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Bac

Beach Lover
Jan 30, 2013
151
25
OK, OK

So, College Bowl season is upon us...and there are 40 of them.

A simple “ confidence pool” would require that one assigns a “ value” to their “confidence” among all 40 games’ outcomes, with a value of “ 40” assigned to the team you believe most likely WILL OUTRIGHT WIN THEIR BOWL GAME, and moving on down the ladder, one will end up having to chose among all 40
games , in advance of 12/15 , with a point value of descending amount....which will express that person’s belief in their respective opinion as to which team will emerge the victor of each and every bowl game

Example A:

40- Alabama
39- Ohio State
38- SanDiego State
37- Georgia Tech

Etc, etc...( all the way down to ...)

2- Toledo
1- Hawaii



Example B:

(A bit more complicated...)

Rank the same games by which team one believes will most likely “ cover the spread” ...win or lose...for all 40 games

- we did this for about 3 games each week during the regular season...now one only has to do it for all 40, in advance...

Easier said, than done...

( just an example here)

40- Wake Forest + 5
39- Cincinnati -5
38- Alcorn State + 7-1/2

Etc, etc....(all the way down to )

2- Troy +2-1/2
1- California PK’em

This requires a bit more effort than just picking which team will win their games...In this example...anybody chose Wake Forest +5 as #40 , and they infact cover that spread, they get 40 points!

- Somebody else chooses Wake +5, say...as their 13th most confident pick, they get 13 points.

- or, somebody chooses Memphis -5, say...as their 28th most confident pick, and Memphis “ covers the spread” and Memphis wins by at least 6 points, they get 28 points, and anybody chose Wake Forest +5 ( for that game) gets 0 points...

- A score of , say...33-28 means nobody gets any points for that game , beacuse that would be considered a TIE



Still transparent...still an NCAAFB game-picking“ contest”

(A) or (B).....regular tracking of the games, add up the poins over each week’s games...or the bowl games...MOST POINTS WINS!

BTW,
there is absolutely NO GAMBLING,
NO MONEY,
NOTHING ILLEGAL
involved in a “ confidence pool”, vs. a straight “ pick the winner “ of each game challenge!

It’s no different than picking who will gain the most yards in a game,
which QB will have a higher completion percentage,
Or even, who will win the coin toss,

..............whatever(!?)

It is still all-for-fun, just generally requires a longer spell with the thinking cap on...and a bit more record keeping...

BUT THE EXCITEMENT STAYS WITH THE POOL , and PLAYERS FOR THE WHOLE YEAR...because like a horse race, every horse has at least some chance all the way until the end of the race...and each week, the lead can change hands...


PS- I am not advocating we must do this for this years bowl games, or that we couldn’t wait until next year to implement for each week ( like 15 games will require a ranking of 15, 14, 13....2,1 = a total possible score of 120 points)

- Say , for example, that BW and Skunky tie for 10 wins that week...a confidence pool could mean BW might could get 105 points, and Skunkape only got 55 !!)...But-they both had 10 wins that week...

- Moreover, Kurt only picked the spread on 6 games correctly, but he ends up with 62 points !


So, most “ pick’em contests” involve some version of a confidence pool, and pretty sure is more likely to garner more interest from more players...because they are used to this methodology...and thinking they have a more “ vested interest” in making their picks...

( plenty of stuff one can “ research” re: sports confidence pools


In the meantime, on to the Bowl season!


Kevin Achatz
Mkyle8385@gmail.com
850-687-3128
 

Lady D

SoWal Insider
Jun 21, 2005
6,165
193
64
Memphis, Tennessee, United States
OK, OK

So, College Bowl season is upon us...and there are 40 of them.

A simple “ confidence pool” would require that one assigns a “ value” to their “confidence” among all 40 games’ outcomes, with a value of “ 40” assigned to the team you believe most likely WILL OUTRIGHT WIN THEIR BOWL GAME, and moving on down the ladder, one will end up having to chose among all 40
games , in advance of 12/15 , with a point value of descending amount....which will express that person’s belief in their respective opinion as to which team will emerge the victor of each and every bowl game

Example A:

40- Alabama
39- Ohio State
38- SanDiego State
37- Georgia Tech

Etc, etc...( all the way down to ...)

2- Toledo
1- Hawaii



Example B:

(A bit more complicated...)

Rank the same games by which team one believes will most likely “ cover the spread” ...win or lose...for all 40 games

- we did this for about 3 games each week during the regular season...now one only has to do it for all 40, in advance...

Easier said, than done...

( just an example here)

40- Wake Forest + 5
39- Cincinnati -5
38- Alcorn State + 7-1/2

Etc, etc....(all the way down to )

2- Troy +2-1/2
1- California PK’em

This requires a bit more effort than just picking which team will win their games...In this example...anybody chose Wake Forest +5 as #40 , and they infact cover that spread, they get 40 points!

- Somebody else chooses Wake +5, say...as their 13th most confident pick, they get 13 points.

- or, somebody chooses Memphis -5, say...as their 28th most confident pick, and Memphis “ covers the spread” and Memphis wins by at least 6 points, they get 28 points, and anybody chose Wake Forest +5 ( for that game) gets 0 points...

- A score of , say...33-28 means nobody gets any points for that game , beacuse that would be considered a TIE



Still transparent...still an NCAAFB game-picking“ contest”

(A) or (B).....regular tracking of the games, add up the poins over each week’s games...or the bowl games...MOST POINTS WINS!

BTW,
there is absolutely NO GAMBLING,
NO MONEY,
NOTHING ILLEGAL
involved in a “ confidence pool”, vs. a straight “ pick the winner “ of each game challenge!

It’s no different than picking who will gain the most yards in a game,
which QB will have a higher completion percentage,
Or even, who will win the coin toss,

..............whatever(!?)

It is still all-for-fun, just generally requires a longer spell with the thinking cap on...and a bit more record keeping...

BUT THE EXCITEMENT STAYS WITH THE POOL , and PLAYERS FOR THE WHOLE YEAR...because like a horse race, every horse has at least some chance all the way until the end of the race...and each week, the lead can change hands...


PS- I am not advocating we must do this for this years bowl games, or that we couldn’t wait until next year to implement for each week ( like 15 games will require a ranking of 15, 14, 13....2,1 = a total possible score of 120 points)

- Say , for example, that BW and Skunky tie for 10 wins that week...a confidence pool could mean BW might could get 105 points, and Skunkape only got 55 !!)...But-they both had 10 wins that week...

- Moreover, Kurt only picked the spread on 6 games correctly, but he ends up with 62 points !


So, most “ pick’em contests” involve some version of a confidence pool, and pretty sure is more likely to garner more interest from more players...because they are used to this methodology...and thinking they have a more “ vested interest” in making their picks...

( plenty of stuff one can “ research” re: sports confidence pools


In the meantime, on to the Bowl season!


Kevin Achatz
Mkyle8385@gmail.com
850-687-3128

This is a little over my head. Just want the pick'em to stay the way it is along with the bowl picks.
 

cnestg8r

Beach Fanatic
Nov 17, 2004
862
286
Perhaps it makes sense to create a new thread for confidence picking. Leave Skunky's as is and has been. Each participant can choose either one or both. If the confidence schema builds a larger group of participants as advertised, that would be terrific. We don't need to burn the bridge that brought us together (although declining).

I have done some analysis that shows our individual handicap is picking who we want to win vs who is favored to win.

For what it is worth...
 

Bob Wells

Beach Fanatic
Jul 25, 2008
3,380
2,857
cnestgr8 said
I have done some analysis that shows our individual handicapis picking who we want to win vs who is favored to win.

GOT ME! I tried it the other way, looking at betting sites looking for the win. Gave up half way through the season. Less stress just picking.
Bob "middle of the pack" Wells
 

Bac

Beach Lover
Jan 30, 2013
151
25
Games starting in a few hours..so will pick them all...

NCAT
Utah State
TUlane
AZ State
GSouthern
mid Ten State
Northern Illinois
Ohio
Marshall ( we are!)
FIU
BYU
Memphis
Houston
Buffalo
Hawaii ( home cooking!)
Boston College
Minnesota
TCU ( CheezLouise!)
Duke
Wisconsin
Baylor
Purdue
West Virginia
WashState
Michigan!!!
Virginia
Nevada
Oregon
C.I.N.C.I.N.N.A.T.I.
Missouri
Northwestern
Texas A&M
Pittsburgh
IOWA
PennState
LSU
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Clemson
 

cnestg8r

Beach Fanatic
Nov 17, 2004
862
286
Here are 42 bowls (excluding Jan 7 Championship) in chronological order...
Good Luck, Merry Christmas and Happy 2019!


South Dakota St vs North Dakota St
Alcorn St vs North Carolina AT
Tulane vs Louisiana-Lafayette
North Texas vs Utah St
Maine vs Eastern Washington
Arizona St vs Fresno St
Eastern Michigan vs Georgia Southern
Middle Tennessee St. vs Appalachian St
Northern Illinois vs UAB
Ohio vs San Diego St
Marshall vs South Florida
Florida Intl vs Toledo
BYU vs Western Michigan
Wake Forest vs Memphis
Houston vs Army
SUNY-Buffalo vs Troy
Louisiana Tech vs Hawaii
Boston College vs Boise St
Minnesota vs Georgia Tech
Texas Christian vs California
Duke vs Temple
Miami (FL) vs Wisconsin
Vanderbilt vs Baylor
Auburn vs Purdue
Syracuse vs West Virginia
Iowa St vs Washington St
Florida vs Michigan
South Carolina vs Virginia
Arkansas St vs Nevada
Notre Dame vs Clemson
Oklahoma vs Alabama
Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati
Pittsburgh vs Stanford
Michigan St vs Oregon
Missouri vs Oklahoma St
Northwestern vs Utah
North Carolina St vs Texas AM
Iowa vs Mississippi St
LSU vs Central Florida
Kentucky vs Penn St
Washington vs Ohio St
Texas vs Georgia
 
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