Current inventory and sales forecast - December 2007

[JoshMclean]

Thread edited by Kurt to reflect discussion.

Josh's listing here - [ame="http://www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=18033"]2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach - SoWal Beaches Forum[/ame]

Please keep in mind that on threads for property for sale we try to be respectful and help people sell property. If you have general comments about the market or other things, please start new threads.

Thanks!

 

[Beaudroix]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

where is the magic "bottom of the market"???

 

[JoshMclean]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

The magic bottom? I think we're very close. I was looking at the stats from Destin-Inlet Beach at the end of November. We have 3 less sales this year than 2006 with all of December left. Our months of inventory was also down compared to last year. Things are looking up. I think we'll see a larger increase in sales next year!

 

[SHELLY]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

The magic bottom? I think we're very close. I was looking at the stats from Destin-Inlet Beach at the end of November. We have 3 less sales this year than 2006 with all of December left. Our months of inventory was also down compared to last year. Things are looking up. I think we'll see a larger increase in sales next year!

Josh,

What type of economic scenario do you envision to support your thesis that sales will improve next year?

.

 

[JoshMclean]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

Josh,

What type of economic scenario do you envision to support your thesis that sales will improve next year?

.

Shelly,
We've had a few more sales each month than in 2006. I personally am having much more activity with buyers now than even in the summer. It could be a personal increase, but I have talked to many Realtors that are seeing the same thing.
Houses are now becoming affordable to buyers who have been watching eagerly for 2+ years now. I met a gentleman the other day who came down to look at property (from Atlanta) and said that he was "shocked to see this many good deals available already."
I'm not saying that price decreases won't continue into next year. I think several areas are still overpriced, but I believe sales will rise overall. There are a lot of GREAT deals out there at this time. If you would have told people 3 years ago that they'd soon be buying properties under $150/ft they would have called you crazy! I know several properties that you couldn't reproduce for the sales price. I think you have to be near the bottom when that's happening.
I don't see another boom by any means, but I think we will see increases in sales for the next several years to come and increasing prices soon enough. All of this is my personal opinion from studying the market Shelly.

 

[GTSViper]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

Shelly,
Unless I am confused. 2007 HOMES sales figures were already within 3 sales of 2006 with a month to go. Based on the numbers, we should see another 35 + - sales in December. This will put the area up approximately 5% over last year. Since the market trended downward for two years. Now with a move upward, all would only assume there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Please keep in mind this does not include the horrible condo market which I think you may see in a slump for a while longer.
Sorry, I am not Josh but this is my 2 cents worth. That and 298,999.98 will buy this house he has listed.

 

[JoshMclean]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

Let me elaborate a little further on my thoughts Shelly. I completely understand your thoughts on the local/national housing slump dragging on under current economic circumstances. This is a very strong second home market as you know. People will continue to buy what they perceive to be good deals to use as vacation homes. People from Nashville,Atlanta,Birmingham, etc... will continue purchasing homes here for personal use despite overall economic conditions IMO. Most buyers are not like Capricious for example. I know many people from Nashville (my home town) who are ready to jump in early next year so that their families have a place to vaction in the summer. I can assure you that most Realtors have their fair share of buyers salivating over this market right now. I think that's a big difference from what I saw at the end of 2006.

 

[30A Skunkape]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

I am no realtor or economist, but does it really matter if there were a few more sales this year relative to last considering the much larger increase in inventory? The last stats I saw showed inventory way up versus last year, days on market up, asking price about the same, sales prices lower (that is off memory, I might be remembering this incorrectly). Am I incorrect?

 

[SHELLY]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

Shelly,
If you would have told people 3 years ago that they'd soon be buying properties under $150/ft they would have called you crazy!

I know.


.

 

[scooterbug44]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

Realtor says "it's a good time to buy", Shelley thinks the economy is tanking, must be a day that ends in "y" ;-).