condoflip.com whereas people could list their the condo contracts they want to flip at a mear 4% commission. This Florida condo-frenzy is about to take a VERY ugly turn in a couple of months and there definately is going to be money lost--should be really interesting to follow the action as this story unfolds, I predict the condo thing is going to go down in a ball of flames and kick start the real estate tumble.

[OnMackBayou]

My shark instincts are telling me to start circling. But I must wait until I smell the blood.

[Smiling JOe]

I think I'm going to have a seizure. "Please disregard any logic" is so alien to my mindset that I think I need some Xanax to deal with this statement.

"To know nothing, is to experience all."

[RiverOtter]

I would also like to releave some of the anxiety of the property owners. (As a goodwill service of course) Why take a 50% hit in a few weeks when you could only take a 30% - 40% hit by selling to me now

[phdphay]

You obviously decided to forgoe "Tongue In Cheek 101" and "Introduction To Mild Sarcasm" at your alma mater.

I believe this is the 2nd time today you have mentioned Xanax. Do you not know that pot grows like a weed?

LOL. I take things so seriously. I think it's part of the oldest-child syndrome.

In my profession I can't do anything illegal or even untoward, not that I'd want to ... well, maybe sometimes. :)

[OnMackBayou]

Okay, nervous property owners, I will give my e-mail address again. It is assetmgsrv@aol.com. I want to hear from anyone who seriously thinks they are at risk with their investment. If you think the market is about to enter a death spiral, I will gladly help relieve your stress.

If you think the market is going to go down 50%, I will seriously look at purchasing your property at only a 29% discount.

[RiverOtter]

Okay, nervous property owners, I will give my e-mail address again. It is assetmgsrv@aol.com. I want to hear from anyone who seriously thinks they are at risk with their investment. If you think the market is about to enter a death spiral, I will gladly help relieve your stress.

If you think the market is going to go down 50%, I will seriously look at purchasing your property at only a 29% discount.

I'll buy for 25% discount Ut oh... Do you think this will start another feeding frenzey

[BrettMan]

Do I hear 5% discount? I'll sell you my property for 5% less than it's current list price...

[RiverOtter]

Do I hear 5% discount? I'll sell you my property for 5% less than it's current list price...

25%

[OnMackBayou]

24%

[RiverOtter]

24%

D*!#@!



23%

[Georgian]

Skier must be daytrading. I expected him to accept your offers by now.
:laughing1

[OnMackBayou]

22.9%.

Seriously, I will pay for two appraisals, we'll take the average. You'll get your money in two weeks.

RiverOtter, you're killing me. By the way, you have been called away on urgent business to Tibet, and you must leave immediately for an indefinite stay. And no proxy bidders for you.

[skier]

Georgian,

Read my last post under "bubble bursting". I have no desire to rush out of the market. I've got plenty of cushion as I purchased a couple of years ago. We bought not as an investment but as a place for the family to enjoy. I can easily afford what I have and have no worries about rising interest rates or falling prices.

That said, if someone is willing to pay me $1100 per square foot comparable to some fairly recent sales in the area (not a discount of 20,21,22,23,24,etc. percent), I'll take the money. Then, I'll sit back and watch the market. If it falls as I think it will, I'll reinvest. If not, I'll use the interest on my after tax gain and become a renter again.

We are happy whichever way the cards fall.

[RiverOtter]

22.9%.


RiverOtter, you're killing me. By the way, you have been called away on urgent business to Tibet, and you must leave immediately for an indefinite stay. And no proxy bidders for you.

Curses!

Tibet???? When I get there can I call myself the Great White Warlord?

[OnMackBayou]

You may indeed call yourself that. The gang will be waiting at the airport in Tibet to present you with your tribal mask.

[Smiling JOe]

Okay, nervous property owners, I will give my e-mail address again. It is assetmgsrv@aol.com. I want to hear from anyone who seriously thinks they are at risk with their investment. If you think the market is about to enter a death spiral, I will gladly help relieve your stress.

If you think the market is going to go down 50%, I will seriously look at purchasing your property at only a 29% discount.

You better be careful because I can find you plenty of examples of similar properties in close proximity to each other, with a price differential of 50%. If you are willing to pay a 29% discount on the higher priced property, you will have overpaid by 21%.

[OnMackBayou]

That is very good advice. However, I would be using two really fine appraisers. One is my brother Larry, and the other one is my other brother Larry.

[Smiling JOe]

That is very good advice. However, I would be using two really fine appraisers. One is my brother Larry, and the other one is my other brother Larry.

I bet you will get two different appaised values from your brother, Larry and your other brother, Larry.

[monty]

I have read all the interesting posts regarding the bubble burst theory, and want to assist any lot/home owners within a 5 minute walk to the beach.

If you believe the local market will soon retreat 50%, and want out now before it's too late, please e-mail me at assetmgsrv@aol.com. I can close within 2 weeks.

Only the very, very nervous need respond.

I wonder how this turned out????

[SHELLY]

I wonder how this turned out????

...probably with a couple dozen lot owners kicking themselves in the arse for not taking him up on the offer.

.

[AAbsolute]

This is not advertising....I just came across an interesting website that they're going to start in a couple of months called condoflip.com whereas people could list their the condo contracts they want to flip at a mear 4% commission. This Florida condo-frenzy is about to take a VERY ugly turn in a couple of months and there definately is going to be money lost--should be really interesting to follow the action as this story unfolds, I predict the condo thing is going to go down in a ball of flames and kick start the real estate tumble.

Good call. You were within 2 months of the turn.

Can you make it a great call and tell us when the rebound will begin within 2 months as well?

[Miss Kitty]

....that was a blast from the past!

PhD Phay!!!!!

[30ashopper]

This is not advertising....I just came across an interesting website that they're going to start in a couple of months called condoflip.com whereas people could list their the condo contracts they want to flip at a mear 4% commission. This Florida condo-frenzy is about to take a VERY ugly turn in a couple of months and there definately is going to be money lost--should be really interesting to follow the action as this story unfolds, I predict the condo thing is going to go down in a ball of flames and kick start the real estate tumble.

Shelly gets and deserves a thanks for that little bit o' wisdom.

[AAbsolute]

Shelly gets and deserves a thanks for that little bit o' wisdom.

Now let's see if he can call the recovery with the same accuracy.

[Miss Critter]

Good call. You were within 2 months of the turn.

Can you make it a great call and tell us when the rebound will begin within 2 months as well?

or maybe within 2 years?

[SHELLY]

Now let's see if he can call the recovery with the same accuracy.

Define "recovery."

.

[AAbsolute]

Define "recovery."

.

The replacement of Sowal real estate value erosion with appreciation measured in US dollars.

[Pirate]

Shelly gets and deserves a thanks for that little bit o' wisdom.

Shelly was calling for an implosion at least a year before this post.

[YoungFT]

What a fascinating thread on so many levels!

As for calling the bottom, if you have the time, interest and appetite check out the following - great data on current state of affairs, how we got here and what's to come...

http://www.designs.valueinvestorinsi...g_Analysis.pdf

[SHELLY]

As for calling the bottom, if you have the time, interest and appetite check out the following - great data on current state of affairs, how we got here and what's to come...

http://www.designs.valueinvestorinsi...g_Analysis.pdf

Nice slide show--several pictures worth $700 Billion Dollars (+ much, much more!)

.

[AAbsolute]

What a fascinating thread on so many levels!

As for calling the bottom, if you have the time, interest and appetite check out the following - great data on current state of affairs, how we got here and what's to come...

http://www.designs.valueinvestorinsi...g_Analysis.pdf

That was a real good piece. I have to say that it leaves me optimistic.

[traderx]

Very interesting presentation. The part that struck me the most is how leveraged the European banks are. I hope their central banks are printing money to cover.

[fisher]

Shelly was calling for an implosion at least a year before this post.

Shelly has been dead on with most of his/her predictions. HOWEVER, he/she had only been a member of this forum for a week or so when this thread was started.

[SWGB]

Shelly has been dead on with most of his/her predictions. HOWEVER, he/she had only been a member of this forum for a week or so when this thread was started.

Congratulations it's a boy.

[Beach Runner]

I wish I had taken someone up on a 25% discount back in 2005. And I know someone who paid a huge amount of money for a lot for which the one next door hasn't sold for half that, so 50% would make them happy right now.

Who would've thunk? I remember back in 2005 hearing stories about people having houses on the market with no offers and then successfully selling after raising the prices. The snob appeal of a more expensive property? Reaching a more affluent group by being put in a higher price category in an online property search?

[AAbsolute]

I wish I had taken someone up on a 25% discount back in 2005. And I know someone who paid a huge amount of money for a lot for which the one next door hasn't sold for half that, so 50% would make them happy right now.

Who would've thunk? I remember back in 2005 hearing stories about people having houses on the market with no offers and then successfully selling after raising the prices. The snob appeal of a more expensive property? Reaching a more affluent group by being put in a higher price category in an online property search?

That's how the Madoff scam worked and the construction costs of $300 per square foot too. People work their whole lives saving and then give it away because they want to be involved in something they know they don't understand.

[SHELLY]

Who would've thunk? I remember back in 2005 hearing stories about people having houses on the market with no offers and then successfully selling after raising the prices. The snob appeal of a more expensive property? Reaching a more affluent group by being put in a higher price category in an online property search?

In some cases the "raising of prices" wasn't about snobbery, it was more about mortgage fraud. The investulator would raise the "price" of the house, the appraiser would "hit the number," the mortgage broker would write up the deal and the bank would pay out. The investulator was just happy to dump the house, and the others in on the scheme would split the difference between the old mortgage and new mortgage. Then, if they were lucky, they would be able to find some bigger fool to come along and purchase the home at the higher price so they can get away clean.

.

[Beach Runner]

Whoa! I did not know that.

[SHELLY]

Whoa! I did not know that.

For Example:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/busines...icle815954.ece

--------------------------
Florida sues over $37-million mortgage fraud
By Susan Taylor Martin, Times Senior Correspondent
September 18, 2008

Last year, Re/Max International honored Lori Polin of Tampa as one of an elite group of real estate agents with gross commissions of at least $500,000.

Now, Florida's attorney general says, approximately $165,250 of Polin's commissions came from her role in a major mortgage fraud scheme that bilked lenders out of more than $37-million and ultimately caused some 50 homes throughout Central Florida to go into foreclosure.

In a lawsuit filed Wednesday in Orlando, prosecutors sued 10 companies and 15 individuals, including Allen Boyarsky, a lawyer with a history of drug arrests who was involved with Polin in several suspect real estate transactions first reported in the St. Petersburg Times in November.

Polin, 49, is not named as a defendant because real estate agents are exempt from the Florida Deceptive and Unfair Trade Practices Act, the law that Boyarsky and others are accused of violating.

But the lawsuit alleges that Polin was one of three agents who conspired with Boyarsky and two other men to artificially inflate the purchase prices of homes so the defendants could obtain bigger loans.

"After the biased article you wrote, I will not make any comments to you,'' Polin, now with a Re/Max office in Tampa, told a reporter Wednesday. Boyarsky, who lives in Palm Harbor, could not be reached.

While working for American Heritage Mortgage in Tampa in 2006, Boyarsky, company president Marcus Habeeb and Aziz Mohammed recruited "straw buyers'' with good credit and paid them to apply for loans on houses sold at inflated prices. The men received "large amounts of cash at closing,'' but failed to pay the mortgages, thereby "enabling them and their respective companies to profit from the fraudulently obtained mortgages,'' the lawsuit says.

In all, the lawsuit says, the three men and their co-defendants siphoned off more than $6-million of loan proceeds from at least 60 house sales.

Polin told the Times last year that she first met Boyarsky when she sold him her home in Oldsmar, with Habeeb co-signing the loan. According to Wednesday's suit, Boyarsky asked Polin to inflate the asking prices of properties listed for sale with the now-defunct Re/Max office in Clearwater where she worked.

In one case, the lawsuit says, Polin listed an Oldsmar home for $699,000 in December 2005 and reduced it by $50,000 in January 2006. However, after being approached by Boyarsky and/or Habeeb about the property, Polin raised the price to $725,000. Within two days the house was under contract to Jeanette Lugo, a young Orange County woman who had been paid $10,000 to be the straw buyer.

The sellers did not receive the increased sales price, which instead went to a trucking company whose owner, defendant Stephen Mahadeo, received $100,000 from the loan proceeds at closing.

The lawsuit says Boyarsky and Habeeb prepared a loan application for Lugo that falsely indicated she made $17,800 a month as a "senior executive partner" for an investment firm. Lugo, also a defendant in the suit, actually worked for Sprint as a customer service representative.

The Oldsmar house went into foreclosure in January and is now on the market for $351,900 — $373,000 less than it sold for two years ago.

Polin served as the seller's Realtor for five separate purchases by Lugo, and eight transactions in all.

"In some cases,'' the lawsuit says, "the listed properties had languished on the market for months and the prices had been substantially reduced before Polin convinced the sellers to raise the prices significantly for purchase by Boyarsky's and Habeeb's straw buyers.''

Another real estate agent, Dawn St. Hillaire, allegedly inflated the prices on five houses, allowing her and/or her firm, an ERA affiliate in Lake County, to collect $148,346 in commissions. A third agent, Heather Showalter of Pinellas, bought four houses herself, though the lawsuit does not say who allegedly profited from those transactions.

Other alleged straw buyers include Kimberly Gleaton, who was shown on loan documents as the $15,500-a-month operations manager for an Orlando construction company. In fact, Gleaton, who is not listed as a defendant, had been with the company only three months and made $17 an hour as a part-time assistant.

Among the lenders affected by the alleged fraud scheme was IndyMac, a California-based bank that was seized by federal regulators in July as one of the many casualties of the subprime mortgage crisis that has threatened the entire U.S. financial system. Wednesday's lawsuit comes the same week that Lehman Bros. went bankrupt, Merrill Lynch was sold in a shotgun sale to Bank of America and the federal government bailed out insurance giant A.I.G.

"In this particular situation,'' Attorney General Bill McCollum said of the Florida scheme, "the economy is the victim. This group of individuals systematically defrauded banks and mortgage lenders, stealing millions for their own personal use and leaving a gaping hole in the system.''

The lawsuit seeks damages for the lenders and civil penalties of $10,000 for each violation of the deceptive practices act. Florida's Department of Business and Professional Regulation, which regulates the real estate industry, would not comment on whether there is any investigation of Polin and the other two agents mentioned in the lawsuit.

However, the Florida Department of Law Enforcement "has been working with the Attorney General's Office and the Pinellas County Sheriff's Office for several months concerning the case,'' FDLE spokesperson Trena Reddick said. "Our investigation continues and there may be arrests in the future.''

The Times was unable to reach most of the defendants, including Mohammed, who may have fled to Trinidad, and Habeeb, the mortgage company president. Habeeb, who lives in New York, told the Times last year that he had closed his Florida offices because mortgage fraud had become so rampant. "The whole of Florida, all the transactions are funny,'' Habeeb said at the time. "All you got is fraud going on.''

[AAbsolute]

For Example:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/busines...icle815954.ece

--------------------------
Florida sues over $37-million mortgage fraud
By Susan Taylor Martin, Times Senior Correspondent
September 18, 2008

Last year, Re/Max International honored Lori Polin of Tampa as one of an elite group of real estate agents with gross commissions of at least $500,000.

Now, Florida's attorney general says, approximately $165,250 of Polin's commissions came from her role in a major mortgage fraud scheme that bilked lenders out of more than $37-million and ultimately caused some 50 homes throughout Central Florida to go into foreclosure.

In a lawsuit filed Wednesday in Orlando, prosecutors sued 10 companies and 15 individuals, including Allen Boyarsky, a lawyer with a history of drug arrests who was involved with Polin in several suspect real estate transactions first reported in the St. Petersburg Times in November.

Polin, 49, is not named as a defendant because real estate agents are exempt from the Florida Deceptive and Unfair Trade Practices Act, the law that Boyarsky and others are accused of violating.

But the lawsuit alleges that Polin was one of three agents who conspired with Boyarsky and two other men to artificially inflate the purchase prices of homes so the defendants could obtain bigger loans.

"After the biased article you wrote, I will not make any comments to you,'' Polin, now with a Re/Max office in Tampa, told a reporter Wednesday. Boyarsky, who lives in Palm Harbor, could not be reached.

While working for American Heritage Mortgage in Tampa in 2006, Boyarsky, company president Marcus Habeeb and Aziz Mohammed recruited "straw buyers'' with good credit and paid them to apply for loans on houses sold at inflated prices. The men received "large amounts of cash at closing,'' but failed to pay the mortgages, thereby "enabling them and their respective companies to profit from the fraudulently obtained mortgages,'' the lawsuit says.

In all, the lawsuit says, the three men and their co-defendants siphoned off more than $6-million of loan proceeds from at least 60 house sales.

Polin told the Times last year that she first met Boyarsky when she sold him her home in Oldsmar, with Habeeb co-signing the loan. According to Wednesday's suit, Boyarsky asked Polin to inflate the asking prices of properties listed for sale with the now-defunct Re/Max office in Clearwater where she worked.

In one case, the lawsuit says, Polin listed an Oldsmar home for $699,000 in December 2005 and reduced it by $50,000 in January 2006. However, after being approached by Boyarsky and/or Habeeb about the property, Polin raised the price to $725,000. Within two days the house was under contract to Jeanette Lugo, a young Orange County woman who had been paid $10,000 to be the straw buyer.

The sellers did not receive the increased sales price, which instead went to a trucking company whose owner, defendant Stephen Mahadeo, received $100,000 from the loan proceeds at closing.

The lawsuit says Boyarsky and Habeeb prepared a loan application for Lugo that falsely indicated she made $17,800 a month as a "senior executive partner" for an investment firm. Lugo, also a defendant in the suit, actually worked for Sprint as a customer service representative.

The Oldsmar house went into foreclosure in January and is now on the market for $351,900 — $373,000 less than it sold for two years ago.

Polin served as the seller's Realtor for five separate purchases by Lugo, and eight transactions in all.

"In some cases,'' the lawsuit says, "the listed properties had languished on the market for months and the prices had been substantially reduced before Polin convinced the sellers to raise the prices significantly for purchase by Boyarsky's and Habeeb's straw buyers.''

Another real estate agent, Dawn St. Hillaire, allegedly inflated the prices on five houses, allowing her and/or her firm, an ERA affiliate in Lake County, to collect $148,346 in commissions. A third agent, Heather Showalter of Pinellas, bought four houses herself, though the lawsuit does not say who allegedly profited from those transactions.

Other alleged straw buyers include Kimberly Gleaton, who was shown on loan documents as the $15,500-a-month operations manager for an Orlando construction company. In fact, Gleaton, who is not listed as a defendant, had been with the company only three months and made $17 an hour as a part-time assistant.

Among the lenders affected by the alleged fraud scheme was IndyMac, a California-based bank that was seized by federal regulators in July as one of the many casualties of the subprime mortgage crisis that has threatened the entire U.S. financial system. Wednesday's lawsuit comes the same week that Lehman Bros. went bankrupt, Merrill Lynch was sold in a shotgun sale to Bank of America and the federal government bailed out insurance giant A.I.G.

"In this particular situation,'' Attorney General Bill McCollum said of the Florida scheme, "the economy is the victim. This group of individuals systematically defrauded banks and mortgage lenders, stealing millions for their own personal use and leaving a gaping hole in the system.''

The lawsuit seeks damages for the lenders and civil penalties of $10,000 for each violation of the deceptive practices act. Florida's Department of Business and Professional Regulation, which regulates the real estate industry, would not comment on whether there is any investigation of Polin and the other two agents mentioned in the lawsuit.

However, the Florida Department of Law Enforcement "has been working with the Attorney General's Office and the Pinellas County Sheriff's Office for several months concerning the case,'' FDLE spokesperson Trena Reddick said. "Our investigation continues and there may be arrests in the future.''

The Times was unable to reach most of the defendants, including Mohammed, who may have fled to Trinidad, and Habeeb, the mortgage company president. Habeeb, who lives in New York, told the Times last year that he had closed his Florida offices because mortgage fraud had become so rampant. "The whole of Florida, all the transactions are funny,'' Habeeb said at the time. "All you got is fraud going on.''

What I don't understand is:

If there were people buying and developing housing just like theirs in the same area for less (real pricing) , how did this group explain the actions of their competitors prices? You would think any reasonable person seeing homes just like theirs for six figures less would have noticed this inflation of value fraud. Did nobody ever put two and two together?

[SHELLY]

Did nobody ever put two and two together?

....in this case being able to add wasn't a requirement.....the honors went to the folks who could bring in the highest commissions.

Here's the bio that appeared on the REMAX website:

Lori Polin is ranked top in the top 1% in the nation among all Realtors in performance. She is a full time, dedicated, well-respected Realtor and community leader in the Tampa Bay area. She is ranked among the top agents in the Re/Max International community, as well. Lori was voted Honorary Mayor of Palm Harbor, a former director of the Palm Harbor Chamber of Commerce, she is currently on the Executive Board of the Upper Tampa Bay Chamber of Commerce and the East Lake Woodlands Rotary Club. A resident of the Tampa Bay area for 25 years, Lori Polin is considered an expert in the field of real estate.

.

[ClintClint]

....in this case being able to add wasn't a requirement.....the honors went to the folks who could bring in the highest commissions.

Here's the bio that appeared on the REMAX website:

Lori Polin is ranked top in the top 1% in the nation among all Realtors in performance. She is a full time, dedicated, well-respected Realtor and community leader in the Tampa Bay area. She is ranked among the top agents in the Re/Max International community, as well. Lori was voted Honorary Mayor of Palm Harbor, a former director of the Palm Harbor Chamber of Commerce, she is currently on the Executive Board of the Upper Tampa Bay Chamber of Commerce and the East Lake Woodlands Rotary Club. A resident of the Tampa Bay area for 25 years, Lori Polin is considered an expert in the field of real estate.

.

Sounds like someone was givin' or takin' a good Polin' in Tampa

[operationivy]

Like Zohari and George Rithaldi?

[SHELLY]

Like Zohari and George Rithaldi?

..and there it is folks--"The Circle of Life."

.