This year should be a good one

[SoWalSally]

By David Clement, broker for Blue Mountain Beach Realty, Inc. He has been involved in the real estate market in this area for the last decade.

Auld Lang Syne roughly means ?times gone by? in Scottish, and in the real estate world, we are probably thankful that 2006 has gone by.
We find ourselves in 2007 in a much healthier market. The adjustments made for the properties that have to sell have, for the most part, taken place, and prices and more importantly property values, are stabilizing, both locally and nationally. We are in a buyer?s market, and because of the adjustments, there are some pretty tremendous deals out there.
In the cyclic progression of things, we?ve pretty much hit the bottom. There are those properties which must be sold, due to overinvestment, and these will be realized this year by the next wave of early investors.
Look for the market to hang out here for the fi rst two and a half quarters of this year, with the least expensive condos and homes moving fi rst
Then as the sales and attrition take place, watch for a movement into higher priced condos and homes.
Also watch for prices starting to rise again slightly toward the end of this year, with anticipation of higher pricing in the spring of 2008.
This anticipatory trend will probably go on for the next couple of years, if history is an indicator, with another crescendo again in three years or so.
How many times have you said that now famous expression, heard locally for years, ?I really wish I had bought something several years ago??
Well, guess what? Several years from now is coming.
This year and probably next will be the years to pick up something ?cheap? in comparison to the coming years. It has happened that way in 1998-99 and 2002-03, and according to history, and barring any economic or social long term disasters, it is very likely to happen again, especially here in this area with our anticipated growth.
Keep in mind that there is a considerable amount of inventory in new single family homes and homesites, so the progression in these segments may take a little while longer, but the pricing may also, in the short term, be good.
So, welcome to 2007. We look for this to be a very good year!

 

[groveral]

Thanks, it is good to hear some optimism. I read with interest the real estate report giving year to year results for Walton County. I must admit, I do not see the upturn--this year or next--that you mentioned. I truly hope you are right! The housing inventory and sales level suggest some additional time to clean out the pipeline. This process could well exceed two ears and that is if their are no hurricanes to further down turn the real estate market.

I am far from an expert, just a concerned property owner on beautiful 30A.

 

[Babyblue]

This year will be a good year. If not great. :clap_1:

 

[sberry123]

This year will be a good year. If not great. :clap_1:

Gee, I wish I could predict the market. I would be a millionaire !

 

[Babyblue]

Gee, I wish I could predict the market. I would be a millionaire !

You already have! :clap_1:

 

[Camp Creek Kid]

We've had a property on the market for almost 6 months at a very realistic price. Last week we had a low-ball offer that we passed on (but were tempted) just got an offer this weekend that we are happy with. There is another property in the neighborhood, at a comparable price, that also received multiple offers this weekend--some low-ball and some realistic.

Buyers are finally starting to make their move, but I think the bottom feeders waited too long because real offers are coming in at the same time that the ridiculously low offers are coming in.

 

[Rita]

Congratulations CCK! (Interesting first hand info too.;-))

 

[Miss Kitty]

Yay CCK!!! This will be a good year as soon as I can get back down there.

 

[robertsondavies]

this market be heading down much further.. i wish it weren't so... the realtor with those kinds words about 2006 being "behind us" is nice to listen to if you own... unfortunately, the adjustment referred to has not truly yet taken place... unless you call the first 10% down after 500% up in 7 yrs. an adjustment.

2007 and 2008 will be the adjustment years - without hurricanes, and with legislative help, South Walton real estate will be worth 35% less for lots, and exactly same for homes in 2008 than people are 'transacting at' now.. In other words, we're headed back to late 2003 levels, not 2002. If we have a hurricane, we head back to 2002 levels.

If you own a home that you think is now worth 800k, and can afford to sell in 2 years at 490k (or 390 if we have a hurricane, and ins. adjustment again)... then do NOT worry... because in 10 or 15 years, history tells us that you'll probably be fine

on the other hand, if you can't or just don't feel like gambling on that, its ok to take a loss, and sell now at early 2004 prices....

it may be worth your mental health

 

[Bobby J]

We've had a property on the market for almost 6 months at a very realistic price. Last week we had a low-ball offer that we passed on (but were tempted) just got an offer this weekend that we are happy with. There is another property in the neighborhood, at a comparable price, that also received multiple offers this weekend--some low-ball and some realistic.

Buyers are finally starting to make their move, but I think the bottom feeders waited too long because real offers are coming in at the same time that the ridiculously low offers are coming in.

This sums up my feeling on that last post. We got an offer on a piece that has been on the market forever. Investor purchase. The same piece at auction a year ago could not get $1,000,000. Todays offer was well over $1,000,000 and looks like we may move to contract. It seems the media and some doom sayers on this board may be a bit off. I am busier then I have ever been. The deals are allot harder to put together but something is going on... The market will still have corrections but to say the we head back to 2003 levels is too general in IMHO. Looks good on paper but not the paper my contracts are coming in on.