Strongest Housing Markets 2014 #6 PCB

[AndrewG]

Housing Markets That Will Be Strongest by 2014 - Yahoo! Real Estate

6. Florida

Biggest home price increase projected in 2014: Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 26.9 percent
Current median price: $158,669*
Prices to reach trough in: 2010 Q3
Median family income: $53,800
Population: 164,770

Home prices in the Panama City area fell about 27 percent after hitting a peak in 2006, according to the FHFA home price index. Jennifer Mackay, an agent at Keller Williams Success Realty in Panama City, says the market was stabilizing earlier this year, but the BP oil spill led some buyers to pull out and sent the rental market into a tailspin. Despite the area?s large number of foreclosures (1.93 percent in the first half, according to RealtyTrac), Mackay says the new Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, which opened in May, should help stimulate local business. "I see our economy doing better than others over the course of the next year," she says. The area's unemployment rate reached 12.1 percent in January and dropped to 9.3 percent in June, according to BLS data.
Index used to calculate historical home price changes: FHFA

 

[passin thru]

Interesting ... note that the increase in values they forecast for us, 27% by 2014, is the same as the 27% decrease in values since 2006.

So by 2014 we may be back at 2006 values. That compares well with the four areas right above us in their rankings ... even though they're projected to see somewhat larger increases than us in the next 4 years, in each case the predicted increase is still smaller than the decline from the 2006 peak.

 

[PJJ]

Not sure if I'd trust local real estate agents to project values 3-4 years out.

 

[Em]

Interesting ... note that the increase in values they forecast for us, 27% by 2014, is the same as the 27% decrease in values since 2006.

So by 2014 we may be back at 2006 values. That compares well with the four areas right above us in their rankings ... even though they're projected to see somewhat larger increases than us in the next 4 years, in each case the predicted increase is still smaller than the decline from the 2006 peak.

Be careful with number games. Remember that if a $100,000 property drops in value by 27%, the value would be $73,000. Then, when it increases in value by 27%, the increase is on a lower number, $73,000, not on the original amount of $100,000. So, when $73,000 increases by 27%, it totals $92,710, which isn't back to the original amount.
*********
The local Realtor who commented, did so on the guess that the local PC/PCB economy will be better by 2014. Who around here doesn't believe that? With JOE pumping so much focus on the West Bay sector, we may see an entirely new town springing forward by that time.

 

[passin thru]

Remember that if a $100,000 property drops in value by 27%, the value would be $73,000. Then, when it increases in value by 27%, the increase is on a lower number, $73,000, not on the original amount of $100,000. So, when $73,000 increases by 27%, it totals $92,710, which isn't back to the original amount.
*********

True dat. Good point, and you're definitely correct on the percentages not working back-and-forth equally.

And, despite my belief that by 4 years from now our economy & market will be much stronger than it is today, my unscientific gut reaction is that it may take longer than 2014 to get back to 2006 value levels.

The average '06 values had arrived there just too rapidly (unrealistically, it turns out) ... and, between oil-spill perceptions and possible double-dip recession, the last few months here show me that our downward price correction might not yet be over.

 

[Em]

Indeed it may take some time for recovery to 2006 prices. However, as always, some people will lose money and some will make money along the way.

Pending sales in SoWal were up 66% in July, compared to June, and that may indicate that buyers who are trying to time the market feel like SoWal has seen the worst of the oil as it relates to real estate values in our area. Interest rates are at record lows and many buyers are sitting on cash and being very selective in their purchases. Many sales are REO (bank owned) and they are selling quickly at prices that are perceived as "bargains" by buyers who have been looking for several years.

 

[NewUrbanGirl]

Indeed it may take some time for recovery to 2006 prices. However, as always, some people will lose money and some will make money along the way.

Ooh, ooh, dibs on being one of the people that make money along the way!

 

[Lisa Ruby]

Ooh, ooh, dibs on being one of the people that make money along the way!

There were six contracts for an REO (bank owned) lot in Grayton last week. The buyers are out there but they want the grayt deals!