Current inventory and sales forecast - December 2007

[GTSViper]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

These are housing figures ONLY.
Inventory level for Nov. 2006 was 2402 vs Nov. 2007 2441which is about 2% increase in inventory.
Sales are up approx. 5% vs 2006.
2006 inventory vs sales was 71 months of inventory.
2007 inventory vs sales was 66 months of inventory. Down approx. 8%
I watch this very closely as I own a lot of property here. Still not Good but I am happy the bleeding is slowing down and showing some signs of upward trend.
The numbers are showing a SLIGHT turn.

 

[JoshMclean]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

I am no realtor or economist, but does it really matter if there were a few more sales this year relative to last considering the much larger increase in inventory? The last stats I saw showed inventory way up versus last year, days on market up, asking price about the same, sales prices lower (that is off memory, I might be remembering this incorrectly). Am I incorrect?

I find it important that sales are going up instead of down. I think that more sales is important regardless of inventory levels.

 

[JoshMclean]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

I know.


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I wasn't here during that time, but I know you were bashed on your views of the market back then. What are your thoughts on the future of this market?

 

[Capricious]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

"...I can assure you that most Realtors have their fair share of buyers salivating over this market right now. I think that's a big difference from what I saw at the end of 2006..."




Maybe Norman can finally unload all those properties.

 

[JoshMclean]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

Maybe one day you'll be able to afford one.

 

[SHELLY]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

What are your thoughts on the future of this market?

I think folks who believe it will bounce back in Spring will be disappointed--especially those who have never gotten their brain around the real reasons it took off in the first place.


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[sberry123]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

These are housing figures ONLY.
Inventory level for Nov. 2006 was 2402 vs Nov. 2007 2441which is about 2% increase in inventory.
Sales are up approx. 5% vs 2006.
2006 inventory vs sales was 71 months of inventory.
2007 inventory vs sales was 66 months of inventory. Down approx. 8%
I watch this very closely as I own a lot of property here. Still not Good but I am happy the bleeding is slowing down and showing some signs of upward trend.
The numbers are showing a SLIGHT turn.

2007 inventory vs sales was 66 months of inventory

5 1/2 years? So, if no one adds any houses to the market it will take 5 1/2 years to burn through this inventory. Please let me know if I am understanding this correctly.

 

[SHELLY]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

2007 inventory vs sales was 66 months of inventory

5 1/2 years? So, if no one adds any houses to the market it will take 5 1/2 years to burn through this inventory. Please let me know if I am understanding this correctly.

Yes...that's the upward trend.

But I believe we'll be seeing a big jump in inventory in the coming year. Inventory has held steady is a result of people pulling their homes off the market to (1) attempt to rent them in order to generate some kind of cashflow; (2) put them up for auction; or (3) take a break during the holidays and relist them for the big 2008 "Spring bounce." (And a few have fallen into foreclosure.)

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[Joe Mammy]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

I pretty much agree with what Shelley said above. We will see a spike in inventory early 2008. Plus 2008 will be known as the "year of foreclosure" unless congress saves the subprime loans from ballooning:

"Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, seeking to limit damage from a subprime-mortgage crisis that threatens to end the U.S. economic expansion, said he's confident the government and banks will agree on a plan this week.
Paulson is negotiating a deal among banks, mortgage servicers and securities-industry lobbyists to fix some subprime mortgage rates before they reset higher and trigger a wave of defaults. The Treasury chief also proposed letting state and local governments temporarily exempt taxes on bonds issued to help refinance subprime borrowers."

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071204/BUSINESS04/712040391/1002/BUSINESS

 

[30A Skunkape]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

Josh-I don't understand why people would want to buy one of these houses for vacation purposes and assume all the hassles of ownership when they can live like kings in a rental for a few thousand dollars two weeks every year. I can't imagine it is easy to sell people on the idea that these properties are good investments since their current prices are obviously inflated higher than what the market will allow. I don't have access to the data you guys have, I am just looking at the vacant houses on my street with weeds growing up around them while smoke alarms chirp inside because the batteries are dying. We will just have to see, but I bet things will be pretty slow for awhile.