Current inventory and sales forecast - December 2007

Discussion in 'Real Estate' started by JoshMclean, Nov 30, 2007.

  1. GTSViper

    GTSViper Beach Lover

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    Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

    Joe Mammy,
    I can't disagree that there will be a spike in inventory during spring of 08 as the foreclosures should show the fallout a little more significantly. However, I do believe people are realizing the deals that can be had. There are a lot of foriegn investors looking at our market right now. The dollar is weak and this makes it very intriguing to foriegn investors. The stock market has also been fairly strong for several months now and should slow down by mid year with elections coming. People should pull out profits and be looking for a place to put them,
    I am actually planning on moving back into buying mode early spring as well as several associates of mine.
    I am not saying the market is back and booming by any means but do see it bottoming out with a slow recovery.
    Real estate always bounces back and has been a good investment for 231 years. It will also be a good investment for the next 231 years.
    No More Land. More People. Good Location.
    Hang on a minute......I am writing up a contract as I speak.
     
  2. scooterbug44

    scooterbug44 SoWal Expert

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    Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

    If you have the $, I can definitely see the benefits to having your own vacation home instead of dealing with a rental that requires advance planning and has set dates.

    I know some local "vacation homes" that are occupied more than 50% of the year by the owners, their extended family, or friends and more and more people are buying vacation homes with the idea that it will someday be their retirement home.
     
  3. Kurt Lischka

    Kurt Lischka Admin Staff Member

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    Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

    I posted about a year ago that it would be December 20th, 4AM, 2007, a little tongue in cheek of course, but the bottom is here now for some, or at least close enough.

    But you may not know it for a couple of years. The main reason is because there is still a lot of property priced high and still a lot of people hanging on before having to let go, or remaining listed without needing to. This is easily seen where you have similar properties in the same neighborhood with prices far apart.

    I have lately seen a lot of prices at 50% or so of what they were between now and 2 years ago. There is a lot of inventory, and a lot of it is still priced unrealistic, but I feel there is a lot of property on the market that is priced as low as it will go and some of it is selling. Who is buying? The folks who will be bragging in a few years if they are the type to brag. Most likely though they will be too busy selling to have time to brag.

    Buying at the absolute bottom is not necessary and usually a fantasy.

    As of this moment, the better and more important question is:
    "Where is the magic top of the market"?
     
  4. JoshMclean

    JoshMclean Beach Fanatic

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    Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

    I agree whole heartedly that their will be more homes on the market come this spring. I also believe there will be more buyers searching and buying! We'll know soon enough, it's almost here!
     
  5. JoshMclean

    JoshMclean Beach Fanatic

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    Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

    I think Scooter did a good job of answering this question above. All people don't want to live like kings in a rental for 2 weeks a year. Some people like purchasing vacation homes as a long term investment/ sleeping in their own beds/ the pride of ownership, etc...
    I'm not saying that things won't be slow for a while. Simply believe that the market will start ticking upwards before we know it. Same scenario of a couple years ago when MOST people didn't see the market turning downards. Hindsight is 20/20.
     
  6. JoshMclean

    JoshMclean Beach Fanatic

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    Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

    Good post Kurt.
    I couldn't agree with this comment more.
    "Buying at the absolute bottom is not necessary and usually a fantasy."
     
  7. Smiling JOe

    Smiling JOe SoWal Expert

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    I will keep my comment brief (shocker) and simply mention that current inventory levels have much to do with sellers not being realistic with their prices. I have shown plenty of examples in the past where two neighboring properties, with similar features, have a price variance greater than 50%. Until one the lower priced one sells, there is really only one property for sale, even though you will see two listed. Remove those over-priced (not sellable at current time) from the market, and you will see the real inventory.
     
  8. GTSViper

    GTSViper Beach Lover

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    Smiling Joe,
    You hit the nail on the head. The main reason the inventory is up, is overpriced property still on the market. But really not for sale ass no one will buy them. They are creating an over inflated number of homes on the market.
    Kurt,
    You are absolutely right. Sadly enough, we do not have a person that runs out snd rings a bell with the market has bottomed out or reached it's peak.
    This is what a free market is all about. I purchased a lot of property when the market was down and made some money. I purchased some property with the market was and lost some money. God bless free trade.
     
  9. JoshMclean

    JoshMclean Beach Fanatic

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    Absolutely correct SJ. I think it would be a huge difference in inventory if the unrealistic listings were pulled off the market.
     
  10. Busta Hustle

    Busta Hustle Beach Fanatic

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    so maybe it is not the real inventory but just one's perspective/perception of the inventory? :yikes:
     
  11. trying2makeabuc

    trying2makeabuc Beach Comber

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    Wow, while reading this thread I see that a certain real estate agent poster has made 21,500 postings in the last 3 years. At 2 minutes a piece, minimum with the treatises he writes , and forgetting that he must read some of our musings, he has spent over 700 hours on this forum alone. Is this what most r.e. guys are doing while waiting for the market to turn?
     
  12. BeachSiO2

    BeachSiO2 Beach Fanatic

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    I can tell you one story about the real estate agent you mention. He was able to sell a house for 90% of list price in October 2006 when the wheels had supposedly fallen off the market. The sell was closed within 60 days of the original listing and by the way, he wasn't the listing agent either. So, I think he has been doing a little more than sowalling.;-) Maybe he is just more efficient than some of the rest.:clap:

    By the way, I think the buyer found him on sowal so it seems like it may be a good marketing tool for some. :D
     
  13. Smiling JOe

    Smiling JOe SoWal Expert

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    I will also point out that the SoWaller to whom you refer, spent more than 40 hours after Hurricane Ivan passed through, taking photos of people's homes and posting them on SoWal.com so that the homeowners could feel more comfortable knowing the condition of their home, without having to hire someone to check on the homes for them. Add to that, the time that it took to take accurate notes on home condition, and reducing the image size of the photos, plus the time to upload them, and you will get more than 700 hours. Though, I can tell you that your average post time of two minutes is too long. I'm a fast typist. ;-)

    By the way, I'm not a Realtor who tries to gain everyone's business. I want to keep my number of listings small, and be able to give excellent customer service to each of my customers. I think that is much more difficult when you have too many listings.
     
  14. LightWorker

    LightWorker Beach Fanatic

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    And a smart one too...:cool:
     
  15. SHELLY

    SHELLY SoWal Insider

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    Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

    Joe,

    So how long will it take to pay back a $500,000 (2/28) loan if the first 2 years were "interest only" payments and then next 5 years it is fixed at 3.5%? And what would the suits at "Now's a Great Time to Buy Hedge Fund" do when their promised 11% bond didn't pay out as planned?


    .
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2007
  16. kathydwells

    kathydwells Darlene is my middle name, not my nickname

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    :clap::clap::clap::clap:And he did all this with the prettiest smile I have ever seen.
     
  17. scooterbug44

    scooterbug44 SoWal Expert

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    IMO the number of SJ's posts and the amount of time he Sowals are noone's business but his.

    Do you think vacant lot prices will continue to fall?
     
  18. Bobby J

    Bobby J Beach Fanatic

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    My wife likes his lips... :D You da man SJ! Thanks for all your posts and keeping folks up to date.
     
  19. Philip_Atlanta

    Philip_Atlanta Beach Lover

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    So..here is a question, inventory is higher but there certainly are a lot more homes/condos nowadays. Does anyone know the increase in properties relative to the increase in inventory?

    I do agree with Shelly - there doesn't appear to be any economic indicators that would point positively in 2008. Real estate markets are local, and this market might move a little upward in '08 but I don't hold out that that would be a light at the end of the tunnel.
     
  20. Philip_Atlanta

    Philip_Atlanta Beach Lover

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    Agreed.
     

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