Let's all encourage SKIER to lighten up!!!

[George]

I have been carefully following this message board over the past few weeks, particularly during Hurricane Dennis. Kurt and the others who maintain this site should be applauded for doing a great job and a great service.

I find all of the speculation over the bubble to be a bit ridiculous and overblown. I am not a real estate expert, nor am I an expert on financial matters. However, I do have some common sense.

I agree with those who have written that much of the current over supply in the 30-A area is driven by property owners who are not motivated to sell but rather are listing simply to troll the waters to land a huge price. In the past, sellers could get away with this and buyers were lured into this market on the hope of a similar result. After constant talk about a bubble in the national media and on this message board, 2 hurricanes, several tropical storms and 2 shark attacks in, property owners are finding that real estate markets really are rational (i.e. supply and demand will find an equilibrium point that is rational in light of real life events and other economic factors).

The sellers who continue to list at irrational prices are causing would be buyers to be turned off and to go elsewhere because they don't know what to make of the market. All of the national financial publications talk about bubbles, particularly in Florida, and the irrational selling (not buying) practices are fueling prospective buyers' concerns over a bubble. I have friends who don't even consider 30-A (even though the love it) because they assume they can't afford it and they don't think of themselves as professional real estate investors.

I think the real estate professionals in the market also need to take some responsiblity for making sure the real estate market along 30-A remains strong over the long term (which is in everyone's best interests). It seems that it has become popular in the area for real estate agents to refer to property owners as "investors" and to homes as "investments." What happened to "clients," "families" and "beach houses?" The real estate agents could do well for all of us by encouraging clients to set a realistic price for their property and to cut down on the successive flipping that occurs before an end user ever enters the picture. Over the long term, everyone will benefit by a stable market more so than the type of house of cards market that has developed in other areas.

To be fair, I have owned several properties in WaterColor and still own one. Have I benefited from the market successes? -- Yes. Am I concerned about the market? -- No. Why? Because we decided never to buy any property that we are not comfortable owning for the foreseeable future.

The long and short of it is that everyone should stay focused on reality. Enjoy what property you do own and sell what property you want to sell. If you make a 20% return on your property (which probably results in about a 50% return on the investment you made (i.e. payments to the bank)), then sell and take your money off the table. If you are a prospective buyer, don't purchase anything you can't afford to own. Ultimately, I think this real estate market will become rational and everyone will benefit from this in the long term.

 

[skier]

Has anyone else notice that many of SKIERS posts are negative or actually misleading? Like the following...

- Shades is closing <misleading>
- Biting Flies <negative>
- Alys Beach not being to his liking <negative>
- Let the bidding begin <negative, misleading>
- Prices dropping in Watercolor <negative, misleading>
- Where did the sand go <negative>
- Question for you property flippers <negative, misleading>
- Bubble Bursting <negative, misleading>
- State of beaches after arlene <negative>
- Nervous Property Owners <negative, misleading>
- Back from vacation market looks soft <negative, misleading>
- Interesting Data About the Bubble <negative, misleading>

The only neutral or positive posts are

- Cheap window blinds at home depot....but it took him a few tries to get the order right
- where to jetski
- Cheap adirondack chairs and tables....but he is already watching for mildewing or splitting.

I would like to encourage SKIER to lighten up and enjoy life. Try to look for the positives. Next time you eat at a nice restaurant on 30-A...take the time to post a positive experience on this board. If you watch a wonderful sunset like last night....take a picture and post it. I think most of us here on this message board and this part of Florida were drawn here because of the beauty of the area and the friendliness of the people. Not because we "daytrade real estate."

Let's all chime in and encourage "our fellow message board poster SKIER" to try to be a bit more positive.

Doug

Guys and gals--

My OPINIONS on the real estate market are just that--OPINIONS. Has nothing to do with being pessimistic. I call them as I see them, not as YOU see them. I simply have a difference of opinion than most of you on this board on the direction of prices for real estate--in the South Walton market and other overheated markets around the country. I am certainly not alone in my opinion (which is not based on any real estate experience or high economic theory). It is also the opinion of many, many economists. I/they might be wrong, just like you might be wrong that the market is still very sound.

In terms of my other posts, a waitress at Shades confirmed that the restaurant in Seaside will be replaces by condos/retail. Maybe she was wrong, but I don't think so based on the recent drawings posted on this site regarding Seaside's long range plan. This is not pessimistic--just a fact that long time patrons might want to know about. Biting flies--my experience with the flies was spring 2004, I simply wanted to know if that experience was normal. Fortunately, this year we saw only a fraction of the biting flies we did last year. In terms of my question on the sand, like many non natives, I was asking the long termers where all the sand went and how it will get renourished over time. My posts about furniture and shades hopefully helped someone find a quality/low price product. HOW you construe that as negative is beyond me.

This is a forum for discussion. Do you think it's fair for a new visitor thinking of buying to only see discussions about how prices go up 20, 30 or 40 percent a year? OR, does a balanced discussion of varying opinions about the market help that person make a wise and educated decision. They certainly won't get balance from most agents who are simply looking to score the next commission. You guys sound like we should always talk about living in lala land where property values escalate at a compound average growth rate of 20% or more.

This place is wonderful. If I sell my home, I will continue to visit Rosemary, Seaside, Blue Mountain and Watercolor often as a renter. If prices stay high as many of you feel they will, I will probably not reinvest. But, if prices fall further, as I feel they will, I'll probably buy again sometime in the future. If I don't sell, I will continue to enjoy my home.

AHHHH--breath deep everyone. It's not so bad to have honest discussions and discourse. That's what this country is all about. You critics should lighten up, have some fun, disagree a little, think a little, learn a little......

 

[Cavallino]

SKIER,

I think you missed the entire point of the thread...."that your posts seem relatively negative in general....no matter the topic."

There is no need to defend yourself...just relax and maybe the next time you find something positive about the area, you might post your experience.

Come on....I know there is something great you can share....something you really enjoy about the Beaches of South Walton. Look deep there has to be something there!!! :laughing1

Doug

 

[Travel2Much]

skier, what I do not get is that you just acknowledged that you have no experience in real estate and/or economic theory. Your prior posts evidence that also, plainly.

Help me out, here: if that is the case, then, why are you confidently predicting trends down to the last percentile point, gathering data like a squirrel gathers nuts, disagreeing with people right and left, and insulting people who raise contrary positions or who have contrary motivations?

BTW, this month's Money magazine has a good piece on this exact issue. They identify your strategy as having "low" probability of success and also have a blurb by a professional indicating his view that the vacation home market will continue its rise, due to many of the factors raised by the people who dissent from your perspective. Give it a read and report back to the class, maybe.

 

[skier]

I may be misunderstanding your post WetWilly, but Skier is at both ends of the spectrum. He says get out while you can, yet he states that he has his property on the market for a high price.

I never told anyone to get out while they can nor did I say I was definitely bailing.

 

[Miss Kitty]

Skier....you and everyone else is entitled to their opinion. I for one learn a lot from reading/hearing different views on subjects. I may be wrong, but my guess is many homeowners on this website bought in SoWal because they love the area and have and/or hope to make happy memories with their families and friends. We feel very fortunate to own...and we made our money the old fashioned way...HARD WORK! Making a huge profit was NOT our motivation in buying, although we sometimes wish we had gone for "broke" and bought a lot to hold until we were ready to build! That said, I look forward to the day when prices stabilize (what's that? like saying what's normal?). That way, families that truly love SoWal might have a chance to realize their dreams of owning a piece of paradise! BTW....did you ever answer my ?'s on the other thread? I'll go check! Have a great day! (Try not to check prices today!...they'll be there tomorrow!)

 

[Cil]

I think I'd be a bit defensive if someone began a thread with a detailed analysis of the tone of my posts, and an advisory for me to change my attitude.

SoWal is a gorgeous place. I enjoy Kurt's site for all of the information it provides, factual as well as conversational.

"Experts" have been predicting that Denver's artificially overblown real estate market will burst for some years now. (And we recently made Forbes' Most Overpriced City list.)
But as others have said, location is everything. There is only so much Gulf.
The real estate market is not the same thing as the stock market.
We put money down on a Watercolor lot two years ago, but had to back out.
It has been interesting watching the goings-on since then.

I suppose one person's negativity is another person's reality check.
Opinions are just that--opinions. I believe that diversity of thought makes for a more interesting discussion.

 

[Smiling JOe]

BTW, this month's Money magazine has a good piece on this exact issue. They identify your strategy as having "low" probability of success and also have a blurb by a professional indicating his view that the vacation home market will continue its rise, due to many of the factors raised by the people who dissent from your perspective. Give it a read and report back to the class, maybe.

Sounds like Skier has an assignment from, perhaps an economics professor?

 

[RiverOtter]

I would like to encourage SKIER to lighten up and enjoy life. Try to look for the positives. Next time you eat at a nice restaurant on 30-A...take the time to post a positive experience on this board. If you watch a wonderful sunset like last night....take a picture and post it. I think most of us here on this message board and this part of Florida were drawn here because of the beauty of the area and the friendliness of the people. Not because we "daytrade real estate."

Let's all chime in and encourage "our fellow message board poster SKIER" to try to be a bit more positive.

Doug

Maybe he needs some Gonja Weed :laughing1

 

[Smiling JOe]

I never told anyone to get out while they can nor did I say I was definitely bailing.

So there is no bubble and you took your house off the market? I think we know your answer so there is no need to reply.

...In fact, all the signs point to a nasty fall. Any historical runup in stocks, real estate, bonds, gold, silver, etc. like the current runup in real estate has ALWAYS historically ended in a crash. If you own property, but your life, net worth and living don't depend on these high prices, you will be fine. But, watch out if you're betting the farm.

Different Post by Skier:
I remember having these exact same conversations with the stock market Bulls in 1999. They were sure the model had changed forever and that the old ways of looking at the market were no longer valid. They laughed at me for putting my money in money market funds. they weren't laughing in 2000/2001. And, look at the market since the crash. It's basicaly been flat for 5 years.

Skier, you may not have used my words exactly, but in different posts, you mention that you "warned" your friends of the stock market bubble long before it arrived. Did your warning mean that they should get out or stay in? If your warning meant that they should get out, I think it is reasonable to suggest that you are warning people to get out of the real estate market because you are predicting a bubble, as in your quote above. You also post that you have your property listed at a ridiculusly high price, but that it may not be ridiculus because other neighbors have sold their property at high prices.

I did mention that for folks in the higher end communities "asking" prices will not be met and to sell, most will have to lower prices in the short term by 30% plus. Hope this helps explain my comments.

So, you know that your home is over-priced and will have to reduce it 30%+ in order to sell it?

Blah, blah,blah.

In summary Skier, I can easily see prices stabilizing and in many cases dropping back due to many factors, one being poeple like you listing your property 30%+ over the market price. I don't disagree with some of your statements about the some of the properties being over priced, people needing economics 101 classes, etc. My question to myself about you is that you seem to be a walking oxymoron (I dropped my dictionary).