Our family has been searching for property along 30A for nearly one tear now. Back in April/May, it appeared that we had "missed the boat" as our desires were in one of the planned communities (Watercolor, Watersound, Alys Beach etc) and these areas had realized substantially jumps in values since our search began. So I decided to track prices as I anticipated some froth was coming into the market.
The way I did this was to print out available lot listings for Watercolor and Watersound that appealled to me. I first did this on 5/10/05. At this time, I only did a select number as I didn't expect my results to be dramatic. I then went back On July 26, 2005 and printed out all listings for the two properties and once again I did the same test yesterday September 15, 2005.
Since there has been so much talk about statistical sampling on this board, I decided to include the entire population for these two communities. I do realize that this only is a test of listing price and does not fully reflect the market as sales are not included and I recognize that sales are the key element here. However this was easier for me and I thought it would provide some interesting reading.
In the first test, I included the sampling of lots I chose in May 2005 that had price changes more than once between May and September. Out of 50 lots chosen for sale (out of an estmated 170 during May 2005 in those communities), 19 had multiple price changes - ALL DOWN! The average lisitng price on 5/10/05 for these 19 lots was $1,800,631. On September 15, 2005, the average for the same lots had dropped to $1,376,579 - this is a drop of 23.6%
I then took the test one step further - I compared the MLS listing for the 2 communties for July 26 versus September 15 - here are some results.....
Watercolor :
Listings - July 26 - 93 Lots Sept 15 - 105 lots
# of lots out of the 93 listed in July with price changes during the seven week period = 37 or 40%
Average price of these 37 lots on July 26 = $902,500
Average listing price on Sept 15 of same lots = $799,500
Average drop in listing price = 11.4%
The same info is available for Watersound - but I will save that for another day if this info is useful. I provide this info not as a negative aspect of the market as I feel Sowal is the most beautiful place in the US, however as useful info to ppl out there like me who if prices kept increasing would never have had a chance to call this area a home (albeit a 2nd one).
The way I did this was to print out available lot listings for Watercolor and Watersound that appealled to me. I first did this on 5/10/05. At this time, I only did a select number as I didn't expect my results to be dramatic. I then went back On July 26, 2005 and printed out all listings for the two properties and once again I did the same test yesterday September 15, 2005.
Since there has been so much talk about statistical sampling on this board, I decided to include the entire population for these two communities. I do realize that this only is a test of listing price and does not fully reflect the market as sales are not included and I recognize that sales are the key element here. However this was easier for me and I thought it would provide some interesting reading.
In the first test, I included the sampling of lots I chose in May 2005 that had price changes more than once between May and September. Out of 50 lots chosen for sale (out of an estmated 170 during May 2005 in those communities), 19 had multiple price changes - ALL DOWN! The average lisitng price on 5/10/05 for these 19 lots was $1,800,631. On September 15, 2005, the average for the same lots had dropped to $1,376,579 - this is a drop of 23.6%
I then took the test one step further - I compared the MLS listing for the 2 communties for July 26 versus September 15 - here are some results.....
Watercolor :
Listings - July 26 - 93 Lots Sept 15 - 105 lots
# of lots out of the 93 listed in July with price changes during the seven week period = 37 or 40%
Average price of these 37 lots on July 26 = $902,500
Average listing price on Sept 15 of same lots = $799,500
Average drop in listing price = 11.4%
The same info is available for Watersound - but I will save that for another day if this info is useful. I provide this info not as a negative aspect of the market as I feel Sowal is the most beautiful place in the US, however as useful info to ppl out there like me who if prices kept increasing would never have had a chance to call this area a home (albeit a 2nd one).