• Trouble logging in? Send us a message with your username and/or email address for help.
New posts

Miss Kitty

Meow
Jun 10, 2005
47,017
1,131
69
SJ and RO are just chompin' at the bit for "The Great Statistics Debate" to begin.......first up is......
 

Miss Kitty

Meow
Jun 10, 2005
47,017
1,131
69
RiverOtter said:
Yes, carry on please :popcorn:

These smilies look like characters from "South Park"!
 

skier

Beach Lover
Mar 7, 2005
116
0
Cork,

You forgot to mention Rosemary in your previous comparisons. According to the Walton County records there were 50 closings of IMPROVED properties from 1/1/04 to 7/31/04. From 1/1/05 to 7/31/05 there were only 19. Also, the available inventory has at least tripled since last year. Not sure of the average price, but it appears that the average price did increase but so did the average size of the house sold. So, I'm not sure how the average price per square foot changed.
 

skier

Beach Lover
Mar 7, 2005
116
0
Cork,

In response to your responses--

You're data is outdated. Lot 61 is listed for $595. Started at $799, dropped it to $650K. It went under contract in 10 days and busted. Relisted for $595K


And, your point is what. That I was right that prices are falling.

Lot 63 way overpaid. The seller made $582,500 gross profit in less than a year. Who advised that buyer? Paid full asking price too. Yes, there are some deals to be had and that's why a smart investor is going to begin buying on the ebb. Most RECENT data indicates an appreciable increase in pending sales over the last 11 days which a smart investor will track. Is it time to buy? Too early to tell but should certainly be watching data other than the county appraiser's office.


So, did the buyers on lot 64 and 66 overpay too at $780k and $795k respectively. Maybe you should have been advising them that they overpaid too. Seems like the market at the time for those lots was in the $800k plus range if numerous people bought. The sellers made nice profits but there were willing buyers for three identical lots. Now there are 5 adjacent lots listed for between $595k and $679k. And, noone is biting. So, what is the market? Did it fall in this particular area of Watersound? Also, there were many, many other lots within spitting distance that sold for $850k to $950k around the same time. Sure looks like the market has fallen to me. But, I'm not a realtor like you so I guess I can't spot trends as they are happening.

Is anybody buying? Here's the numbers of 30A lots that went under contract this year. Seems we might be seeing the first signs of an uptrend or it could be short term inmigration - too early to tell.

Jan - 93
Feb - 92
March - 93
April - 64
May - 50
June - 42
July - 24
August - 25
Sept - 1st 11 days - 16 ( if it stays the same this month, that would be 43 this month which is interesting)

Homes on 30A:

Jan - 40
Feb - 38
March- 53
April - 44
May - 33
June - 37
July - 18
August - 13
Sept - 1st 11 days - 6 (which means if it stays the same for the rest of the month, they'll be 30 going under contract in Sept)


The trend in June and July looks really bad, but it is encouraging to see a slight uptick. Believe it or not, I hope it is the beginning of a new groundswell of buyers.


Yes, the lot is $450 but it's significantly smaller than the one that sold for $585K in 4/05. Also, it has to start construction by end of 06. The other doesn't have to until end of 07. You need to compare apples to apples with "specific" data. Also, I had several people registered for Phase IV but when we saw the location they pulled out. Many people bought Watercolor to flip. I live on 30A so I have no problem holding my property for more than a few months. I've flipped but you can't always make $200K in 2 months.

The similar lots next door, 3 lots down, 5 lots down and 6 lots down sold for $565k to $635k. These are apples to apples and the $450k lot has 15 months to BEGIN buildout. PLENTY of time to get a plan through the DRB and hire a builder. You only need to begin moving dirt by the buildout date to avoid penalties (and by the way, St Joe is not doing much in the way of enforcing penalties).

No doubt, Joe did a great job of marketing. People see the pretty ads in Atlanta, call the office and buy. Watercolor is a beautiful project but buyers who go straight to the developer aren't going to be exposed to anything but the developer's community. I've got a lot listed right now, large enough to put a house, pool AND carriage house on - only 5 lots from the water in front of Phase IV for just about $550. Lets see...$450 for a tram to the beach or $550 for a view and quick walk. As a resident and long-term investor, I would so much rather be there. As a "flipper", don't know what I'd choose to be honest.

I know lots of people that bought in Watercolor and none of them are country bumpkins that called the office and bought based on pretty pictures. These people paid the going market prices at the time and now it looks like they overpaid (your quote) only BECAUSE prices are now falling. NOT because they actually overpaid at the time. Saying that someone overpaid when the market was demanding those prices due to tight supply is ludicrous. Hindsight is 20/20.


Yes and no. The county has more comprehensive data because they have sales that were not listed in the MLS. The county data appears to be about 2 months behind so if you want CURRENT data, the MLS is the only place to go. Also, the county data is too cumbersome to extract the data and there's no history on the sale to understand the dynamics of the sale.

As you can tell, the data extraction is not so cumbersome that a bozo like me can't do it.



These are isolated, abberant facts that I hope are not intended to scare people. Any trend analysis MUST include averages and means. I can site as many people who have overpaid as those who have sold too low. People die, people get divorced, people's incomes drop (like pilots). One or two people who make poor or desperate decisions does not dictate a market.

Averages and means make no sense without more facts like square feet, proximity to ocean, location, etc, etc. Specific data supplements and confirms or denies the general nature of your data.



MOST of these sellers will make money. I have a buyer who went under contract on a house for $889K in 4/05. It just appraised at $1,099,000 and that appreciation was over the "bubble explosion" that you seem to be portraying.

Since when did an appraisal mean you actually made money on a home. I can give you dozens and dozens of examples of homes, land, buildings, etc. that never sold for close to the appraised amount. Good luck to the recent buyer if they actually try to put the house on the market and sell it for $1099000.
 
Last edited:

Cork On the Ocean

directionally challenged
skier said:
Cork,

You forgot to mention Rosemary in your previous comparisons. According to the Walton County records there were 50 closings of IMPROVED properties from 1/1/04 to 7/31/04. From 1/1/05 to 7/31/05 there were only 19. Also, the available inventory has at least tripled since last year. Not sure of the average price, but it appears that the average price did increase but so did the average size of the house sold. So, I'm not sure how the average price per square foot changed.

Skier, the MLS shows 23 closed sales 1/05-7/31/05 in Rosemary of improved property. This doesn't include FSBOS or hip pockets as your figures in 2004 do. I checked about 8 listings the other night that sold in July 05 against the county records and only 1 was entered at the appraiser's office. If your going to use the county database to compare, you really need to wait until the data is entered for this year to be accurate.
 

Cork On the Ocean

directionally challenged
Rita said:
C on the O :clap_1:
You make good points.
I worked in statistics for a brief period (in NO WAY claim to be expert!) and it drives me crazy to read posts that pick examples of a property or two and argue the market from those. :roll: It's just not statistically sound.

Hi Rita,

Welcome to South Walton and it's good to have someone who understands statistics and how they work. I don't purport to be an expert in anything . Just have a passion and knack for some things which fascinate me. You've stated my sentiments perfectly. The area is stable in the long run. It may have a period of correction which has been needed but we are still showing strong appreciation. NAR's newsletter this week stated that single family homes in Florida have increased 8.75% annually since 2001. This is 2004 data and of course averaged over the 3 year period. 30 A homes increased about 40% in the last year. I think that will drop over the next year but I'll be surprised if we don't have 18-20%. Who knows. :dunno:

Uof F just published their report on the Florida market which is 90 pages. If I ever get the time to read through it will post their predictions.

:welcome:
 
New posts


Sign Up for SoWal Newsletter