I've had concerns when watching the MLS Hot sheet this year. I felt that I was seeing many more price reductions this year than last year (which were minimal on 30A). This thread stimulated me to run some numbers:
Price Decreases: Each ratio=#price changes/#price drops/%of changes down
March April May June to date
2004 98 /5/5% 88/12/13.6% 78/16/20.5% 34/7/20.6%
2005 142/43/30.3% 113/45/39.8% 161/111/68.9% 87/63/72.4%
Looks like more Price Changes-probably more listings. More price decreases-Overinflated list prices.
Pending Sales:
#Pending Ave Pend Sales Price Ave Pend SqFt Price
3/04 140 $755,547 $449.82
4/04 143 $739,405 $421.12
5/04 111 $864,489 $457.79
6/04 To date 48 $857,934 $460.24
3/05 111 (-21%) $1,179,530 (+56%) $599.92 (+33%)
4/05 75 (-48%) $1,231,393 (+66%) $624.08 (+48%)
5/05 74 (-33%) $1,099,248 (+27%) $592.98 (+29%)
6/05 to date 35 (-27%) $1,227,977 (+43%) $671.67 (+46%)
#Sales are down but moving back up from spring. Ave Sales price still way up as is the sq ft price :clap_1:. March and April 05, Ave Price increased significantly more that the sq ft price which makes me think that homes are larger (more sq ft for the money) The trend changed in May and June 05 which looks like as the sq ft price is increasing, people are taking less square feet than spring. Seems to be confirmed by the average sq ft of pending sales for 2005 (Price/sq ft price)
3/05 - Ave Sq Ft = 1966
4/05 - Ave Sq Ft = 1973
5/05 - Ave Sq Ft = 1854
6/05 - Ave Sq Ft = 1828
This data is strictly for 30A properties south of 98. Seems like we're still experiencing great returns but the decrease in #sales tell me less buyers for this area and maybe the trend in decreased sq ft could mean that we are approaching the cap on what people will pay for paradise. Of course, people overpricing their list prices doesn't help the trend. Apparently, there's still people out there to buy this market but will potential buyers feel they are priced out of this market and move on to other areas - N. Santa Rosa, Freeport, Mexco Bch? Will developers sense this trend and move on to other areas? Were already seeing moves into those areas. Any input would be appreciated.
Good? Bad? Depends on your perspective, I guess, but for those looking for strictly profit on quicker turns, there's probably going to better locales this year. Of course a 50% increase on property purchased at $400K is a $200K profit while a 25% increase on $1.1 million is a $275K profit so people who can afford 30A may still do better than higher appreciating, lower end markets.
Will be running similiar data on Freeport and North Santa Rosa for my mailing list. Will be happy to post on board for those interested or can add anyone interested to my mailing list - just email.