by: JeffMasters, 11:53 AM EDT on August 16, 2008
www.weatherunderground.com
...Fay's future strength when it hits the U.S. depends critically upon how much strengthening occurs today. Fay will be traversing the highest heat content waters in the entire Atlantic Ocean today, so there is the potential for the storm to reach Category 1 hurricane status before crossing Cuba Sunday night. If Fay does hit South Florida, the storm is likely to be a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane, since it will not have enough time over water to reorganize much. A strike further up the coast will likely result in a stronger Fay at landfall, with a Category 3 storm not out of the question (20% chance).
The latest model map is below. NOGAPS model is pointed directly at Panama City area.
www.weatherunderground.com
...Fay's future strength when it hits the U.S. depends critically upon how much strengthening occurs today. Fay will be traversing the highest heat content waters in the entire Atlantic Ocean today, so there is the potential for the storm to reach Category 1 hurricane status before crossing Cuba Sunday night. If Fay does hit South Florida, the storm is likely to be a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane, since it will not have enough time over water to reorganize much. A strike further up the coast will likely result in a stronger Fay at landfall, with a Category 3 storm not out of the question (20% chance).
The latest model map is below. NOGAPS model is pointed directly at Panama City area.