That was all the "data" we needed to gather - to make our decision to exit the market.
This is a guess, but I would be willing to wager that 85% (very rough guess I admit) of the people posting in this Real Estate Forum, have a vested interest in real estate; It is understandable therefore that this Skier poster is getting a lot of flak for his posts, b/c this board is decidely currently "invested" in South Walton, one way or the other. That said, it seems that Skier has posted a great deal of negative leaning posts on real estate market in South Walton, and unfortunately it appears to me that what seems almost like his wish, is just starting to come to fruition over the last 2 months or so. I can understand why people are so defensive towards his posts however, preferring that he "be happy" and visit the lounge. Perhaps it is they who should be happy and visit the lounge or the general info boards - as this board I think (perhaps incorrectly) was designed for exactly this kind of debate - which I must say is a natural debate given the incredible rise in valuations over the last 7 years, and in particular in 2003 until very early in 2005.
To me, this debate has taken on national attention, leading almost to a self fullfilling prophecy of sorts, as buyers begin to back away from hot markets, and speculators begin to exit. It is a huge game of psychology being played out. When you watch CNBC, they bring on experts everyday to debate the issue, but more and more, the "expert" representing the bull case in real estate, is someone like the president of the National Association of Realtors (again someone unlikely to spot a bubble, or EVER predict a decline in valuations - even though we all know that it has happenned again and again throughout history, from Florida's land boom/bust, Japan's 12 year straight line decline since 1993, and previous burstings in commercial and residential real estate too numerous to mention such as those that have taken place in NYC in the past couple decades)
I happen to agree with Skier completely (and have recently taken action a couple of months ago to get out - seems a bit odd that Skier is predicting gloom but does not sell, but perhaps he is so well heeled he doesn't care that valuations could back off to 2002 levels (i.e. down 85% from current, but up 120% from 1995)
However, I will concede at least to this heavily "invested" message board community that my decision to sell was a gut feel guess, and I can't be certain that valuations don't go higher for the next 10 years as boomers retire - if that transpires then I will have made a sizeable mistake although I feel it is hard to go wrong taking a 400% gain (actually much larger return on equity) in my case. If I had not recently sold my place in March at full asking price (by owner I should add (hopefully not to the horror of all the agents patrolling these boards)) I would be equally miffed at Skier's posts, and inclined to reply with the standard mantra - unique beautiful beach, height restrictions, PCB Airport, Boomer demographics etc etc etc.... in the hope that I could head off any impending dimunition in MY valuation... it's only human
Good luck if you're invested currently as I suspect the vast majority of those visiting this board are... I truly hope that the most bullish predictions come true for you, even though I won't be participating in any prospective runup from here.
This is a guess, but I would be willing to wager that 85% (very rough guess I admit) of the people posting in this Real Estate Forum, have a vested interest in real estate; It is understandable therefore that this Skier poster is getting a lot of flak for his posts, b/c this board is decidely currently "invested" in South Walton, one way or the other. That said, it seems that Skier has posted a great deal of negative leaning posts on real estate market in South Walton, and unfortunately it appears to me that what seems almost like his wish, is just starting to come to fruition over the last 2 months or so. I can understand why people are so defensive towards his posts however, preferring that he "be happy" and visit the lounge. Perhaps it is they who should be happy and visit the lounge or the general info boards - as this board I think (perhaps incorrectly) was designed for exactly this kind of debate - which I must say is a natural debate given the incredible rise in valuations over the last 7 years, and in particular in 2003 until very early in 2005.
To me, this debate has taken on national attention, leading almost to a self fullfilling prophecy of sorts, as buyers begin to back away from hot markets, and speculators begin to exit. It is a huge game of psychology being played out. When you watch CNBC, they bring on experts everyday to debate the issue, but more and more, the "expert" representing the bull case in real estate, is someone like the president of the National Association of Realtors (again someone unlikely to spot a bubble, or EVER predict a decline in valuations - even though we all know that it has happenned again and again throughout history, from Florida's land boom/bust, Japan's 12 year straight line decline since 1993, and previous burstings in commercial and residential real estate too numerous to mention such as those that have taken place in NYC in the past couple decades)
I happen to agree with Skier completely (and have recently taken action a couple of months ago to get out - seems a bit odd that Skier is predicting gloom but does not sell, but perhaps he is so well heeled he doesn't care that valuations could back off to 2002 levels (i.e. down 85% from current, but up 120% from 1995)
However, I will concede at least to this heavily "invested" message board community that my decision to sell was a gut feel guess, and I can't be certain that valuations don't go higher for the next 10 years as boomers retire - if that transpires then I will have made a sizeable mistake although I feel it is hard to go wrong taking a 400% gain (actually much larger return on equity) in my case. If I had not recently sold my place in March at full asking price (by owner I should add (hopefully not to the horror of all the agents patrolling these boards)) I would be equally miffed at Skier's posts, and inclined to reply with the standard mantra - unique beautiful beach, height restrictions, PCB Airport, Boomer demographics etc etc etc.... in the hope that I could head off any impending dimunition in MY valuation... it's only human
Good luck if you're invested currently as I suspect the vast majority of those visiting this board are... I truly hope that the most bullish predictions come true for you, even though I won't be participating in any prospective runup from here.