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Camp Creek Kid said:
I know a family with 3 homes on the market--two investments and their current permanent home. Their permanent home is for sale at a ridiculous price and they know it. My friends hadn't intended to put their home on the market until their neighbors put their house up for sale at an even more ridiculous price.

I imagine that there is a lot of this going on. My friends are in no hurry to sell and they won't sell unless they get the ridiculous price they're asking. Their plan is to live in whichever of the three houses doesn't sell.

Not a bad "problem" to have :cool:
 

Travel2Much

Beach Lover
Jun 13, 2005
159
0
Camp Creek Kid said:
I know a family with 3 homes on the market--two investments and their current permanent home. Their permanent home is for sale at a ridiculous price and they know it. My friends hadn't intended to put their home on the market until their neighbors put their house up for sale at an even more ridiculous price.

I imagine that there is a lot of this going on. My friends are in no hurry to sell and they won't sell unless they get the ridiculous price they're asking. Their plan is to live in whichever of the three houses doesn't sell.

What's interesting is that this is quite irrational behavior. Buyers see the ridiculous price and are offended and back off, even if they were willing to pay market value. Other buyers see the "for sale" signs carpeting the landscape and back off. Still other buyers see that darn near every place in a development is up for sale and think, "well if this development sucks so bad that everyone is trying to unload their property I will back off". Still others see others backing off and back off.

The result is a severe constriction of demand due to attempted market manipulation, and escalating supply.

Interesting collective action problem.
 
For those of us that bought several years (or longer) ago and have no intention of selling, there is nothing really to worry about. Even if I chose to sell and had to reduce the price on my house by 25%-35% I would still have done quite well on my investment. The only people that have to worry about a "soft market" are those who bought recently expecting to make a quick buck. After those people have all been shaken out of the market I imagine things will stabillize again.
 

Camp Creek Kid

Christini Zambini
Feb 20, 2005
1,278
124
52
Seacrest Beach
Travel2Much said:
What's interesting is that this is quite irrational behavior. Buyers see the ridiculous price and are offended and back off, even if they were willing to pay market value. Other buyers see the "for sale" signs carpeting the landscape and back off. Still other buyers see that darn near every place in a development is up for sale and think, "well if this development sucks so bad that everyone is trying to unload their property I will back off". Still others see others backing off and back off.

The result is a severe constriction of demand due to attempted market manipulation, and escalating supply.

Interesting collective action problem.

Rosemary Beach has 43 homes on the market with only 4 homes pending. Your analysis is very good and describes the situation there exactly. Last year the demand at Rosemary was so high that homes would sell in days not months. Properties are just sitting now. Of course, I could think of many more things to do with my spare $7,000,000 than buy gulf front at Rosemary (no matter how great the house). :D

Maybe, for the "greater good," everyone needs to lower their prices a couple hundred thousand dollars!
 

TooFarTampa

SoWal Insider
skier said:
Kurt,

The scary part of the housing issue is not related simply to SoWal. I am more worried about the bigger housing market in the US and SoWal is just a small piece of the bigger picture.


Agree with you skier. Announcement comes today that the yuan is no longer artificially tied to the dollar. The import of cheap Chinese goods has helped prop up our economy. A rise in the yuan value (which I guess is expected) will change that. I'm thinking that whatever the "reality" of our economy is will begin to dawn on us in the next couple of years, and there may be a large correction in many things. I expect taxes will go up, which means people with lots of cash flow may not have as much to invest in real estate. There are other positive factors that may come into play, especially for the SoWal area, but it is wise to be cautious.

Now is not the time to overextend (ie spend $800K on a house in Freeport with grass on the roof :D ) but from the quality of the discussions here, it doesn't sound like the people on this board have much to worry about!
 

Kurt

Admin
Staff member
Oct 15, 2004
2,233
4,925
SoWal
mooncreek.com
Camp Creek Kid said:
I know a family with 3 homes on the market--two investments and their current permanent home. Their permanent home is for sale at a ridiculous price and they know it. My friends hadn't intended to put their home on the market until their neighbors put their house up for sale at an even more ridiculous price.

I imagine that there is a lot of this going on. My friends are in no hurry to sell and they won't sell unless they get the ridiculous price they're asking. Their plan is to live in whichever of the three houses doesn't sell.

That's been going on around here for a long time.
 

Miss Kitty

Meow
Jun 10, 2005
47,017
1,131
69
TooFarTampa said:
Agree with you skier. Announcement comes today that the yuan is no longer artificially tied to the dollar. The import of cheap Chinese goods has helped prop up our economy. A rise in the yuan value (which I guess is expected) will change that. I'm thinking that whatever the "reality" of our economy is will begin to dawn on us in the next couple of years, and there may be a large correction in many things. I expect taxes will go up, which means people with lots of cash flow may not have as much to invest in real estate. There are other positive factors that may come into play, especially for the SoWal area, but it is wise to be cautious.

Now is not the time to overextend (ie spend $800K on a house in Freeport with grass on the roof :D ) but from the quality of the discussions here, it doesn't sound like the people on this board have much to worry about!


I like the last part of your response! The only worry I have is when can I get down there again! Looks like it will be October (sound of violins swells in the background here) for us...we were coming down August 7, but just found out our name came up for a new sheltie puppy this weekend!!!! If all goes well, she will join us in the fall. Now where is that Dog Permit link??? Happy Happy Joy Joy
 

Kim Smith

Beach Lover
Nov 16, 2004
71
3
Sueshore,

We have a sheltie and she absolutely loves the beach. She sits on our front porch, and just takes it all in. When it is time to come back home we have to physically pick her up and put her in the car, she is not ready. Now all we have to say is are you ready to go to the beach and she is at our back door, waiting to get in the car. They are wonderful dogs and she is truely our beach dog.
 

Travel2Much

Beach Lover
Jun 13, 2005
159
0
TooFarTampa said:
... Announcement comes today that the yuan is no longer artificially tied to the dollar. The import of cheap Chinese goods has helped prop up our economy. A rise in the yuan value (which I guess is expected) will change that. ...

Not an expert here, but I would imagine that the Fed and the US govt. are ecstatic about this move. The concern has always been that having the yuan pegged to the dollar created an inflation risk in the PRC, caused the PRC to hoard dollars, and created an artificial advantage for the PRC in trade (leading to the severe trade deficit between the PRC and the US).

Relation to Walton County justifying this reponse: and that's how the Chinese government helped skier sell his overpriced house!
 

TooFarTampa

SoWal Insider
Travel2Much said:
Not an expert here, but I would imagine that the Fed and the US govt. are ecstatic about this move. The concern has always been that having the yuan pegged to the dollar created an inflation risk in the PRC, caused the PRC to hoard dollars, and created an artificial advantage for the PRC in trade (leading to the severe trade deficit between the PRC and the US).

Relation to Walton County justifying this reponse: and that's how the Chinese government helped skier sell his overpriced house!

LOL ok now my head hurts. I'm no expert either Travel2Much. My gut reaction is that since everything is made in China these days, if the price of their goods go up everything gets more expensive at Wal-Mart. But you may be right, maybe Greenspan is happy. :dunno:

Maybe we should stick to talking about dogs romping on the beach and $7 million gulf front beach houses in Rosemary, which is a lot more fun!! Wish I was a dog romping in Rosemary right now. :lol:
 
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