Watercolor driving market along 30A?

[fisher]

In looking at the Walton County sales records through June, it appears that Watercolor is driving the real estate market along 30A in terms of the planned communities. The Walton County sales data and the inventory on the MLS show the following--

Single family home sales through June--
Watercolor 38
Watersound 10
Rosemary 5
Seaside 3
Alys 1

Inventory as of today--
Watercolor 104
Watersound 30
Rosemary 87
Seaside 34
Alys 20

Approximate years sales in inventory based on first six months activity--
Watercolor 1.5
Watersound 3
Seaside 5.5
Rosemary 8.5
Alys 10

Watercolor appears to be pretty healthy in terms of sales and inventory. Watersound and Seaside are okay, but Rosemary and Alys haven't been faring too well.

This data came off the county website and EmeraldCoastHomesonline.com. I would be willing to bet that the data is not 100% accurate (maybe a realtor can provide more accurate data). However, the numbers are directionally correct.

 

[Matt J]

I'm betting some foreclosure stats would explain a lot more as well.

 

[passin thru]

The ECAR MLS data show 46 home sales closed in WaterColor from 1/1 through 6/30/09.

Note that 16 of those 46 were in the Ph 4 Turtle Ridge neighborhood, the St. Joe-built spec homes south of Publix, and were all sold at under $250 per sq ft ..... whereas the median price per sq ft for the rest of what sold in WaterColor during that period was about $385K.

I agree, though, that WaterColor is in some ways driving the sales activity along 30-A at present. Prices have come down markedly over several years' time, and a number of buyers now perceive the value there. It's fundamentally a very attractive, well-planned & enjoyable community, and is a great fit for a lot of the SoWal demographic group.

Please PM me for more data or analysis.

 

[scooterbug44]

I think it is more of a sheer volume/firesale issue.

You can't begin to build for what they are unloading some places for in WC and Watersound.

 

[fisher]

I think it is more of a sheer volume/firesale issue.

You can't begin to build for what they are unloading some places for in WC and Watersound.

Sure you can. Lot prices continue to fall. You can now pick up a few nice lots in WC or WS for under $200k and there will be plenty more of those in the future. Put a 2000-2500 square foot house at $200/sq ft on these lots and you have a really nice, brand new place for $600-$700k total. That is a very reasonable price for a brand new home compared to even most of the foreclosures.

There have been very few, if any, houses that have sold for less than replacement cost in WS or WC.

At the time when you can grab a 2000-2500 square foot house (not talking about Phase IV) in WS or WC for $500k'ish, then you will clearly be below replacement cost.

 

[melscuba]

Sure you can. Lot prices continue to fall. You can now pick up a few nice lots in WC or WS for under $200k and there will be plenty more of those in the future. Put a 2000-2500 square foot house at $200/sq ft on these lots and you have a really nice, brand new place for $600-$700k total. That is a very reasonable price for a brand new home compared to even most of the foreclosures.

There have been very few, if any, houses that have sold for less than replacement cost in WS or WC.

At the time when you can grab a 2000-2500 square foot house (not talking about Phase IV) in WS or WC for $500k'ish, then you will clearly be below replacement cost.

I agree. At least that is what my husband and I are finding. Just a curious question. Why are existing homes above new home prices? Not that I have lived all over, but I've been in my fair share of towns. This is the only area I have seen existing home sales MORE than building... what gives? My point being, I often hear, "Boy you can't build for that price!" Like it's a deal. Isn't that the way it usually is? An existing home costing less than a new build?

 

[Matt J]

I agree. At least that is what my husband and I are finding. Just a curious question. Why are existing homes above new home prices? Not that I have lived all over, but I've been in my fair share of towns. This is the only area I have seen existing home sales MORE than building... what gives? My point being, I often hear, "Boy you can't build for that price!" Like it's a deal. Isn't that the way it usually is? An existing home costing less than a new build?

They were built during the boom on lots that had been flipped several times and were greatly inflated. Add on top of that the fact that some contractors charged a premium for answering your phone call and you've got tons of people still trying to get out of upside down mortgages.

 

[fisher]

I agree. At least that is what my husband and I are finding. Just a curious question. Why are existing homes above new home prices? Not that I have lived all over, but I've been in my fair share of towns. This is the only area I have seen existing home sales MORE than building... what gives? My point being, I often hear, "Boy you can't build for that price!" Like it's a deal. Isn't that the way it usually is? An existing home costing less than a new build?

Just give it some more time. Reality has taken a while to set in along 30A but it is happening. The trend in prices is still down and there is nothing in the economy as a whole or in the local inventory that would indicate that the trend will trend up any time in the foreseeable future.

 

[Em]

If three months makes a trend, median prices for detached homes sold in South Walton is trending up slightly.

June 2009 -- $395,000
July 2009 -- $406,274
Aug 2009 -- $425,000

Personally, I don' t think three months is enough to make a trend. However, using a 6-month moving average we begin to see a leveling off of median prices for single family detached homes in South Walton according to ECAR. I'll attach a graph.

To your question if sales in WaterColor are driving the market. I would say that WaterColor has shown fairly strong sales during the last 18 months in general. To throw a few numbers at you:

WaterColor Single Family Home Sales YTD (through Sept 3) (again from ECAR)
2008 -- 44 home sales (12% of the 378 home sales in South Walton)
2009 -- 59 home sales ( 13% of the 438 home sales in South Walton)

Hey, did anyone notice that? For 2009, we have seen 60 more detached single family home sales in South Walton compared to 2008, Year to Date. That is a 16% increase in quantity of sales.

 

[fisher]

If three months makes a trend, median prices for detached homes sold in South Walton is trending up slightly.

June 2009 -- $395,000
July 2009 -- $406,274
Aug 2009 -- $425,000

Personally, I don' t think three months is enough to make a trend. However, using a 6-month moving average we begin to see a leveling off of median prices for single family detached homes in South Walton according to ECAR. I'll attach a graph.

To your question if sales in WaterColor are driving the market. I would say that WaterColor has shown fairly strong sales during the last 18 months in general. To throw a few numbers at you:

WaterColor Single Family Home Sales YTD (through Sept 3) (again from ECAR)
2008 -- 44 home sales (12% of the 378 home sales in South Walton)
2009 -- 59 home sales ( 13% of the 438 home sales in South Walton)

Hey, did anyone notice that? For 2009, we have seen 60 more detached single family home sales in South Walton compared to 2008, Year to Date. That is a 16% increase in quantity of sales.

Thanks for the data. Definitely a lot of sales in Watercolor relative to the entire market. Were the Walton County stats pretty accurate directionally for Seaside, Watersound, Alys and Rosemary. Or, were there lots of unrecorded sales in Rosemary and Alys. Basically, it appears that the middle part of 30A--Watercolor and Seaside--are faring well while the eastern end--Alys and Rosemary--are not (Seacrest is faring pretty well at a much lower price point).