SJ,
Thanks for the post. This is great information. We have one of the 2600 lots currently on the market in SoWal and are trying to decide if we should have a fire sale, or try to hold and build. Problem is that, like many in the area, we never intended to build and should have gotten out while the getting was good. On the flip side, however, we love the area and would love to build and keep it. We are in Rosemary, and are fortunate enough to have a break-ground date in July of 2008 - so we have time. Also working in our favor is the fact that we didn't overextend to buy the lot itself.
The question becomes when to build - and I would love to hear some opinions. There are a few factors - one is the current building costs. Obviously, they are high right now and I think we'd end up paying somewhere around $300/sq ft to build today. What will the building costs look like in 18 months? More or less?
The other factor is the rising interest rate. The longer we wait to finance a construction loan, the more we are likely to pay. So are we better off doing it now and paying lower interest and higher overall cost - or waiting in hopes that construction prices fall as building slows in the area (which I think will happen given the current market) and pay a higher rate?
Of course, we could wait and watch both building costs and interest rates rise - that wouldn't be fun.
Or - we could have a fire sale and hope that we are one of the lucky 1% of lots that get a contract...
Thoughts?