Appalach,
I am in total agreement regarding the drop that has occurred. I've been slammed with committments but would be happy to run some numbers after Sunday. Might sound odd, but I look at these listings every day and I run a lot of comps for clients so I generally have a pretty good gut feel. I've also run the drop averages at various times but can't readily get my fingers on them so I'm relying on my rapidily aging memory.
I had previously graphed the monthly sales from ECAR on areas 17 & 18 and would have to
disagree with the peak being late 2006. In fact 2 significant drops in the number of sales occurred in 2005 (one drop in 4/2005 and then a much larger drop if I remember in 7/2005). From thereafter, it was clear that we were on a downtrend. That's when auctions became popular as a desperate attempt to sell property that had been on the market 8-9-10 months etc. which was rare in the boom. So my opinion is that the peak hit 1st quarter 2005 only many people didn't know it for a year after it peaked.
Secondly, I have to agree that
prices have dropped much more than 23.8%. I believe it's closer to 50% of asking prices in some areas. IMHO "average" numbers can be misleading and the
price drops are not uniform across homes, condos & land. Nor is the drop uniform across the various communities on 30a. There are some projects that are actually selling around or close to 2005 prices and then there are others that are selling 60% below 2005. The amenities, physical location etc, all have an effect on the demand for a community which ultimately affects how much home prices drop. Also the financial class of the previous buyers seems to affect how motivated they were to sell and how far they went down to get out.
So when they say 28% drop in values, this may be applicable to select areas but it certainly won't be representative of all of our situations.
I need to write a blog article anyway so I'll use this topic to put together some numbers and observations based on a current analysis of the stats.
I remember when that Money article came out too. Everybody was using it to try to stimulate their business because things had already slowed pretty bad. I really did then and still believe that the area is one of top places to invest in the US because of the airport and the implications for growth, exposure and diversity.
Aside from armageddon, 2013 and the Illuminati acheiving their goal of world depopulation - real estate WILL go up again. The only question is WHEN
and that can be a HUGE window of speculation depending on all sorts of world economic events and political moves.
What I can say is something that I'm just observing. It seems that the bottom in our area may be
nearing. I'm not seeing prices increase but what I am seeing is less of a pricedrop in asking prices, (if that makes any sense). We were previously seeing large drops when sellers dropped their list price to try to get some attention. Now, they are dropping the list price but in much smaller increments. They seem to be moving quicker too. Twice in the last month, clients wanted to put a contract on properties which went pending before they could get into town to see the property. I'm certainly not recommending that anyone "jump" on a property without all the facts they need to make a wise choice and I believe that there will continue to be "bargains" for some time but it does appear to be a great time to buy. Also, there's always the possibility of some further economic crisis or an onslaught of REO's becoming available due to imminent foreclosures. So any sort of "prediction" is merely an opinion and there's too many factors for anyone to
accurately predict when we will be back to where we were.
As you put it, I'm cautiously optomistic. I am optimist in ALL areas of my life. Though I am filled with compassion for the people that I've met who's lives have been destroyed by this economy, I'm also thankful every day for what I have and that many people are making it through this terrible time in history. I make it a point to remember every day that this is just "stuff" and I'd give it all up to save a loved one. For whatever reasons, there are people that persistently see life from the "cup empty" perspective and have always got to have something bad to focus on. Hopefully your positive spirit will impact some in a positive way so don't apologize.
Give me a little time on those numbers and have a great Easter.
[TE=appalach;657277]Cork,
I don't have data to back it up, but anecdotally, I'm sure a lot of us would agree with you about the drop being greater than 23.8%.
I guess Business 2.0 Magazine's prediction that CNN Money reported was a little off...
Top 10 cities: Where to buy now | 1 | Business 2.0
This newest CNN Money assessment reported that the peak was Q4 2006 for PCity. The link in this post was related to a ranking reportedly done in 11/06.
I remember reading the 2006 article when it came out, and even knowing to choke it down with a pound of salt, thought wouldn't that be great if it was even remotely close to being correct.
Not trying to be a downer...actually, just the opposite. The memory of that old prediction in the context of today's reality was just an obvious reminder about the fallibility of predictions.
Here's to some cautious optimism and hoping that things improve for everyone...be it home prices, sales, employment, personal finance, health, friendships...heck, while I'm at it...your team winning, sunny beach day, great dinner...
Just as too few in 2006 would have believed the current market conditions, wouldn't it be nice to look back in 2014 and to be pleasantly surprised?
Anyway, just trying to put a little positivity out there, though I fear some disgruntled political board posters may want come to stomp a mud hole in my...hey, now I'm in the predicting business!
Have a great day everyone![/QUOTE]
