Calling The Bottom

[BrettMan]

Re: Calling the bottom!

So - I haven't posted here in a very long time - but I do recall a thread some time ago where people were calling the bottom - or at least the right time to buy again... and I said Feb 2009. I still stand by that, and plan to buy back in at that time. I bought a property at Rosemary in 2003, and sold it in a "fire sale" for over 150% of what similar lots are going for today. I did a 1031 into a few really boring (but solvent) rentals in Augusta, GA and I plan to sell those in the fall/winter of 2008 (do another 1031) and buy a condo on 30A in Feb 2009 per my plan. I hate to be right all the time.. but damn....

 

[SHELLY]

Re: Calling the bottom!

So - I haven't posted here in a very long time - but I do recall a thread some time ago where people were calling the bottom - or at least the right time to buy again... and I said Feb 2009. I hate to be right all the time.. but damn....

:shock: Crap! Did I sleep through 2008?


.

 

[Bobby J]

Re: Calling the bottom!

:shock: Crap! Did I sleep through 2008?


.

Where are you from? As much as I want you to go away, my life would not be the same without you! You are kind of like an addiction!

 

[fisher]

Re: Calling the bottom!

So - I haven't posted here in a very long time - but I do recall a thread some time ago where people were calling the bottom - or at least the right time to buy again... and I said Feb 2009. I still stand by that, and plan to buy back in at that time. I bought a property at Rosemary in 2003, and sold it in a "fire sale" for over 150% of what similar lots are going for today. I did a 1031 into a few really boring (but solvent) rentals in Augusta, GA and I plan to sell those in the fall/winter of 2008 (do another 1031) and buy a condo on 30A in Feb 2009 per my plan. I hate to be right all the time.. but damn....

Here was one of your quotes of another thread--

I bought in back in Jan and Feb at an average per share price of $70.11. Over 17% return in six months. Go Joe!!

I think Joe will go well over $100 per share even if land prices do fall as the speculators clear out. Most of the land they own is still on the books for their purchase price ($1-$2 PER ACRE!!!).


Given your knack for being right ;-), when does JOE hit $100?

 

[elgordoboy]

Re: Calling the bottom!

Here was one of your quotes of another thread--

I bought in back in Jan and Feb at an average per share price of $70.11. Over 17% return in six months. Go Joe!!

I think Joe will go well over $100 per share even if land prices do fall as the speculators clear out. Most of the land they own is still on the books for their purchase price ($1-$2 PER ACRE!!!).


Given your knack for being right ;-), when does JOE hit $100?

Doh!

 

[Busta Hustle]

Re: Calling the bottom!

Shelly would it be safe to say that most folks here couldn't grab their bottom with both hands?

 

[elgordoboy]

Re: Calling the bottom!

Shelly would it be safe to say that most folks here couldn't grab their bottom with both hands?

Maybe you could show us how...take a picture.

 

[quartz sand]

Re: Calling the bottom!

What are the banks doing through all this? Many have said they are not in the real estate business. But it is big money's business to 'know' whats going on (OK, I know that's flamebait).

I've heard that carrying written off real estate on a banks books impairs their ability (by impacting required reserve percentages) to write new loans. When is this impact greatest- only when the bank chooses to sell at a loss, or does it impact them if they continue to own/carry the real estate on their books at it's original value?

Right now, at least in the higher end of the Sowal market, it seems to me that the banks are choosing to keep the real estate on their books (at the value of the original loan) rather than selling for <90% MLS and writing it off. There may be accounting factors relating to which quarter the bank posts losses in, and there may also be regional/loan value variables in play. Any thoughts?

One way to see if I am right would be to look at Lis pendens/foreclosures over time (say Q307, Q407, Q108) to see how many are still bank owned, and of those that were sold and have closed how the sales price compared to the MLS listed price/prior sale? To really understand the data it would help if it were sliced up according to whether the property in question was middle or high end, by single family, condo, and land.

Has anyone on this board done this?

 

[Busta Hustle]

Re: Calling the bottom!

Are you trying to reach a conclusion as to what % below loan value banks are accepting on foreclosed properties?

 

[SSGA]

Re: Calling the bottom!

We've been looking at property in the area for a few months-online and in person and from what I've heard (rumors included), seen on listing sheets and personally experienced (we have a contract pending on the west end of PCB that is a foreclosure) it looks like banks are "offering" about a 35-40% discount on average from what is on their books. The bank had been owner of record for about 9 months. We offered 2002 pricing.

Just my observation, but I am not in the real estate business and definitely don't have a first row seat-besides the fact that I skipped all the business classes in college in favor of beer on the campus lawn ;-) so I'll have to defer the analyzing to others more qualified!