Back from vacation--market looks very soft

[skier]

Hey guys, back from my extended vacation on the gulf coast. It was great except for being chased away for three days by a guy named Dennis.

What I noted during my time in on 30-A is a continued softening of the market. While a several high dollar homes have sold over the last couple of months in Rosemary, Seaside, Seacrest, Watercolor, Grayton, etc, the number of new listings hitting the market far exceeds the number being sold. The inventory is building rapidly and those that need to get out of the market are lowering asking prices dramatically. I saw some homeowners drop prices twice just over the past four weeks. Some price decreases over the last few months are in excess of 20%. In Watercolor, there were approximately 125 properties on the market in mid-May. Today the number approaches 180 (that's between 20 and 25% of the total units!!!!). I think Rosemary has close to 100 properties on the market, Seaside 40ish, etc, etc. I believe the inventory growth situation is similar up and down 30-A. That's a bit scary to me. Are all of these folks selling because they need to (are they flippers that never intended to own long term or multiple property owners that now need to dump some investments), are they simply trying to cash out, or are they just testing the market?

I also tried counting the number of properties on the MLS from Sandestin to the east end of 30-A. There are over 700 properties for sale in excess of $1.5 million and another 1000 plus in the $750k to $1.5 million range. At recent rates of sale (based on Walton County tax appraiser site), that makes for about 4, 5 or more years of inventory (as opposed to less than a years inventory last year) of these high value properties and the number is growing weekly. My figures might be off because I am not privy to all the facts that a real estate agent is so someone should check my numbers.

I do believe the market is very desirable and sales will pick up once the prices fall enough and the market stabilizes. I heard a few potential buyers say that they were waiting on the sidelines until things "bottom out" in terms of prices.

Don't want to start another war, just looking to see how others see the current market.

[lollygal]

So glad you're back with such upbeat info, Skier . . .

[skier]

Just trying to report what I saw and nothing else and get others perspectives. Reality, not hype. I wish the facts were different. This forum appears to be for the discussion of real estate sales and development. That's all I am trying to discuss in a fair and honest way.

Other than the Dennis related threads and the restaurant reviews, I believe the last thread I started regarding a bubble was the most hotly debated and widely viewed thread on the website. The debate was informative on both sides, included some fun, and was civilized most of the time.

I look forward to hearing the opinion of others more in tune to the market than I am.

[Philip_Atlanta]

I checked the MLS system and only found 94 properties in Watercolor (I'm not sure where your numbers come from or if perhaps I searched wrong). I don't know how many units are in Watercolor, but I'd guess somewhere around 1k, so around 10% are up for sale. In comparison, my subdivision in the relatively flat Atlanta market currently has about 10% of the homes on the market (a sample of 700 homes).

I'd chalk it up to we are in the height of the selling season and plenty of people are fishing all across the country.

[RiverOtter]

Things do seem quite skier

[skier]

Philip,

I get the list of properties directly from Arvida sales (it only includes listings by Arvida and not other realtors) and it includes about 120 properties--land, condos and homes. The rest I got by going to Destin Properties website and counting those listed by other agents. Its at least 180. Not sure why the MLS you were looking at had so few of the total listings. In terms of total units, there will eventually be about 1k, but Arvida still has a lot of unsold lots in phase IV and many lots it still owns in Phase III. So, in terms of non-Arvida owned units, the inventory is in the range of 20-25%.

[Philip_Atlanta]

Philip,

I get the list of properties directly from Arvida sales (it only includes listings by Arvida and not other realtors) and it includes about 120 properties--land, condos and homes. The rest I got by going to Destin Properties website and counting those listed by other agents. Its at least 180. Not sure why the MLS you were looking at had so few of the total listings. In terms of total units, there will eventually be about 1k, but Arvida still has a lot of unsold lots in phase IV and many lots it still owns in Phase III. So, in terms of non-Arvida owned units, the inventory is in the range of 20-25%.

Hmm. Sounds like you have more accurate information then. Perhaps Arvida doesn't list each individual property in the system. In that case, then all I can say is 25% inventory is a rather daunting number, especially if you are a flipper and you need to unload. I'm interested to see more responses to this thread...

[skier]

And the Arvida listings for Watersound exceed 40. There are MANY others listed by other agents/brokers.

[kurt]

That's a bit scary to me.

Welcome back. Why is it scary to you? I thought you weren't concerned about your own situation?

Other than the Dennis related threads and the restaurant reviews, I believe the last thread I started regarding a bubble was the most hotly debated and widely viewed thread on the website.

Bubbles, hurricanes, sharks, erosion, dune destruction, and cuisine are popular.

[Donna]

I am a homeowner (house not on the market nor are we in the market for a purchase) and certainly don't think of this board as a real estate guide. What we enjoy is hearing about the condition of the beaches, getting to "know" others who enjoy or live in South Walton County, and seeing the photos since we can't be there as often as we might like. We like the restaurant reviews and the occasional seafood recipe, too. The board has been especially helpful to us for opportunieis to identify and patronize local businesses, since we live elsewhere. Kurt's advertising and virtual tour of our home has offered great results in combination with our rental/management company. And I can't even say how important this board has been as we watch storms and try to assess their aftermath accurately or how our property fared.

What I have seen over the past few weeks is a number of postings from individuals who seem to have lowering real estate prices in the area as their objective. The claims are not based on credible evidence and it appears that several of those posting wish to create a panic situation so that property prices drop. Could it be there is some self interest involved here?

Well located real estate will always hold its value. Don't be fooled by this kind of unsubstantiated hype. And those waiting for prices to go down may be crying crocodile tears a year from now when a slight correction occurs and interest rates have gone up even more. The speculation in preconstruction condominiums will cool by virtue of its own dynamic. But this is a specific niche in the market there. Keep your eye on the ball.

[TooFarTampa]

I agree with you that the market has softened. It doesn't seem like it's a bad thing, though; these kinds of gains could not continue and eventually the investors were going to go away. Meanwhile, nearly every property owner in the area who bought a year or more ago is looking at significant paper gains and a staggering number are looking to cash in. So everyone put their house on the market at once (or it seems like it). Some may have had to, many were testing the market, some just thought some quick cash would be nice.

Those paper gains aren't real. It's not going to hold up in the short term. There are too many sellers and not enough buyers at those prices, especially given the multiple, nationally publicized warnings of a bubble. Most of the sales along 30-A are second homes or investment properties. People can wait a couple years for the second home; they want to see what the prices end up doing. As far as investment -- well, you can't usually cover costs with rental income, and if the prices aren't continuing to climb, where is the short-term investment?

So of course it is a buyers' market. And it needs to stabilize.

Only those who are pure investors and can't really afford their property are the ones who should be scared. It might take two or three years to weed all those people out of the market. Predictably, they will lower their prices to make their homes more attractive in a huge sea of listings so they can get out.

I'll admit it -- we are investors. But something funny happened while we were watching the prices rise. We fell in love with the area. Absolutely fell in love with it! We have a house (on the rental program) and also a lot 50 yards from a walkover in Seagrove. We are now emotionally attached and instead of thinking of selling either of them, we are dreaming of long-term involvement. Fun family gatherings, vacations in the summer and long weekends when we can. We are thinking of, eventually, building our own retirement home in Seagrove. SoWal has that kind of effect on people.

This devotion is a lot of work and for now means a negative cash flow. But that's OK. Because once we get out we know we won't be able to get back in.

That's the inherent value in the area -- it's a winning combination of the beaches, the emerald water, the small-town feel and most of all, the people. As long as it is not allowed to become another Destin (let's hope the county understands this) and we don't have a 20-year devastating cycle of hurricanes, I think we'll be OK in the long term. The baby boomers are not a myth and neither is the new airport. I am looking for prices to stay fairly stable for awhile but rents to go up. Those who absolutely have to sell now will have to lower their prices, but unless they just bought they should still walk away with some nice profits.

[kurt]

Another winning entry ftom TFT.

[skier]

Kurt,

The scary part of the housing issue is not related simply to SoWal. I am more worried about the bigger housing market in the US and SoWal is just a small piece of the bigger picture. Rapid declines in housing prices would not be good for the economy. Personally, related to my own investment in Fla, I am not scared.

TFT,

Very well said.

[kurt]

Kurt,

The scary part of the housing issue is not related simply to SoWal. I am more worried about the bigger housing market in the US and SoWal is just a small piece of the bigger picture. Rapid declines in housing prices would not be good for the economy. Personally, related to my own investment in Fla, I am not scared.

TFT,

Very well said.

Don't forget to relax. At least when you visit us.

[phdphay]

Another winning entry ftom TFT.

Agreed. We adore this place!

[STL Don]

I agree with you that the market has softened. It doesn't seem like it's a bad thing, though; these kinds of gains could not continue and eventually the investors were going to go away. Meanwhile, nearly every property owner in the area who bought a year or more ago is looking at significant paper gains and a staggering number are looking to cash in. So everyone put their house on the market at once (or it seems like it). Some may have had to, many were testing the market, some just thought some quick cash would be nice.

Those paper gains aren't real. It's not going to hold up in the short term. There are too many sellers and not enough buyers at those prices, especially given the multiple, nationally publicized warnings of a bubble. Most of the sales along 30-A are second homes or investment properties. People can wait a couple years for the second home; they want to see what the prices end up doing. As far as investment -- well, you can't usually cover costs with rental income, and if the prices aren't continuing to climb, where is the short-term investment?

So of course it is a buyers' market. And it needs to stabilize.

Only those who are pure investors and can't really afford their property are the ones who should be scared. It might take two or three years to weed all those people out of the market. Predictably, they will lower their prices to make their homes more attractive in a huge sea of listings so they can get out.

I'll admit it -- we are investors. But something funny happened while we were watching the prices rise. We fell in love with the area. Absolutely fell in love with it! We have a house (on the rental program) and also a lot 50 yards from a walkover in Seagrove. We are now emotionally attached and instead of thinking of selling either of them, we are dreaming of long-term involvement. Fun family gatherings, vacations in the summer and long weekends when we can. We are thinking of, eventually, building our own retirement home in Seagrove. SoWal has that kind of effect on people.

This devotion is a lot of work and for now means a negative cash flow. But that's OK. Because once we get out we know we won't be able to get back in.

That's the inherent value in the area -- it's a winning combination of the beaches, the emerald water, the small-town feel and most of all, the people. As long as it is not allowed to become another Destin (let's hope the county understands this) and we don't have a 20-year devastating cycle of hurricanes, I think we'll be OK in the long term. The baby boomers are not a myth and neither is the new airport. I am looking for prices to stay fairly stable for awhile but rents to go up. Those who absolutely have to sell now will have to lower their prices, but unless they just bought they should still walk away with some nice profits.

TFT--very well said and quite balanced.

Skier--too much doom and gloom

[drsvelte]

An informative and timely thread. I appreciate the perspectives of both TFT and Skier. I love the one year doubling of my home's value (on paper ) as much as anyone, but that's clearly not sustainable. Skier's numbers don't suggest doom and gloom, just a sense of reality.

[Philip_Atlanta]

An informative and timely thread. I appreciate the perspectives of both TFT and Skier. I love the one year doubling of my home's value (on paper ) as much as anyone, but that's clearly not sustainable. Skier's numbers don't suggest doom and gloom, just a sense of reality.

Agreed - I don't think Skier's post is "doom and gloom" - simply putting out some numbers to ponder. Clearly, 20-25% of the properties on the market would not be considered "healthy". I don't consider the properties that I own pure investments (there are intrisic values outlined in TFT's post); however, being informed about the market we are in is quite useful information.

[Linda]

TFT - My sentiments exactly!

[Camp Creek Kid]

I know a family with 3 homes on the market--two investments and their current permanent home. Their permanent home is for sale at a ridiculous price and they know it. My friends hadn't intended to put their home on the market until their neighbors put their house up for sale at an even more ridiculous price.

I imagine that there is a lot of this going on. My friends are in no hurry to sell and they won't sell unless they get the ridiculous price they're asking. Their plan is to live in whichever of the three houses doesn't sell.

[RiverOtter]

I know a family with 3 homes on the market--two investments and their current permanent home. Their permanent home is for sale at a ridiculous price and they know it. My friends hadn't intended to put their home on the market until their neighbors put their house up for sale at an even more ridiculous price.

I imagine that there is a lot of this going on. My friends are in no hurry to sell and they won't sell unless they get the ridiculous price they're asking. Their plan is to live in whichever of the three houses doesn't sell.

Not a bad "problem" to have

[Travel2Much]

I know a family with 3 homes on the market--two investments and their current permanent home. Their permanent home is for sale at a ridiculous price and they know it. My friends hadn't intended to put their home on the market until their neighbors put their house up for sale at an even more ridiculous price.

I imagine that there is a lot of this going on. My friends are in no hurry to sell and they won't sell unless they get the ridiculous price they're asking. Their plan is to live in whichever of the three houses doesn't sell.

What's interesting is that this is quite irrational behavior. Buyers see the ridiculous price and are offended and back off, even if they were willing to pay market value. Other buyers see the "for sale" signs carpeting the landscape and back off. Still other buyers see that darn near every place in a development is up for sale and think, "well if this development sucks so bad that everyone is trying to unload their property I will back off". Still others see others backing off and back off.

The result is a severe constriction of demand due to attempted market manipulation, and escalating supply.

Interesting collective action problem.

[Just_In_Thyme]

For those of us that bought several years (or longer) ago and have no intention of selling, there is nothing really to worry about. Even if I chose to sell and had to reduce the price on my house by 25%-35% I would still have done quite well on my investment. The only people that have to worry about a "soft market" are those who bought recently expecting to make a quick buck. After those people have all been shaken out of the market I imagine things will stabillize again.

[Camp Creek Kid]

What's interesting is that this is quite irrational behavior. Buyers see the ridiculous price and are offended and back off, even if they were willing to pay market value. Other buyers see the "for sale" signs carpeting the landscape and back off. Still other buyers see that darn near every place in a development is up for sale and think, "well if this development sucks so bad that everyone is trying to unload their property I will back off". Still others see others backing off and back off.

The result is a severe constriction of demand due to attempted market manipulation, and escalating supply.

Interesting collective action problem.

Rosemary Beach has 43 homes on the market with only 4 homes pending. Your analysis is very good and describes the situation there exactly. Last year the demand at Rosemary was so high that homes would sell in days not months. Properties are just sitting now. Of course, I could think of many more things to do with my spare $7,000,000 than buy gulf front at Rosemary (no matter how great the house).

Maybe, for the "greater good," everyone needs to lower their prices a couple hundred thousand dollars!

[TooFarTampa]

Kurt,

The scary part of the housing issue is not related simply to SoWal. I am more worried about the bigger housing market in the US and SoWal is just a small piece of the bigger picture.

Agree with you skier. Announcement comes today that the yuan is no longer artificially tied to the dollar. The import of cheap Chinese goods has helped prop up our economy. A rise in the yuan value (which I guess is expected) will change that. I'm thinking that whatever the "reality" of our economy is will begin to dawn on us in the next couple of years, and there may be a large correction in many things. I expect taxes will go up, which means people with lots of cash flow may not have as much to invest in real estate. There are other positive factors that may come into play, especially for the SoWal area, but it is wise to be cautious.

Now is not the time to overextend (ie spend $800K on a house in Freeport with grass on the roof ) but from the quality of the discussions here, it doesn't sound like the people on this board have much to worry about!

[kurt]

I know a family with 3 homes on the market--two investments and their current permanent home. Their permanent home is for sale at a ridiculous price and they know it. My friends hadn't intended to put their home on the market until their neighbors put their house up for sale at an even more ridiculous price.

I imagine that there is a lot of this going on. My friends are in no hurry to sell and they won't sell unless they get the ridiculous price they're asking. Their plan is to live in whichever of the three houses doesn't sell.

That's been going on around here for a long time.

[Miss Kitty]

Agree with you skier. Announcement comes today that the yuan is no longer artificially tied to the dollar. The import of cheap Chinese goods has helped prop up our economy. A rise in the yuan value (which I guess is expected) will change that. I'm thinking that whatever the "reality" of our economy is will begin to dawn on us in the next couple of years, and there may be a large correction in many things. I expect taxes will go up, which means people with lots of cash flow may not have as much to invest in real estate. There are other positive factors that may come into play, especially for the SoWal area, but it is wise to be cautious.

Now is not the time to overextend (ie spend $800K on a house in Freeport with grass on the roof ) but from the quality of the discussions here, it doesn't sound like the people on this board have much to worry about!

I like the last part of your response! The only worry I have is when can I get down there again! Looks like it will be October (sound of violins swells in the background here) for us...we were coming down August 7, but just found out our name came up for a new sheltie puppy this weekend!!!! If all goes well, she will join us in the fall. Now where is that Dog Permit link??? Happy Happy Joy Joy

[Kim Smith]

Sueshore,

We have a sheltie and she absolutely loves the beach. She sits on our front porch, and just takes it all in. When it is time to come back home we have to physically pick her up and put her in the car, she is not ready. Now all we have to say is are you ready to go to the beach and she is at our back door, waiting to get in the car. They are wonderful dogs and she is truely our beach dog.

[Travel2Much]

... Announcement comes today that the yuan is no longer artificially tied to the dollar. The import of cheap Chinese goods has helped prop up our economy. A rise in the yuan value (which I guess is expected) will change that. ...

Not an expert here, but I would imagine that the Fed and the US govt. are ecstatic about this move. The concern has always been that having the yuan pegged to the dollar created an inflation risk in the PRC, caused the PRC to hoard dollars, and created an artificial advantage for the PRC in trade (leading to the severe trade deficit between the PRC and the US).

Relation to Walton County justifying this reponse: and that's how the Chinese government helped skier sell his overpriced house!

[TooFarTampa]

Not an expert here, but I would imagine that the Fed and the US govt. are ecstatic about this move. The concern has always been that having the yuan pegged to the dollar created an inflation risk in the PRC, caused the PRC to hoard dollars, and created an artificial advantage for the PRC in trade (leading to the severe trade deficit between the PRC and the US).

Relation to Walton County justifying this reponse: and that's how the Chinese government helped skier sell his overpriced house!

LOL ok now my head hurts. I'm no expert either Travel2Much. My gut reaction is that since everything is made in China these days, if the price of their goods go up everything gets more expensive at Wal-Mart. But you may be right, maybe Greenspan is happy.

Maybe we should stick to talking about dogs romping on the beach and $7 million gulf front beach houses in Rosemary, which is a lot more fun!! Wish I was a dog romping in Rosemary right now.

[CJ]

I am no financial analyst but my great grandmother always said "anything is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for it; no more, no less"

At the end of the day, this place is fabulous and the more people find it the higher the demand will be. Paradise is never a bad investment at any price!

[beachmouse]

Sueshore, I actually think October is the best time of year here anyways. Still warm enough for going to the beach, but not so warm you sweat through clothing if you have to be outside for 5 minutes at 8:30 am. Very pleasant if you want to golf, walk, play tennis, or bike. Peak of hurricane season has passed. And way less crowded than it would be in August.

[kurt]

October is the best. May is great but in October the Water is warm.


Just saw this on some houses I shot.

http://www.emeraldcoasttours.com/52mysticcobalt - 2,670 sf watercolor gulf view reduced from 3.3m to 2.475m

http://www.emeraldcoasttours.com/143buttercupstreet - 2,760 sf watercolor - no gulf view - $2.65 m

[Buckhead Rick]

We were down last week also (we did love the week after Dennis, we never got into so many great restaurants so easily) I did talk with the builder of a home 70% done on the park in Watercolor, he said the owner just turned down $5.5million for the home "as is". He said he'd sell for more when completed or live in it. Not a bad choice to make. Also I do not think it was a flipper offering the $5.5MM. As someone said above great location will hold value. I talked with a Citibank officer today along with a client and he said many of his clients were listing properties to "capture" gain, but he also said he saw the same thing 5 years ago at MUCH lower prices.
Good luck to everyone, both the buyers and sellers, I'm keeping mine.

[Travel2Much]

LOL ...

Maybe we should stick to talking about dogs romping on the beach and $7 million gulf front beach houses in Rosemary, which is a lot more fun!! Wish I was a dog romping in Rosemary right now.

Ain't that the truth. I am going to ride over to RB and enjoy myself, the sunny evening, and my investment. I'll romp a bit in the grass for you.

[lollygal]

Ain't that the truth. I am going to ride over to RB and enjoy myself, the sunny evening, and my investment. I'll romp a bit in the grass for you.

Well said -- Enjoy your evening!!

[TooFarTampa]

Ain't that the truth. I am going to ride over to RB and enjoy myself, the sunny evening, and my investment. I'll romp a bit in the grass for you.

Stop by the Sugar Shack too, will ya? Enjoy!!

[kurt]

Stop by the Sugar Shack too, will ya? Enjoy!!

Uh oh! Have you just revealed your location?

[Miss Kitty]

LOL ok now my head hurts. I'm no expert either Travel2Much. My gut reaction is that since everything is made in China these days, if the price of their goods go up everything gets more expensive at Wal-Mart. But you may be right, maybe Greenspan is happy.

Maybe we should stick to talking about dogs romping on the beach and $7 million gulf front beach houses in Rosemary, which is a lot more fun!! Wish I was a dog romping in Rosemary right now.

Okay...now my stomach hurts, from too much laughing!!! Maybe the economics lessons can go to the lounge! I plead guilty for going off topic with my puppy news, but TooFarTampa is correct...dogs romping on the beach is SoWal at it's best!!!!

[Miss Kitty]

Sueshore,

We have a sheltie and she absolutely loves the beach. She sits on our front porch, and just takes it all in. When it is time to come back home we have to physically pick her up and put her in the car, she is not ready. Now all we have to say is are you ready to go to the beach and she is at our back door, waiting to get in the car. They are wonderful dogs and she is truely our beach dog.

This will drive the economists crazy but, thanks for the great story about your sheltie! It made me smile. Our first sheltie, Missy, only got to be at the beach twice before she died in Feb. of 2004. Her first time on the beach was at Thanksgiving '02 and she LOVED it. It has taken us 18 months to be ready for another fur ball and we can hardly wait. The sweetest thing is my 20 year old son is so happy she is coming before he goes back to school. There's just something about a man that loves dogs! And I must agree...October is a great time for SoWal...I stayed for three weeks last year! It was my first year for the empty nest and NO, I didn't suffer!

[TooFarTampa]

Uh oh! Have you just revealed your location?

Uh, yes Kurt. I'm in Tampa.

Just thought ice cream sounded good. That's where I would go if I got to Travel2Much like T2M.

[kurt]

Uh, yes Kurt. I'm in Tampa.

Just thought ice cream sounded good. That's where I would go if I got to Travel2Much like T2M.

:oops: I thought you meant to stop by the rental house "Sugar Shack" where you were hangin' out.

[TooFarTampa]

:oops: I thought you meant to stop by the rental house "Sugar Shack" where you were hangin' out.

You need to leave Grayton once in awhile and head east!

[Travel2Much]

...

Just thought ice cream sounded good. That's where I would go if I got to Travel2Much like T2M.

No Sugar Shack tonite, sorry. To report in, the beach at RB was quite fine tonite, sorry dunes aside. Some human urchins were ruining the dunes with Dad's permission until someone pointed out how gauche that was. That restaurant (Onano?) was filling up and given that it is a cool summer evening looked idyllic. It's a fine thing to walk your bike through such a neat downtown. The lawns were beautiful and when I passed upon them I said "romp, romp, romp". But, I think some show is on for twilight, as blankets were beginning to be laid about. Magical. Seven mil for gulf front? No problemo...

[kurt]

You need to leave Grayton once in awhile and head east!

I was at RB this AM. I am all over SoWal like yellow flies on a big black sticky ball hanging from a sand pine. http://www.sowal.com/photos.html

I did catch the moon rise at Grayton again this evening though.

[dusty]

What is the rate of homes selling in the area for the last 5 years? Wasn't last year more of the anomaly than this year?

[Smiling JOe]

Just trying to report what I saw and nothing else and get others perspectives. ... That's all I am trying to discuss in a fair and honest way....

Skier,
This is a good topic and I am interested in reading opinions. However, everyone here knows that many listings are like your very own, which is an overpriced property that you will sell only if someone is willing to pay you more than it is worth. You do not care if you sell, yet you add to the number of listings just sitting on the market, and help soften it. It is a free world and you are welcome to do whatever you please within the laws of the land, but don't continue with your horse caca.

With that said, sure there are overpriced properties dropping in price, and sales have slowed. Frankly, I am glad to see some prices are rounding back to what should be the listing price. I bet you are a lawyer trying to piss off people all day, and I don't think you really give a crap about the market. You are just trying to stir the pot.

[dusty]

Philip,

I get the list of properties directly from Arvida sales (it only includes listings by Arvida and not other realtors) and it includes about 120 properties--land, condos and homes. The rest I got by going to Destin Properties website and counting those listed by other agents. Its at least 180. Not sure why the MLS you were looking at had so few of the total listings. In terms of total units, there will eventually be about 1k, but Arvida still has a lot of unsold lots in phase IV and many lots it still owns in Phase III. So, in terms of non-Arvida owned units, the inventory is in the range of 20-25%.

Are all the Arvida units on the market or are some of them in controlled releases?

How is Watersound selling? The last press release I saw showed a surplus of buyers for Watersound Beach/Watersound Beach West.

[Smiling JOe]

What's interesting is that this is quite irrational behavior. Buyers see the ridiculous price and are offended and back off, even if they were willing to pay market value. Other buyers see the "for sale" signs carpeting the landscape and back off. Still other buyers see that darn near every place in a development is up for sale and think, "well if this development sucks so bad that everyone is trying to unload their property I will back off". Still others see others backing off and back off.

The result is a severe constriction of demand due to attempted market manipulation, and escalating supply.

Interesting collective action problem.

Thanks, I've been so busy shouting at Skier that I may have forgot to say what you said so well.

[Smiling JOe]

Sueshore, I actually think October is the best time of year here anyways. Still warm enough for going to the beach, but not so warm you sweat through clothing if you have to be outside for 5 minutes at 8:30 am. Very pleasant if you want to golf, walk, play tennis, or bike. Peak of hurricane season has passed. And way less crowded than it would be in August.

If you and Kurt don't stop telling people these lies about October being a good month to visit the beach, I may have to break out a jar of whoop-a_s. October is the worst month ever and everyone should plan around the month of October for beach travels. The yellow flies are the worst from Oct 1 - Halloween. Sharks eat a lot in October. Rip Currents are definitely worst in October. All the restaurants close for a vacation in October. Peak of Hurricane season is October. Should I continue? Yes, if you want to have the worst beach vacation, come in October.