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iwishiwasthere

Beach Fanatic
Jul 12, 2005
2,875
36
Tennessee
I think what surprises (and seems to bother) some people on this board is that many people can love a place and feel good regardless of what the market is doing.
__________________
Paula


:clap_1: Well said.
 

Cork On the Ocean

directionally challenged
Get the popcorn out Joe. :lol:

Tyler, There's no intent to attack anyone as you are doing. First point was that using list prices is not the indicia that value is based on. Do you disagree with that point?

The article that Shelly linked was interesting and certainly a consideration but it relates to the overall market in the US and one investor moving his holdings to casinos which are still real estate holdings. I never said that the market is booming in the US and wouldn't because frankly I don't know that much about every market in the US.

A quick search on the same magazine produced other articles related specifically to the Florida market and more specifically the Florida Panhandle.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2005/10/17/8358067/index.htm


All realtors are worried and sales have fallen dramatically. I know and am close friends with several reputable realtors who have seen their commissions plummet - decline by triple digits over the same time last year.

No Tyler, you don't know. Not all realtors are worried. Being reputable doesn't equate to success in today's world. Many reputable realtors believe that they can be sucessful using yesterday's approaches. The fact is that the internet has forever changed their profession beyond their ability to comprehend. The last couple of years when they were making triple digits, customers were basically flopping into their laps. Now they have to work harder. The average realtor's lack of technological acumen severely impacts their ability to be successful today. While 86% of realtors have websites, only 12% of them get 25% or more of their business from it. The average realtor is at the mercy of a bevy of webmasters, software distibutors, marketing services and even the search engines promising an effective internet presence and it's just not that easy. The cost of internet promotion will become cost prohibited for many realtors as the online competition gets stiffer and with the number of sales as low as they are, they are going to continue to have a very difficult time.

right now and at least several, several months and possible a few years to come, there's little money or return to be made here.

If you expect to make money in several months, that's why people are in trouble. If you read my post carefully, you will note that I sited the ability to be flexible and adapt to the environment as an important factor to success in investing. Regarding South Walton, I have maintained on many threads that many people can no longer afford 30A and despite many peoples' hope that it will become affordable again, I think those days are gone forever. When you say there's little money to be made "here", if you are speaking of the Beaches of South Walton, I would tend to agree with you. If you read my post in the manner in which it was intended, you will also note that I said that I'm looking towards affordable housing on longterm rentals - that's not 30A.

Today I was working with a client who purchased about 9 acres in Callaway slightly over a year ago for $495K which is surrounded by 5000 acres owned by JOE . There have been 11 sales in the last year along a 3-5 mile stretch that comp it out at about $1.1-$1.2 million. We're also looking into whether he'd be wiser to put in streets and parcel it out into the 15 units/acre allowed and sell them for $100K-200K each depending on the amenities he'd put in. That's $13 -27 million dollars less expenses on a $495K investment just about a year ago. Open minded and flexible people are making money in this market. They didn't get stars in their eyes about Watercolor or Alys beach. They make sound business decisions based on what they saw, not what they were told.

You can't spin the facts,

There are no spins here. Only people that have their minds made up. Maybe they own, maybe they don't even own here. You're assaulting me and telling me to forget what I see and trust someone that I don't even know, that apparently isn't making money (perhaps losing it), or possibly hasn't even invested in this market?

Tony Robbins, (a very positive person) and mentor to many successful people says that if you continue to do the same things you've been doing, expect to get the same results. And yes, Paula, isn't it great to feel good. :lol:
 

dsilvar

Beach Fanatic
Jan 12, 2006
307
0
66
Miramar beach
SHELLY said:


The problem is that there are too many prognosticators on this board!!
You can spin things any way you want, or buy casinos instead of residential real estate, or cry chicken all day long, but the fact is NONE of you really know what the market will be like tomorrow or next year. You can guess, but guessing requires you to consider so many variables that no human mind can crunch them all and make real sense.
Shelly is a prime example of this. Her ability to collect skewed variables that make sense to her, crunch them and spit out an opinion is flawed.
Show me a prediction model that uses ALL the market variables..positive and negative...the fact that the baby boomer crowd is just starting to retire en masse, geographic market price differential, the long history of real estate returns, and all of Shelly's negative variables, and those of Cork's and you will then begin to come close to some kind of prediction of what the real estate market will do in SoWal..just my humble opinion.
Market mechanics are what they are..a giant wave we are all riding. Its your skill that will keep you on top of that wave all the way in or if you don?t know what you are doing, its WIPE OUT time.
Me..my Florida investments are all paid for..carrying costs are a small gamble.
 
Today the St. Louis Fed President, William Poole said there is no housing bubble and the market should remain strong in 2006.

Poole said it's nearly impossible to forecast a price bubble.
"Indeed, given that bubbles always burst - if there is no burst there was no bubble - clear advance evidence of a bubble can never exist," Pool said. "If the evidence was clear, then everyone would know about the bubble and forthcoming burst, but then the buying that created the bubble would never occur in the first place," Poole said.
"So if you have an academic interest in house prices, I recommend that you wait a few years. If you have a direct financial interest, I can't help much - you're on your own," he said.
Poole said he did expect "some slowing in the growth of average home price nationally."
But Poole dismissed fears of a nationwide housing bubble.

You can go to www.marketwatch.com for more
 

OnMackBayou

Beach Lover
May 15, 2005
227
0
Mack Bayou, Sandestin
I have several homes here in South Walton. One was bought last summer in a neighborhood of 50 homes, at the end of the great run up in appreciation, so people say. Several months ago a home with the same floor plan sold for $100,000.00 more than I paid. Another home with a slightly smaller floor plan just went on the market for $200,000.00 more than I paid 8 months ago, (which represents about a 45% jump from what I paid), and I believe there was an offer made within several % of the asking price.

I realize this information is only anecdotal, but it is what is happening to some people besides me, such as all of my neighbors who are seeing their values continue to soar.

Personally, I feel bad for someone trying to buy here now. So many people love this area, but are probably confused and unsure about what is going to happen. When people look for real estate, even when there is a huge amount of inventory, they usually find only one or two properties they really, really want. When the emotions kick in and you're ready to make an offer, do you low ball it? That would be the temptation now I guess. Problem is you may be lowballing someone who isn't motivated to sell low. Then what do you do? Wait? How long?

To anyone wanting to buy because you love the area, good luck. Maybe waiting is the answer. Maybe not.
 

goofer

Beach Fanatic
Feb 21, 2005
1,165
191
real estate investing is more of a science than an art, when compared to stock market investing. it is easier to compare relative value in real estate as opposed to relative value in stocks, imo. with stocks so much of the equation is is tied to human emotion. i realize many of you will say the same about real estate but i think because of the issue of liquidity, it is much easier to be emotional about stocks than a hard asset like real estate which is illiquid. when one sees prices of stocks dancing around EVERY DAY, it is easier to get caught up in the emotions of the moment ( example is tech bubble of 2000 ) in real estate investing one needs patience, composure, and perspective. if one does there homework and keeps their wits about them, they will invariably find a home or a lot that makes economic sense. there is ALWAYS a motivated seller in the marketplace and a patch of ground that gets overlooked.
 

Cork On the Ocean

directionally challenged
Just_In_Thyme said:
Today the St. Louis Fed President, William Poole said there is no housing bubble and the market should remain strong in 2006.

Poole said it's nearly impossible to forecast a price bubble.
"Indeed, given that bubbles always burst - if there is no burst there was no bubble - clear advance evidence of a bubble can never exist," Pool said. "If the evidence was clear, then everyone would know about the bubble and forthcoming burst, but then the buying that created the bubble would never occur in the first place," Poole said.
"So if you have an academic interest in house prices, I recommend that you wait a few years. If you have a direct financial interest, I can't help much - you're on your own," he said.
Poole said he did expect "some slowing in the growth of average home price nationally."
But Poole dismissed fears of a nationwide housing bubble.

You can go to www.marketwatch.com for more

Thanks Thyme. While I'm inherently suspicious of anything that comes from government on some things (comes from my past life of being in it :sosad: ) the argument makes good sense regarding the ability to predict a bubble. Rita (I think) posted a grim reaper smiley on another thread and I'm thinking about just posting that when we see all the negative conjecture about the market. :lol:
 

Buckhead Rick

Beach Lover
Feb 15, 2005
140
5
one question about interest rates (besides the fact that they can only go one of two ways, and they are still impossible to predict.)
What effect will they have on real estate ARMS and R/E prices if the FED stops pushing them up after the next meeting or two as Citigroup is now predicting and feels the FED may well start REDUCING rates in the fall? Could this cause buyers to blink?
 
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