I agree that sellers selling under the current conditions (as well as buyers buying)
are the market.
But it seems that a lot of people want to take these bottom of the barrel sales and say that they represent the current market while ignoring that there are other sales at more reasonable (non-distressed) prices that may represent the market more accurately. These other sales don't get reported and discussed on this board because they are not "sensational" enough.
For example,
this home just sold for $1,925,000... after selling earlier in the year for $1,700,000. It's on busy Western Lake Drive. The seller bought it in the summer, but decided he needed more room for his car collection, so he decided to sell it again. And he sold it quickly for $225,000 more than he had just paid for it.
Now pardon me while I again use the example of the property on Scrub Oak which sold recently by a builder (or attorney) or whoever... that so many
hope represents current market value.
No reasonable person on this board could argue (with a straight face) that this property is representative of "the market." Everyone agrees that it probably cost a bunch of $$$ to construct this house. And if you factor in the lot cost, plus architect costs and the 6 months of interest and overhead to get your plans approved through WaterColor, plus interest for another 12 months or so while it's being built, plus interest while it sits on the market waiting to sell... this property sold for less than cost.
Obviously, this level of discount (below cost) are anomalies... and not market. Someone got one helluva deal. And buyers would be lining up in droves to buy another deal just like it. I would have bought it myself if I'd had the opportunity!
(As an aside, I would submit that if this seller could have held out for another 30 or 60 days, he could have easily sold for $100,000 or $200,000 more... and
still be selling at a distress price. Perhaps there was a need to close this sale before the end of the year? For tax purposes? Or perhaps he had some other pressing reason to sell. But he could have sold for more if he could have held on).
The fact that others are saying... "find one like that for me!"... demonstrates that this sale was below market.
Anyone who believes that these distress sales represent the current market value should be able to easily locate other sellers willing to sell at this value too!
And if this is the case, then I would submit to you that you've just timed the market perfectly. We are at bottom! (Because the market doesn't work when you can buy for less than cost). Start buying because it's not going to get any better than this!