Housing Market hits bottom according to NAR.

[Smiling JOe]

Has the Housing Market hit bottom yet???

In my opinion, based on my recent Thanksgiving visit to SoWal, Yes & No.

YES, for quality property's on the south side of 30-A.
All recent construction projects using the latest FL building codes and water front is at the low point. I believe these property's have taken a 20% to 30% drop from the high prices in 2005. There will be exceptions with desperate sellers having money problems & smart professional money people are buying these bargains if priced right. Quality always sells and this is the safe real estate value for appreciation $$.

NO, the market is not at the low point for marginal property seller's. So many of these sellers have not gotten the memo about marginal property down @ 40% to 50% from the high point in 2005. Only bargain amateur buyer's are in this market. I believe you want to stay away from this market unless you only have a limited $$$ to spend. Long term you will get little appreciation in $$ value.

Summary: I talked to a few trusted professional real estate people & they sort of agreed. I believe it will be about 1-2-years before the market stabilizes after the presidential election and 6-8-years before we see a really hot real estate market. I think I'll keep what I have & enjoy SoWal with all you wonderful people. I also believe the last standing real estate brokers are truly professional and your best friend during these troubling real estate times.
BTW: This is my man on the street, seat of the pants personal opinion.

T

Interesting observations, with which I mostly agree. I'm not sure that I agree about your statement that only bargain amateurs will be buying "marginal" properties. We do have other types of buyers looking to buy homes. Not all are investors.

I cannot predict the future and don't know where we will be in 6-8 years in the local RE market. If the market is "really hot," as you say, the question people have to ask, is where will they buy in to it? If they wait until the market IS really hot, their profit will not be nearly as great as they would be if they bought prior to, or during, a run-up. You can't get the growth if you wait until everyone is buying. The smart money is buying the good value properties now, while some sellers are struggling financially. Those buyers are typically conservative, with a good knowledge of where this market has been, and a good idea of where it will go.

 

[Tom at BV]

Interesting observations, with which I mostly agree. I'm not sure that I agree about your statement that only bargain amateurs will be buying "marginal" properties. We do have other types of buyers looking to buy homes. Not all are investors.

I cannot predict the future and don't know where we will be in 6-8 years in the local RE market. If the market is "really hot," as you say, the question people have to ask, is where will they buy in to it? If they wait until the market IS really hot, their profit will not be nearly as great as they would be if they bought prior to, or during, a run-up. You can't get the growth if you wait until everyone is buying. The smart money is buying the good value properties now, while some sellers are struggling financially. Those buyers are typically conservative, with a good knowledge of where this market has been, and a good idea of where it will go.

Thanks SJ
You summary is right on, we don't know the future.

Tom

 

[SHELLY]

Interesting observations, with which I mostly agree. I'm not sure that I agree about your statement that only bargain amateurs will be buying "marginal" properties. We do have other types of buyers looking to buy homes. Not all are investors.

I cannot predict the future and don't know where we will be in 6-8 years in the local RE market. If the market is "really hot," as you say, the question people have to ask, is where will they buy in to it? If they wait until the market IS really hot, their profit will not be nearly as great as they would be if they bought prior to, or during, a run-up. You can't get the growth if you wait until everyone is buying. The smart money is buying the good value properties now, while some sellers are struggling financially. Those buyers are typically conservative, with a good knowledge of where this market has been, and a good idea of where it will go.

:scratch:

So you're saying "Now is the best time to buy?"




.

 

[Bobby J]

:scratch:

So you're saying "Now is the best time to buy?"




.

Actually "the best time is in 12 hours"

 

[Smiling JOe]

:scratch:

So you're saying "Now is the best time to buy?"




.

I didn't say that. All I'm saying is that we don't know the future, and without knowing the future, we will never know without a doubt the best time to buy. The best time to buy is known only in hindsight and that relates only historically. It doesn't project into the future, even when six years eventually comes around. Since we only know good investments and bad investments in hindsight, we can only compare now to the past, and now is a helluva lot better time to buy than back in 2005. Again, we only know this because 2005 has passed. If you go back and read, you will see that my thoughts were specifically relating to Tom's guess that the market might be "really hot" in 6-8 years. Do you disagree that the time to buy into a market is when the market is 30-35% off the highs, rather than when a market returns to be "really hot?"

 

[SHELLY]

. Do you disagree that the time to buy into a market is when the market is 30-35% off the highs, rather than when a market returns to be "really hot?"

I think Real Estate isn't an everyman's (women's) "investment." I think most of the people in the US should only buy a home when one needs and can afford one. For those who do "invest" in real estate, the best time to buy is when the numbers make sense--and now ain't it. For the other folks who want a beach house "just because" they have money to burn--I think the majority of them already have one, two or more; and for those who do not, the numbers are too small to make a difference.

The credit situation is more serious than folks imagine or are willing to admit. The majority of housing isn't going anywhere but down and sideways until that is straightened out. How the housing market performs is now in the hands of well-financed, pragmatic people--and they're in no rush to buy.

.


.

 

[Bobby J]

Best time to buy is in 8.5 hours. Listen close we are going to ring a bell..... I call it the bottom bell. Only true believers can hear it. The bell represents the true spirit of Real Estate.

 

[Bobby J]

True story!

 

[Romeosmydog]

You are a funny kid BJ. You should probably lay off the Christmas Specials though.

 

[dsilvar]

For those who do "invest" in real estate, the best time to buy is when the numbers make sense--and now ain't it.

.

What would they be, Shel? 36-24-36 ?
any "number" is still speculation..stay long term in RE and you will have a good return.
For that matter even short term RE investments can pay.
after all... those pre construction condo flippers DID make a killing during a very short window.
..as a British expat, you must surely believe in real estate as a good investment?:roll: