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Beach Dad

Beach Comber
Nov 5, 2006
33
0
:roll: I'm living out my lifelong dream of relocating my family here from Tx June 1st and am working through the pros and cons of the current market conditions. I'd love to hear from some of you regarding an objective view of pricing. I'll admit my mindset has become very jaded due to a number of factors. Side note: If you live in Rosemary Beach, don't even bother reading further, you are either retired, independently wealthy, or mortgaged out the wazoo and this lengthy post will bore you.

I'll preface this by saying I don't think I've ever seen so many real estate agents in one particular locale than I've seen here. And with all due respect, I don't expect any one of them to voice anything but optimism about how pricing and demand is right on the verge of taking off. (I'm very skeptical due to the fact that I read that there are over 11,000 listings right now along the Emerald Coast - supply is considerably higher than demand.)

I want someone to tell me what they would tell their son, friend, or business aquaintance they would do, if they were in my shoes. Not try to sell me on the area, just talk honestly about how to get the best value for my housing dollar.

That being said, I think that I am a great prospect for a home purchase. My income is above average, my credit excellent, and my job allows me to live anywhere along the Panhandle. My preference is to live as close to water as possible (and know that waterfront is out of the question). I don't want to have to drive across the causeway or Mid-bay bridge to get to the beach. Bluewater Bay is nice, but not my cup of tea.

However, it now seems that every mudhole with a trailer in this area has been listed at $300K. And I've been coming down here for 40+ years and I've never seen that kind of seller optimism. The number of homes in the $300K to $400K range is disappointing. And my view is that if I'm going to spend $500K for a 3 bedroom 2+ bath home here, I'll definitely build what I want, not buy a 70's home that somebody is trying to flip for a big profit because their agent has convinced them they can get it.

Am I the only guy in the grit eating world that thinks that a price correction is still yet to come? I understand that there is a lot of money coming into this area, but with homeowner's coverage and property taxes rising, I've got to believe that there are a number of folks in Atlanta, Bham, Memphis, etc, who have overextended themselves. If your taxes and insurance are $700/month, that can seriously impact your monthly mortgage note (escrow).

Am I nuts in my thinking? Is this California? I hope this area has not become unaffordable for the average family fortunate enough to live in this incredibly beautiful area. I'm seriously considering renting for a year to watch and wait. I'd love to hear what you would do if you were in my shoes. Thanks for allowing me to type this novel.
 

00seer00

Beach Lover
Oct 12, 2006
112
3
PCB
Mr Beach Dad,

You are right to think more correction is coming, in PCB you can find much more for your money. Sowal is different from most markets, it has had astronomical appreciation but for many good reasons and some bad. You must remember that there is a 4story building height on condos or what ever also this area is 95% new construction not a mix of junk, trailors,and older unkept property. The super Rich will continue to buy high end properties because of this and the FACT that these are the most Beautiful Beach in the States if not the World. Sowal Has limited space and the New International Airport will bring more super rich to this area a they will buy the high end units. The correction is everywhere in the USA except for a few areas and it should get very nasty soon in most markets. The enormous amounts of realtors is from the enormous amounts of money they were making on the way up and they told a friend and so on. Only 1 person buys at the bottom and only 1 person sells at the top. The deals are out there now and I don't think this area will come down to PCB prices.
Properties are close to cash flow in some cases over here in PCB but Sowal does have allot of Realtors and others who got caught holding to much land as well. We will soon have unbelievable press on the Airport and the Companies coming around it creating 10s of thousands of jobs. I heard the Highest price home in Sowal sold to the CEO of FEDEX for 9.2M and this will continue .Just my opinion for what its worth.
 

iqueequeg

Beach Lover
Feb 2, 2005
102
3
Snowy Boston
My opinion is rent until 2008 or 2009. I don't know if a correction will come between now and then or not, but I doubt there will be much appreciation.
Another option is rent or lease with option to buy with first right of refusal. In a buyer's market such as this you might find a seller willing to go along with it (if the house is sitting empty there's not much downside for the seller).

Good luck.
 

fisher

Beach Fanatic
Sep 19, 2005
822
76
I assume from your post that you are not super wealthy with money to burn. If I'm correct in that assumption, I would recommend that you keep your powder dry and rent for the time being. Prices have been falling for the past year or so and are likely to continue to do so given the huge amount of inventory on the market.

However, if you really want to own rather than rent, you might want to consider buying a lot and building a home. Raw land prices have fallen much faster than home prices. House prices have been slower to retreat but they are likely to take a hit as investors and builders get more and more desperate to unload excess inventory.

Come on down, rent for a while and keep a close eye on the market. You can watch average prices by looking at the real trend reports that are posted once a month in the Walton Sun and you can view actual pricing by going to the Walton County property appraisers website. When it appears things are beginning to turn the corner, snatch up something you like and enjoy your new home in SoWal.

Good luck.

PS--It will be very interesting to see if you get any recommendations to jump right into the market now with the appropriate data to back up the recommendation to buy versus rent for the time being.
 
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SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,770
802
B-Dad,

Another vote for "renting now and taking your sweet ole time looking around."

I see you're coming from the Texas Hill Country (very nice out that way). You'll need time to adjust from the "wide-open spaces" to the "expensive cramped places" and, I'm assuming, you'll need some time to sell your primary in Texas (unless you want to get slammed with non-homestead taxes in your Florida second-home).

As far as finding a rental, you'll have the pick of the litter if you don't try to get a place during high-tourist season (lock in a contract early or wait until August). And with your money from the sale of your Texas home in the bank, a great credit score and income to cover the mortgage--you'll have your own entourage of Realtors following you around like a Rock Star (you may never have to buy your own lunch for a year).

In the end, you may find out that you won't want to live here when you see the SoWal you've come to know and love over the past years might not be the same after, like OOseerOO points out, the new airport will unleash a flood of affluent folks onto 30A in the not-too-distant future along with 10s of thousands of low-paid laborers needed to service the said masses
<Cough: fat chance>.

No need to rush--it's not 2005 anymore.
 

beachmouse

Beach Fanatic
Dec 5, 2004
3,504
741
Bluewater Bay, FL
Another vote for renting in the short term. Not only because I see prices pretty flat to declining for the next 2-3 years, but also if you're talking dream home, it gives you time to really look around and figure out what the perfect place is for you.

I suspect there are plenty of people willing to rent long term right now after discovering that they can't flip like they'd thought, and that the short term rental management fees are pretty horrible.
 

Indigo Jill

Beach Fanatic
May 10, 2006
321
14
Point Washington
www.sowalscene.com
Beach Dad - I'm going to break ranks here with a different opinion - and no, I'm not a Realtor (but was one ;-) ). I think, if you want to move here and stay for a while (5+ years - and once you are here, I think you'll see you will NEVER want to leave because it is a wonderful life living in this amazing area), you won't be disappointed in your investment. The area is stagnant, yes, in real estate like SO many other places in the country. But there are some amazing deals right now, and like some of the other optimists on this board, I believe it will turn around. It's like shopping at TJMAXX - you have to sift through a lot of stuff, but there are some incredible buying opportunities and if you spend the time and effort, you can find a great deal. The real question you have to ask yourself is how bad do you want to be here? I rented for 8+ years and I can tell you, it was a real pain in the you-know-what. You could move here, have to move your family into a rental (no equity being built) and "hope" that a better deal will come along. Do your homework and I think you can find that "deal" now.

Just my 2 cents. Good luck.
 

fisher

Beach Fanatic
Sep 19, 2005
822
76
Beach Dad - I'm going to break ranks here with a different opinion - and no, I'm not a Realtor (but was one ;-) ). I think, if you want to move here and stay for a while (5+ years - and once you are here, I think you'll see you will NEVER want to leave because it is a wonderful life living in this amazing area), you won't be disappointed in your investment. The area is stagnant, yes, in real estate like SO many other places in the country. But there are some amazing deals right now, and like some of the other optimists on this board, I believe it will turn around. It's like shopping at TJMAXX - you have to sift through a lot of stuff, but there are some incredible buying opportunities and if you spend the time and effort, you can find a great deal. The real question you have to ask yourself is how bad do you want to be here? I rented for 8+ years and I can tell you, it was a real pain in the you-know-what. You could move here, have to move your family into a rental (no equity being built) and "hope" that a better deal will come along. Do your homework and I think you can find that "deal" now.

Just my 2 cents. Good luck.

Please let Beachdad and the rest of us know some the real deals that are available right now.
 

Indigo Jill

Beach Fanatic
May 10, 2006
321
14
Point Washington
www.sowalscene.com
Please let Beachdad and the rest of us know some the real deals that are available right now.

As I said, I'm not a Realtor anymore so don't have access to the MLS to quickly pull some data - and I'm not going to sift through public records ... Beach Dad can do that.

That said, I've heard of homes in WaterColor selling around $600-$700K and people getting incredible deals at auctions. And there is a lot on my block here in Point Washington that was just recently listed for $99K (or around there). That to me is a steal. Maybe some Realtors could quickly share some data with us?
 

fisher

Beach Fanatic
Sep 19, 2005
822
76
As I said, I'm not a Realtor anymore so don't have access to the MLS to quickly pull some data - and I'm not going to sift through public records ... Beach Dad can do that.

That said, I've heard of homes in WaterColor selling around $600-$700K and people getting incredible deals at auctions. And there is a lot on my block here in Point Washington that was just recently listed for $99K (or around there). That to me is a steal. Maybe some Realtors could quickly share some data with us?


It won't be a steal in hindsight if prices keep falling.
 
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