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GreaterFool

Beach Comber
Jul 26, 2005
5
0
That was all the "data" we needed to gather - to make our decision to exit the market.

This is a guess, but I would be willing to wager that 85% (very rough guess I admit) of the people posting in this Real Estate Forum, have a vested interest in real estate; It is understandable therefore that this Skier poster is getting a lot of flak for his posts, b/c this board is decidely currently "invested" in South Walton, one way or the other. That said, it seems that Skier has posted a great deal of negative leaning posts on real estate market in South Walton, and unfortunately it appears to me that what seems almost like his wish, is just starting to come to fruition over the last 2 months or so. I can understand why people are so defensive towards his posts however, preferring that he "be happy" and visit the lounge. Perhaps it is they who should be happy and visit the lounge or the general info boards - as this board I think (perhaps incorrectly) was designed for exactly this kind of debate - which I must say is a natural debate given the incredible rise in valuations over the last 7 years, and in particular in 2003 until very early in 2005.

To me, this debate has taken on national attention, leading almost to a self fullfilling prophecy of sorts, as buyers begin to back away from hot markets, and speculators begin to exit. It is a huge game of psychology being played out. When you watch CNBC, they bring on experts everyday to debate the issue, but more and more, the "expert" representing the bull case in real estate, is someone like the president of the National Association of Realtors (again someone unlikely to spot a bubble, or EVER predict a decline in valuations - even though we all know that it has happenned again and again throughout history, from Florida's land boom/bust, Japan's 12 year straight line decline since 1993, and previous burstings in commercial and residential real estate too numerous to mention such as those that have taken place in NYC in the past couple decades)

I happen to agree with Skier completely (and have recently taken action a couple of months ago to get out - seems a bit odd that Skier is predicting gloom but does not sell, but perhaps he is so well heeled he doesn't care that valuations could back off to 2002 levels (i.e. down 85% from current, but up 120% from 1995)

However, I will concede at least to this heavily "invested" message board community that my decision to sell was a gut feel guess, and I can't be certain that valuations don't go higher for the next 10 years as boomers retire - if that transpires then I will have made a sizeable mistake although I feel it is hard to go wrong taking a 400% gain (actually much larger return on equity) in my case. If I had not recently sold my place in March at full asking price (by owner I should add (hopefully not to the horror of all the agents patrolling these boards)) I would be equally miffed at Skier's posts, and inclined to reply with the standard mantra - unique beautiful beach, height restrictions, PCB Airport, Boomer demographics etc etc etc.... in the hope that I could head off any impending dimunition in MY valuation... it's only human

Good luck if you're invested currently as I suspect the vast majority of those visiting this board are... I truly hope that the most bullish predictions come true for you, even though I won't be participating in any prospective runup from here.
 

Travel2Much

Beach Lover
Jun 13, 2005
159
0
GreaterFool said:
...Good luck if you're invested currently as I suspect the vast majority of those visiting this board are... I truly hope that the most bullish predictions come true for you, even though I won't be participating in any prospective runup from here.

If you are not participating, then why are you here telling us this? :dunno:
 

GreaterFool

Beach Comber
Jul 26, 2005
5
0
I didn't realize that you prefered this board be solely the domain of those who were currently 'long' real estate down there? I suppose my nearly 10 years of observations, and 8 years of ownership until March, 2005 are not worthy to you - if so, I would just politely ask that you ignore my post.
 

Travel2Much

Beach Lover
Jun 13, 2005
159
0
GreaterFool said:
I didn't realize that you prefered this board be solely the domain of those who were currently 'long' real estate down there? I suppose my nearly 10 years of observations, and 8 years of ownership until March, 2005 are not worthy to you - if so, I would just politely ask that you ignore my post.

Oh, so you are participating. Thanks for clearing that up. I am neither "long" nor "short" in Walton County real estate, preferring to leave those matters to my money people. I own a house there, but that's really it. Hope I enjoy it as much as you obviously did.
 

GreaterFool

Beach Comber
Jul 26, 2005
5
0
- We absolutely will continue to enjoy South Walton, and trust that you do as well. It looks like we'll be renters (the pauper class) however going forward, perhaps forever - perhaps not - but I have a suspicion we'll be able to repurchase at some point in the next few years - but that is solely dependent on my tepid outlook for our economy. You see, my view currently is that China is going to: 1) curtail their purchasing of US Treasuries thereby driving interest rates up significantly, and 2) at the same time, we continue to witness the complete evisceration of our manufacturing economy leading to massive unemployment in the U.S. over the next 10 years, just as our fiscal burdens of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will be bursting... and therefore.... i predict we'll witness a large scale revaluation of many asset classes and I think real estate will be the most impacted, followed by bonds (both corporate, treasury and non-investment grade) followed lastly by equities - That said, South Walton will be only somewhat immune to these prognostications, only to the extent that it establishes itself firmly as the most exclusive destination possible, because the continued stratification of our society, economically speaking, is a trend that I believe is not about to abate - and the "Capital Class" will want to live amongst themselves to the largest extent possible. If I am correct, South Walton's success depends upon actually increasing its exclusivity beyond being the most exclusive place on the Riviera.. - and In a Truman Show-esque kind of way, a place where the wealthy will be able to live in a controlled environment - a bubble, as it were. Currently however, South Walton is not the exclusive enclave that it needs to be because current demographic made up of a small handful of mere single digit millionaires, but far too many hard working upper middle managers, doctors, lawyers, realtors etc etc... in short, too many income dependent stake holders - evidenced by the fact that people are renting their homes out - for nearly the same price as when the asset class in question was valued at a fraction of current valuations -
 

Travel2Much

Beach Lover
Jun 13, 2005
159
0
GreaterFool said:
- We absolutely will continue to enjoy South Walton, and trust that you do as well. It looks like we'll be renters (the pauper class) however going forward, perhaps forever - perhaps not - but I have a suspicion we'll be able to repurchase at some point in the next few years - but that is solely dependent on my tepid outlook for our economy. You see, my view currently is that China is going to: 1) curtail their purchasing of US Treasuries thereby driving interest rates up significantly, and 2) at the same time, we continue to witness the complete evisceration of our manufacturing economy leading to massive unemployment in the U.S. over the next 10 years, just as our fiscal burdens of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will be bursting... and therefore.... i predict we'll witness a large scale revaluation of many asset classes and I think real estate will be the most impacted, followed by bonds (both corporate, treasury and non-investment grade) followed lastly by equities - That said, South Walton will be only somewhat immune to these prognostications, only to the extent that it establishes itself firmly as the most exclusive destination possible, because the continued stratification of our society, economically speaking, is a trend that I believe is not about to abate - and the "Capital Class" will want to live amongst themselves to the largest extent possible. If I am correct, South Walton's success depends upon actually increasing its exclusivity beyond being the most exclusive place on the Riviera.. - and In a Truman Show-esque kind of way, a place where the wealthy will be able to live in a controlled environment - a bubble, as it were. Currently however, South Walton is not the exclusive enclave that it needs to be because current demographic made up of a small handful of mere single digit millionaires, but far too many hard working upper middle managers, doctors, lawyers, realtors etc etc... in short, too many income dependent stake holders - evidenced by the fact that people are renting their homes out - for nearly the same price as when the asset class in question was valued at a fraction of current valuations -

Wow, that really sucks. Lucky you got out. Course, no investment is safe in times like that so I hope you are stockpiling gold.

My job is such that I make buckets of money when what you predict happens, so it is sort of a mixed blessing for me. Lucky I will have a beach house to relax in when the carnage begins.
 

GreaterFool

Beach Comber
Jul 26, 2005
5
0
Perhaps you are a bankruptcy attorney? I was only half serious with the previous post - we in the U.S. always find a way to adapt and lead.... i am sure it was someone like me that bespoke of the doom of the U.S. to the growing Japanese bohemeth in the late 1980's, but again the U.S. economy found a way... The china/india concerns we all have now to varying degrees can also be overcome, and if you're optimistic about the ability of comparative economic advantage, or more accurate absolute economic advantage to "lift all boats" then we should again be ok. For the vast majority of my lifetime, I have been a believer in rising tides lifting boats, in Laissez Faire economics more or less, and have rejected "zero-sum-game" viewpoints, but I have wavered a bit in my conviction of late - maybe that comes naturally when you hit your mid 30's.
 

Travel2Much

Beach Lover
Jun 13, 2005
159
0
GreaterFool said:
Perhaps you are a bankruptcy attorney? I was only half serious with the previous post - we in the U.S. always find a way to adapt and lead.... i am sure it was someone like me that bespoke of the doom of the U.S. to the growing Japanese bohemeth in the late 1980's, but again the U.S. economy found a way... The china/india concerns we all have now to varying degrees can also be overcome, and if you're optimistic about the ability of comparative economic advantage, or more accurate absolute economic advantage to "lift all boats" then we should again be ok. For the vast majority of my lifetime, I have been a believer in rising tides lifting boats, in Laissez Faire economics more or less, and have rejected "zero-sum-game" viewpoints, but I have wavered a bit in my conviction of late - maybe that comes naturally when you hit your mid 30's.

Nope, just a professional mess cleaner. Ya know, I would love to see you and skier and REschmuck get on at the same time and debate this together. It sure would be fascinating.
 

GreaterFool

Beach Comber
Jul 26, 2005
5
0
Here are the growth industries/professions (please feel free to add)

1. Prison Guards
2. Bankruptcy Attorney's
3. Publisher of Anarchists Magazines/Newsletter (subscription based of course)
4. Gun Dealer
5. Clergy
6. Democrat Ballot Observers
7. Capitalist who is short the USD, USD denominated treasuries, bonds & equities
8. Comedian
9. Foreclosure Marketer
10. Liquor Distributor





Travel2Much said:
Wow, that really sucks. Lucky you got out. Course, no investment is safe in times like that so I hope you are stockpiling gold.

My job is such that I make buckets of money when what you predict happens, so it is sort of a mixed blessing for me. Lucky I will have a beach house to relax in when the carnage begins.
 

Travel2Much

Beach Lover
Jun 13, 2005
159
0
GreaterFool said:
Here are the growth industries/professions (please feel free to add)

1. Prison Guards
2. Bankruptcy Attorney's
3. Publisher of Anarchists Magazines/Newsletter (subscription based of course)
4. Gun Dealer
5. Clergy
6. Democrat Ballot Observers
7. Capitalist who is short the USD, USD denominated treasuries, bonds & equities
8. Comedian
9. Foreclosure Marketer
10. Liquor Distributor

None of the above. Although, it would be kind of cool to publish an anarchist's magazine, with maybe a gun dealership on the side. I could start a shop, maybe in seaside.

Again, I would love to hear you and skier and REschmuck fight this one out. I know I would love it--like a big ole bunch of grizzly bears gnawing at each other. So, I'll wait and learn.
 
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