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Bobby J

Beach Fanatic
Apr 18, 2005
4,043
600
Blue Mountain beach
www.lifeonshore.com
Generally speaking, it is certainly a better time to buy than it was
(2) years ago.



Whether it is a better time to buy than it will be in the future is
the unanswered question.


I will say that sellers are listening to us about getting right on the price. The folks that will not are having a hard time finding agents that will list. Not sure we are at the bottom but over the next year sellers will be pricing properties correctly which will help the market level off. We then will be able to return to a "normal" RE market.
 

Mango

SoWal Insider
Apr 7, 2006
9,709
1,360
New York/ Santa Rosa Beach
From the same people who said there was no bubble.
And to buy absolutely as much house as you could, because
a "budget that is tight now will ease in the future as your
earnings grow."

I didn't know Bernanke was a Realtor too. :roll:

Thursday, October 27, 2005; Page D01

Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,770
802
I didn't know Bernanke was a Realtor too. :roll:

"Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst,..."

Pretty much so....he got it wrong too.

On the other hand, current NAR-shill Yun thinks he's the Fed Chief:

"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the worst part of the credit crunch has already worked its way through the data. :cool: “The unusual mortgage disruptions that peaked in August were clearly seen in lower home sales that were finalized in September and October, so the market was underperforming,” he said. “Now that mortgage conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels.”

(He's probably counting on short sales and auctions to pick up the slack.)

------------------

Meanwhile, the NAR has tapped each of its members $30 to bankroll the "Annual Now Is The Best Time To Buy" media blitz. :roll:



.
 
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Tom at BV

Beach Lover
May 14, 2006
138
11
Plymouth & Petoskey MI
Has the Housing Market hit bottom yet??? :yikes:

In my opinion, based on my recent Thanksgiving visit to SoWal, Yes & No.

YES, for quality property's on the south side of 30-A.
All recent construction projects using the latest FL building codes and water front is at the low point. I believe these property's have taken a 20% to 30% drop from the high prices in 2005. There will be exceptions with desperate sellers having money problems & smart professional money people are buying these bargains if priced right. Quality always sells and this is the safe real estate value for appreciation $$.

NO, the market is not at the low point for marginal property seller's. So many of these sellers have not gotten the memo about marginal property down @ 40% to 50% from the high point in 2005. Only bargain amateur buyer's are in this market. I believe you want to stay away from this market unless you only have a limited $$$ to spend. Long term you will get little appreciation in $$ value.

Summary: I talked to a few trusted professional real estate people & they sort of agreed. I believe it will be about 1-2-years before the market stabilizes after the presidential election and 6-8-years before we see a really hot real estate market. I think I'll keep what I have & enjoy SoWal with all you wonderful people. I also believe the last standing real estate brokers are truly professional and your best friend during these troubling real estate times.
BTW: This is my man on the street, seat of the pants personal opinion.:wave:

T
 

Bobby J

Beach Fanatic
Apr 18, 2005
4,043
600
Blue Mountain beach
www.lifeonshore.com
Has the Housing Market hit bottom yet??? :yikes:

In my opinion, based on my recent Thanksgiving visit to SoWal, Yes & No.

YES, for quality property's on the south side of 30-A.
All recent construction projects using the latest FL building codes and water front is at the low point. I believe these property's have taken a 20% to 30% drop from the high prices in 2005. There will be exceptions with desperate sellers having money problems & smart professional money people are buying these bargains if priced right. Quality always sells and this is the safe real estate value for appreciation $$.

NO, the market is not at the low point for marginal property seller's. So many of these sellers have not gotten the memo about marginal property down @ 40% to 50% from the high point in 2005. Only bargain amateur buyer's are in this market. I believe you want to stay away from this market unless you only have a limited $$$ to spend. Long term you will get little appreciation in $$ value.

Summary: I talked to a few trusted professional real estate people & they sort of agreed. I believe it will be about 1-2-years before the market stabilizes after the presidential election and 6-8-years before we see a really hot real estate market. I think I'll keep what I have & enjoy SoWal with all you wonderful people. I also believe the last standing real estate brokers are truly professional and your best friend during these troubling real estate times.
BTW: This is my man on the street, seat of the pants personal opinion.:wave:

T

Great post Tom! The "A" proprieties that have a good price get gobbled up. When the market returns many buyers will be looking at great buys but the quality (location,amenities) deals will be gone. Of course will always have exceptions.
 

Kurt

Admin
Staff member
Oct 15, 2004
2,233
4,925
SoWal
mooncreek.com
NO, the market is not at the low point for marginal property seller's. So many of these sellers have not gotten the memo about marginal property down @ 40% to 50% from the high point in 2005. Only bargain amateur buyer's are in this market. I believe you want to stay away from this market unless you only have a limited $$$ to spend. Long term you will get little appreciation in $$ value.

Tom -what do you mean by marginal property?

Also, I disagree with your last sentence, but you might have a different definition of long term than I do.
 

Tom at BV

Beach Lover
May 14, 2006
138
11
Plymouth & Petoskey MI
Tom -what do you mean by marginal property?

Also, I disagree with your last sentence, but you might have a different definition of long term than I do.

Hi Kurt,

My definition of marginal property.
Location, location & location.
Property north of 30-A with long distances to the beach.
Former rental property.
Old housing units built before new FL building codes.
Small lots with no HOA controls.
Un-Completed housing developments.

Hope this clears up my post.

T
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,770
802
Hi Kurt,


Hope this clears up my post.

T

Please quantify your appreciation value for both the "YES" properties and "NO" properties.

Also quantify the "hot" RE market expected in 6-8 years (compared to the last frenzy).

How's the RE market in your neck of MI?


.
 
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Tom at BV

Beach Lover
May 14, 2006
138
11
Plymouth & Petoskey MI
Please quantify your appreciation value for both the "YES" properties and "NO" properties.

Also quantify the "hot" RE market expected in 6-8 years (compared to the last frenzy).

How's the RE market in your neck of MI?


.

Gosh, I feel like I am being grilled like a politician looking for votes:dunno:
These are my candid personal opinions. All professional advise is welcome.

My comments on a hot market in 6-8 years is back to 2005 pricing and maybe higher.

FYI: If I considered selling my place in SoWal I would do it in 5-years. I believe this would be a good time to take my profit under normal conditions in a good market.

The real estate market in MI is real bad in the Detroit area, except in some Northern resort area's. Example: In the resort area's like Harbor Springs, Petoskey, Charlevoix, etc. good stuff is not selling, but the price's are stable. I talked to a local Harbor Springs realator recently & he said 2nd. home money buyer's are out there & when they come in to write a check they turn to each other & say "what check book should I write the cash check out with"!!! BTW: I want to be like that.:love:

Tom
 
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