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TNJed

Beach Fanatic
Sep 4, 2006
589
118
53
Seagrove Beach, FL
Just to clarify.... I would buy a permanent residence on 30-A if I could. Our home here in Atlanta still sits stagnant on value and likely to drop more. We did not make a foolish decision this go around here in Atlanta... and shook our heads at the ever increasing prices. At the time I remember feeling we were getting left behind while the world surged ahead financially. We now realize it was vapor money people were using. And in truth, I can be a bit superstitious, so suffice to say, I won't mention anything else. However, I think my point may be getting misunderstood. Irrationally driving prices for sheer profit, doesn't make good sense to me in the long run, not as a buyer. As a seller, I guess I would just shake my head and run. While I realize those who owned during the boom, and didn't sell, have suffered terribly, 30-A is not isolated in that event. I think a surge is frightening and signals further instability. A normal, expected growth in a healthy, recovering market, on those price homes would be about $14,000, not $50,000.... IMHO.

In fact, I have a great realtor on 30-A. But that doesn't mean I don't do my own research and make decisions on my own. I wish nothing but the best for Sowal, and hope to call it home one day, as it sure feels like it in my heart. But, I didn't like what I saw, and felt it unjust. Greed doesn't do anybody any good... and when I start to feel like something I love may again be out of reach for me because of it.... well, I guess I'm gonna just stomp my feet and cross my arms.

Like I said before, I'm not looking for a smokin' deal... just one that feels sensible. A $50,000 change in price doesn't feel sensible as a buyer. And before this mess started, I would have asked what was wrong with the house if I saw a $50,000 drop. Now I know what's wrong.... financial crisis. Let me re-iterate.... I'm not a vulture waiting for road kill here. But I don't plan on being the road kill either.

Don't sweat it. The train wreck is not over. In fact, all the problems which caused it in the first place are still there and worse, the TBTF are bigger. The market is not going to leave you behind after the hindsight-bottom with a "V" correction. It will be flat for years. I wouldn't let that stop you from buying a family home, but a second? There are better liquid hard assets out there to park your money in which will appreciate much more during these inflated dollar days.

Patience. This problem was built over decades, it won't be solved in months.
 

lenzoe

Beach Fanatic
You'll never know the market has either bottomed or topped until after the fact. Sometimes well after. I was surprised at the rapid appreciation as well as the rapid depreciation in prices through the years. Before this, I never realized real estate could behave like a stock.

The basic reasons for owning in South Walton have not changed over the years, even as the economics have flipped and flopped. It's still a highly desireable area for many reasons.

My wish would be for more controlled growth out of this mess, but that doesn't mean its going to happen that way. Personally, I think we saw a bottom last year and we'll see growth from there. You may be frustrated at seeing some price bumps, but I assure you it's nowhere near the frustration and anguish of the people who managed to hang on through the downturn have experienced.
 

seagrovegirl

Beach Fanatic
Feb 9, 2008
3,885
454
Historic Old Point Washington
In many instances the asking price is not the sold price. Make an offer of what you think the property is worth based on your study and you may just find yourself under contract. Concentrate on the sold prices and don't put too much into the varying asking prices. Sellers are feeling and testing the market, they don't have a clue either.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
500
28
This price increase makes sense Melscuba, although I understand your frustration with the direction. I believe you mentioned the increase was on lots?

What happenned last week at the St. Joe company, which controls a huge swath of the entitled lot inventory in South Walton, is a huge shift for the marketplace in South Walton. In an instant on Friday, JOE became a company not concerned with quarterly results, and not burdened by executives that were overpaid based on short term results. Now the goal posts have shifted dramatically, to a much longer term patient view of value, probably more aligned with EBSCO Corp, the other larger controller of a block of entitled south walton inventory.

What does this mean? Well in an instant, prices for lots increase. If they don't sell, what it effectively means, is that JOE is happy not "harvesting" them for a few years.. so in that event, they're out of inventory effectively. One of the reasons that lots in South Walton went down 75-95% in value from peak to trough (trough being mostly defined for me as any distress sales in the last 12 months to banks at discounts) was because JOE's lots became the gauge by which others are measured, and it became obvious to the market that the Supply leader, was willing to reduce price drastically. Whereas built homes on lots, went down 40 to 50% in this peak to trough scenario, lots went down much worse. JOE didn't have a huge controlling swing factor inventory of built homes to slash prices on. It basically had building lots.
The 50K price bump in WC is the beginning of a multi-year reversion to mean in values. Values aren't returning to past peak levels anytime, soon, they're just going to bounce back to being off 50% from peak, instead of 85%.

That's all.

This will allow the value of lots in areas in South Walton, outside of Watercolor/Alys/Rosemary to to rise fairly dramatically, but only "dramatic" as seen from the depths of how low they were allowed to sink in a nightmare scenario where the stock market was going to ZERO, JOE was mis-managed for quarterly profit in the worst possible grouping of quarters ever in American history to sell real estate, and the gulf coast was to be covered in oil. Real estate will not regain its former glory for decades, but the stock market has doubled with a "D," and that is more significant for the aspirational South Walton buyer, than it is for anywhere else along the nearby coastal areas. Second, South Walton supply is constrained by State Forests, Choc Bay. Third, this constrained and desirable supply in South Walton has been further constrained this past week by a dramatic and public transformation of JOE, into a more EBSCO like patient entity, that doesn't need firesales to make quarterly numbers any longer, especially given their strong balance sheet with no debt.

All this makes for a tinderbox environment for South Walton in particular, but don't get too excited, values are going to be heading back to "down 50%" from the peak. That's no party for those that bought at higher prices. It's more properly going to be seen as a relief rally.

Cheers Melscuba, I hope that helps, although it may not be what you want to hear right now. I know you'd prefer to hear that lot prices will get even cheaper, that the "85% off" sales aren't going away, anytime soon.

The problem is South Walton isn't now like a Bealls Find a Dot Save a Lot... and part of that is because everyone in Roswell with good taste, is thinking the same way you are, and Orange Beach, or Panama City or Destin, or Hilton Head is no substitute for South Walton.
 
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30ashopper

SoWal Insider
Apr 30, 2008
6,846
3,471
56
Right here!
Don't sweat it. The train wreck is not over. In fact, all the problems which caused it in the first place are still there and worse, the TBTF are bigger. The market is not going to leave you behind after the hindsight-bottom with a "V" correction. It will be flat for years. I wouldn't let that stop you from buying a family home, but a second? There are better liquid hard assets out there to park your money in which will appreciate much more during these inflated dollar days.

Patience. This problem was built over decades, it won't be solved in months.

Good point. The price fluctuations melscuba is seeing are like aftershocks after a major earthquake. There are a lot of desperate people who own and are underwater out there still. Don't get suckered by them.
 
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Bobby J

Beach Fanatic
Apr 18, 2005
4,043
600
Blue Mountain beach
www.lifeonshore.com
Good point. The price fluctuations melscuba is seeing are like aftershocks after a major earthquake. There are a lot of desperate people who own and are underwater out there still. Don't get suckered by them.

I agree 30ashopper. I see many cases where the markets has over adjusted. Especially in land. I sold a lot awhile back for $50,000 that originally sold for $600,000! $600,000 was way too much but $50,000 was way too low IMO. I think we are going to see years of rebound pricing, dropping and raising until we all finally quit talking about what "things" use to sell for. Ultimately, the buyers set the price and it seems they want to buy. I have been back a few days and am amazed at what is happening in Watercolor. I noted a home a day pended last week. Wow.
 

poppy

Banned
Sep 10, 2008
2,854
928
Miramar Beach
Good point. The price fluctuations melscuba is seeing are like aftershocks after a major earthquake. There are a lot of desperate people who own and are underwater out there still. Don't get suckered by them.

Agree, these people raising prices in the spring are desperate and hoping those visiting during the beautiful sunny weather will be as dumb as they were and believe that "now is the time to buy" and do no research.

I agree 30ashopper. I see many cases where the markets has over adjusted. Especially in land. I sold a lot awhile back for $50,000 that originally sold for $600,000! $600,000 was way too much but $50,000 was way too low IMO. I think we are going to see years of rebound pricing, dropping and raising until we all finally quit talking about what "things" use to sell for. Ultimately, the buyers set the price and it seems they want to buy. I have been back a few days and am amazed at what is happening in Watercolor. I noted a home a day pended last week. Wow.

Disagree, if $50,000 was the best offer on the lot after a reasonable time on the market then that would be its true market value. As you state in your post "Ultimately, the buyers set the price".
 

Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,773
I agree with Bobby J's statement above.

Regarding the original post about "gouging," I disagree that you are being gouged. No one is making anyone buy anything at a higher price. Regardless of the asking price, the property will sell for market value if it is an arm's length transaction.

Poppy, I disagree with your statement a little bit. You cannot make blanket statements and expect the full story to be true in all circumstances. Yes, the market sets the price. However, we are in an unusual time, where the majority of these lot sales require cash buyers and the majority of the sales are distressed. Fear pushed the market prices up, and fear pushed them down. Distressed sales are not arm's length transactions. They are what I would call "panic" sales, and in many cases, they are being sold below market value because banks have to clear their books of real estate holdings.

If a buyer can buy at a below market value because he or she has cash waving in front of a seller, the buyer can turn around and sell it for market value. It is business, not gouging. Of course there are no guarantees and the market could drop and that buyer could be pinched instead of making money. One will not know if there is profit or loss until he or she sells.

Often, when buying or selling, people make the mistake of placing value based on what it sold for in the past. In a market that has greatly changed in ten years, that doesn't work.

That said, there are properties which are overpriced, but again, as someone else said, make an offer. If they don't come down to market price, what did it cost you, other than time?

Someone gave you great advice, forget about the listings which are overpriced and won't negotiate to market value. There are plenty. However, the ones which are priced well, will go quickly. Do your homework. Good luck with getting into WaterColor. It is a cool place to be.
 

Kurt

Admin
Staff member
Oct 15, 2004
2,233
4,925
SoWal
mooncreek.com
The state forest is not the only thing on fire around here. I have talked to some realtors lately who are closing a lot of deals.
 

poppy

Banned
Sep 10, 2008
2,854
928
Miramar Beach
I agree with Bobby J's statement above.

Regarding the original post about "gouging," I disagree that you are being gouged. No one is making anyone buy anything at a higher price. Regardless of the asking price, the property will sell for market value if it is an arm's length transaction.

Poppy, I disagree with your statement a little bit. You cannot make blanket statements and expect the full story to be true in all circumstances. Yes, the market sets the price. However, we are in an unusual time, where the majority of these lot sales require cash buyers and the majority of the sales are distressed. Fear pushed the market prices up, and fear pushed them down. Distressed sales are not arm's length transactions. They are what I would call "panic" sales, and in many cases, they are being sold below market value because banks have to clear their books of real estate holdings.

If a buyer can buy at a below market value because he or she has cash waving in front of a seller, the buyer can turn around and sell it for market value. It is business, not gouging. Of course there are no guarantees and the market could drop and that buyer could be pinched instead of making money. One will not know if there is profit or loss until he or she sells.

Often, when buying or selling, people make the mistake of placing value based on what it sold for in the past. In a market that has greatly changed in ten years, that doesn't work.

That said, there are properties which are overpriced, but again, as someone else said, make an offer. If they don't come down to market price, what did it cost you, other than time?

Someone gave you great advice, forget about the listings which are overpriced and won't negotiate to market value. There are plenty. However, the ones which are priced well, will go quickly. Do your homework. Good luck with getting into WaterColor. It is a cool place to be.

I was referring to an arm length transaction, Bobby J didn't indicate any undue influence in the sale but it really doesn't matter. A buyer looking at those lots now will average in the lot Bobby J sold to determine the price they will pay.
 
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