Ariel Dunes II Pre-construction...

[SHELLY]

I'll let you know in six months. I doubt we'll get it with an assignment, but fortunately I don't need to sell. We'll get that figure but, it may be in 2 - 3 years.

It's a good thing you don't need to sell...you'd have far too much competition from those who DO need to sell to keep from being eaten alive by increasing interest rates, taxes, insurance and association/management fees. Between "investor" selling on one end (there are lots of panhandle condos flooding the market now and more to come in the Spring), developers throwing up more condos on the other end and "vulture capitalists" getting ready to pick the bones of "in too deep" speculators in the middle, I think the days of double-digit appreciation rates are pretty much history. (33% annual appreciation @ 2 years or 22% annual appreciation @ 3 years might be a bit too ambitious)

 

[SHELLY]

I can't imagine doing another preconstruction in this market. No way would I do it.

Maybe you won't do it...but the developers are still throwing condos up and they are still pulling in the ever-dwindling number of "fools."

Florida is predicting a slower tourist season this summer and the weather service is predicting a very active hurricane season. These two things combined, along with a tightening money supply, decreasing exotic lending products, increasing insurance/taxes, increasing HOA/property management fees, and flooding of the condo market by speculators desperate to dump their properties will, IMO, signal the beginning of the end for the "Era of the Pre-Construction Condos for Fun and Profit" in Florida.

 

[Just_In_Thyme]

Where did you see that Fl. is predicitng a slower than usual tourist season?
Is anyone seeing a slowdown in bookings for their properties for 2006??

 

[beachmouse]

Reports/predictions I've seen for tourist season 2006 expect moderate increases statewide.

 

[SHELLY]

Where did you see that Fl. is predicitng a slower than usual tourist season?
Is anyone seeing a slowdown in bookings for their properties for 2006??

FLORIDA TOURISM 2006

 

[Just_In_Thyme]

Thanks for the link.

It states they are predicting a 3.2 % increase in visitors in 2006. Higher than the 2% increase expected in visits to the US, but substantially lower than 7% increase in Fl tourism between 2003 and 2004.

I guess it is all how you interpret it. Fl. will see an increase in visitors, just not as much as in previous years. Maybe that means our beaches will be a little less crowded this summer. That would be fine w/me.

 

[SHELLY]

Thanks for the link.
I guess it is all how you interpret it. Fl. will see an increase in visitors, just not as much as in previous years. Maybe that means our beaches will be a little less crowded this summer. That would be fine w/me.

Me too!

 

[WiLe]

Why don't you read your link? A 3.2% INCREASE is not a "slower" tourist season. The first three months of 2005 was the most lucrative quarter in Orlando tourism history - and that's coming off the 4 hurricanes of 2004. Your MO pretty much comes down to throwing as much crap as you can think of against the wall and hope some of sticks.

From my perspective it is you who is following the herd. The herd is not screaming "buy real estate." The reverse is true. It appears that you get your jollies by laughing at the fools who bought at the top. History shows that unless those "fools" are overleveraged, it is they who will be having the last laugh. Regarding PRIME real estate, what looks high today will look cheap down the road. The coast between Gulf Shores and Carabelle 10 - 15 years out bears no resemblence to what it looks like today. I'm sure that pains you, but fact is a lot of fortunes are going to be made.

According to your logic, the intelligent investor goes in and out of markets at just the right time, taking profits and leaving the all the fools behind to drown in debt. Fact is, while there are some people who bought at the top of the last peak and won't be able to hold on, there are probably many more that bought when prices were dramatically lower and are either sitting on or locked in huge profits. Some of those people no doubt threw some of those profits into more property at the "peak." So what else is new? From my experience, the real losers are the people who sit on the side lines and pooh-pooh the doers.

Developers are continuing on doing what they do because they have learned to look beyond their noses. Its ridiculous to believe that the Gulf coast is "over." When the last piece of property is developed to its highest and best use for the foreseeable future, then it will be over.

I'd be interested in hearing what you have actually done, beyond observing and commenting?

Edit: I see that the 3.2% increase was addressed while I was typing. I'll leave my post up anyway.

 

[Unplugged]

Why don't you read your link? A 3.2% INCREASE is not a "slower" tourist season. The first three months of 2005 was the most lucrative quarter in Orlando tourism history - and that's coming off the 4 hurricanes of 2004. Your MO pretty much comes down to throwing as much crap as you can think of against the wall and hope some of sticks.

From my perspective it is you who is following the herd. The herd is not screaming "buy real estate." The reverse is true. It appears that you get your jollies by laughing at the fools who bought at the top. History shows that unless those "fools" are overleveraged, it is they who will be having the last laugh. Regarding PRIME real estate, what looks high today will look cheap down the road. The coast between Gulf Shores and Carabelle 10 - 15 years out bears no resemblence to what it looks like today. I'm sure that pains you, but fact is a lot of fortunes are going to be made.

According to your logic, the intelligent investor goes in and out of markets at just the right time, taking profits and leaving the all the fools behind to drown in debt. Fact is, while there are some people who bought at the top of the last peak and won't be able to hold on, there are probably many more that bought when prices were dramatically lower and are either sitting on or locked in huge profits. Some of those people no doubt threw some of those profits into more property at the "peak." So what else is new? From my experience, the real losers are the people who sit on the side lines and pooh-pooh the doers.

Developers are continuing on doing what they do because they have learned to look beyond their noses. Its ridiculous to believe that the Gulf coast is "over." When the last piece of property is developed to its highest and best use for the foreseeable future, then it will be over.

I'd be interested in hearing what you have actually done, beyond observing and commenting?

Edit: I see that the 3.2% increase was addressed while I was typing. I'll leave my post up anyway.

Well said WiLe - I think many of us echo your sentiments...

 

[Smiling JOe]

I agree, WiLe -- Well stated. A 3.2% increase in tourism doesn't mean less people on the beach. With time, the people buying at the peaks will be sitting pretty in the future. It is not timing the market that pays, it is time in the market.