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Kurt

Admin
Staff member
Oct 15, 2004
2,233
4,925
SoWal
mooncreek.com
Midnight. Should arrive around noon on Saturday.

We've been coming to Sowal for years and never had hurricane issues!
I'm afraid midnight Friday is going to be too early to know for sure what's going to happen here. I am nervous over the next 48 hours for us. And heartsick for the Caribbean, Miami and whoever else is in the path.

It's possible that this storm, and weather in general, is becoming a bit too unpredictable but here's my two cents ... I feel that when Irma reaches the peninsula at around Miami's latitude (Sunday AM) and the track is still east of the spine of Florida we should be OK. Even if it moves north from there and were to swerve west to us the intensity would be mitigated by the time it reached us because of it being over land for most of the path from there to here. And the eye would likely pass to the east of us which means we wouldn't get the brunt.

However if a western turn happens below the peninsula with the path to us being mostly over water we could be facing a severe threat.

Another thought is that If our rentals get filled up over the next 2 days with Florida/Georgia/South Carolina evacuees then that would cause problems concerning local resources and evacuations (traffic) from here if the path moves to us.
 

Lake View Too

SoWal Insider
Nov 16, 2008
6,862
8,298
Eastern Lake
Kurt is right. The fact that is still so far away means that it will be moving quickly the next few days and if it moves over the peninsula into the Gulf, and intensifies, (both, big ifs at this time) we wouldn't have a great deal of time to leave. I am probably going to start making preparations on Saturday, but will be watching the maps really really closely. If it did move more further west, we might feel first effects by early Monday, so leaving would be possible and prudent on Sunday. I've been checking the driving time it takes to get to Mobile on Google Maps, all day yesterday, and saw no change in time whatsoever. I'll keep checking today to see if any changes occur from new evacuees on the highways.
 
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Low Brow

Beach Lover
Jan 13, 2014
63
20
..... If our rentals get filled up over the next 2 days with Florida/Georgia/South Carolina evacuees then that would cause problems concerning local resources and evacuations (traffic) from here if the path moves to us.

This is my concern. The mass exodus out of SFLA and the S. East Coast will be congesting our area.

A small shift(100 miles) in this storm to the west will put us in real weather. Because of this, I am getting my place together today so we can get out if need be. If it makes a last minute shift to the west, there wont be any time to prepare other than just head north/west.
 

Kurt

Admin
Staff member
Oct 15, 2004
2,233
4,925
SoWal
mooncreek.com
Walton County Emergency Management Assisting with Sheltering Evacuees for Hurricane Irma – Shelter Opening at Noon, Citizen Information Center Activated



DeFuniak Springs, FL – 10:45AM - At the request of the Florida State Emergency Operations Center and provide services to our fellow Floridians, Walton County Emergency Management has activated the Emergency Operations Center to a Level 2 – Partial Activation to support the opening a host shelter to shelter evacuees fleeing the Florida peninsula. The Citizen Information Center has also been activated.



The Walton County host shelter will begin operation today at 12:00 PM at the following location:



Shelter: Southwide Baptist Church

Address: 1307 Coy Burgess Loop, DeFuniak Springs, FL 32533



In addition to the opening of the shelter, Walton County Emergency Management has activated the Citizen Information Center at the Emergency Operations Center. The Center will be staffed to assist with the distribution of information to Walton County residents, visitors and any evacuees that may arrive in Walton County.



Citizen Information Line: (850) 892-8392 or (850) 892-8394 or you can dial 2-1-1



Currently, for Walton County, we are not expecting any impacts from the storm as Walton County is just outside the 5 day error cone. This could changes however as Hurricane Irma’s track has been trending west based on the last few weather advisories.



Additional Information:



· To receive updates on County actions during a disaster like a hurricane follow our social media accounts.

o Facebook: Walton County Emergency Management (Walton County Emergency Management)

o Twitter: @WaltonCountyEM

o Website: Emergency Management | Walton County, FL - Home Page

o For Florida interstate information: FL511 | Florida Traffic | Commuter Information



· Additional Host Shelters in the Area:

o Santa Rosa County has also opened a host shelter that is located at Christian Life Church, 4491 Avalon Blvd, Milton FL
 

UofL

Beach Fanatic
Jan 21, 2005
693
443
Louisville KY
We are scheduled to start driving Monday. Can cancel our Greenville AL motel stop by 4:00 pm Monday. Tues. am, we planned of course to head south to Seaside. Paid for, of course. (Might get some refund from credit card. Haven't had this happen in 25 plus years of coming to the area.) We are going to finish packing Sunday, as if we are driving Monday - unless there is more certainty by then. Winds/rain could be a issue. Gas could be an issue. Don't want to be part of the problem for a vacation. We might just stay in Louisville for another day or two, but again, gas and other supplies are an issue.
Can't believe the destruction the southern states are experiencing.
So sorry.
Ellen
 

seabythegrove

Beach Fanatic
Nov 16, 2012
479
155
Concerning hurricanes and the Florida panhandle - Looks like Irma will probably not happen here BUT remember it's not if, it's when.
 

Sun Chaser

Beach Lover
Aug 18, 2015
208
89
Miramar Beach
I'm about 10% worried as of now because the modeling and forecasting ability has improved so much. If you all have not discovered Mike's Weather Page... powered by Sparks Energy!, aka "Mike's Weather Page", it is my go-to for analysis. Mike also has a great Facebook page and does live sessions several times per day.

As for predictions, and not to scare people, but just to be aware, this is the prediction map for Ivan at about this time back in 2004. And remember, modeling and predictive ability has much improved since in 14 years.

http://www.greatdreams.com/weather/hurricane-ivan-91004.gif
 

Lake View Too

SoWal Insider
Nov 16, 2008
6,862
8,298
Eastern Lake
That prediction map for Ivan shows that, in that time frame, we and Pensacola were well inside the cone of possibility, so, in that respect, that map was completely "accurate". Pinpointing landfall 5 days out isn't feasible.
 
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