Discussion in 'Real Estate' started by Luke, Oct 8, 2005.
For all you JOE owners, you may think about selling. When you see a stock pumping article in a National Magazine like Fortune, it is definitely time to sell.
I'm clueless about the stock market, but very interested as to why the above is true. Please educate.
Often, when the price run-up is over a short period of time, many people who bought prior to the run-up will sell, and take their profits, thereby bringing the price down.
The opposite often holds true as well. When the analysts are saying sell, you may want to find out the reasons why. Perhaps it is because they want the price to drop in order to make some large buys. Sometimes, when people saying buy are the larger traders and they will be selling you the stocks which they hold. It is one big cycle of churn.
EDIT: I guess I should note to do your own due diligence. I am not a Certified Financial Planner, nor do I take any responsibility for your investments.
Maybe St Joe thinks since sales are down for their real estate, they can pump their numbers using the stock market.
Side note: with real estate sales slowing, which is most of JOE's market, why would this "buy" article be coming out? Makes you think, eh?
Interesting article,although the part about mountain biking @ RiverCamp seems dubious since its essentially @ sea level. The stock has ranged between 46.97 - 85.25 in the last year. I would consider it if it drops below 50 (its 60.15 now), but then I also thought that W would be a good president, so what do I know?BigR :idontno:
Geez, SJ, I'm glad you added that disclaimer. I was just about to day trade some JOE stock. Now that I know that you won't take responsibility for my investments, I've decided not to do it--it sounds too risky :roll: .
Whoo! Glad I added the disclaimer, which stopped you in your tracks. Just kidding. You never know who may be reading all these posts and how they may react, hence my disclaimer. I know you are smarter than that.;-)
I do not get the "cracker chic" phenomenon. I mean, if one really wants a rustic house in the woods, with a canoe...why not find a very reasonably priced cabin in the hill country of Georgia or the Carolinas? These areas don't have bugs or traffic or hurricanes/storm surge. The allure of proximity to ocean/gulf is obvious and enduring. As is the beauty and history of the Pt. Washington area. But backwater new towns? I don't know. My experience says beware land speculation that is associated with themes. The going thing in CA in the 1970s and 80s was "Rancho this and Rancho that." The old dump in Cucamonga (Spanish for "cockroach") was renamed Rancho Cucamonga and became a venue for million dollar plus homes. Then the real estate values calmed down and now no one wants to be a Rancho. The movie "Sunshine State" comes to mind.
The bellweather on real estate values is definitely the Panama City airport project and associated freeway flyover to Seagrove. Our friends are incredulous at how undervalued Gulf view and proximity properties still are in the South Walton area, as compared to other waterfront/resort real estate. An international airport will make the area more accessible to larger affluence, for better or worse. The challenge will be keeping the unique character and quality of life intact, in the face of all that pressure. Affluent newcomers tend to bring their own taste and synergy to an area, rather than taking the pulse and trying to assimilate. There is a lot worth saving in Walton County, that's for sure.
The biggest surprise may be yet to come---the gentrification of Freeport and DeFuniak Springs. The old antebellum houses around that Lake are still a steal and many are in need of refurbishing. These areas are the perfect spot for retiring baby boomers, emphasis on "retiring..."
A leading indicator of St Joe real estate??
Lots of "in the know" folks were (emphasis on were) holding JOE. The CEO doubled up (40,000 shares sold vs. his usual 20,000) on his insider selling just AT and a little beyond the peak.
The JOE PR machine has been working overtime trying to keep the air in the stock, but it fell and has remained below its 200 day moving average.
News of dividend increases, spreads in Southern Living and saving endangered woodpeckers, and now the Fortune magazine article have failed to move the stock up. On Oct 6, Bank of America lowered the stock's target price to $75 (not good news to folks who brought it after May 2005).
Bottom line: Those who properly used stop loss for their JOE are happier than pigs in the mud. JOE is shaking out its speculators who've moved this stock's price up way too high--way too fast. JOE is at best a $50 stock that has a place in a buy-and-hold portfolio. Take some profit off the table and wait for it to come down before jumping back in.
A little more info:
Insider Transactions for: JOE
SHARE PURCHASE ACTIVITY- Last 6 Months
from yahoo finance - Insider Transactions
This info shows no insiders buying any JOE stock in the last 6 months, yet selling off 188,000 shares in the same period. Notice that is only 10 transactions and is not very large, totalling only $11,280,000 at yesterday's close of $60 per share.
At further glance, I see that Peter S Rummell, Chairman, has been selling 20,000 shares at the beginning of the month for several months. At today's price of $60/ share, that is about $1.2 Million per month.
Also, it is interesting to see that Alfred DuPont has sold over $712 Million :shock: of JOE stock in the last two and a half years, and back in June of this year, planned to sell another 1,000,000 shares. Those are some big bucks.
Here's an insider trading chart that goes back to the beginning of 2005:
That's about $16 MILLION plus change for JOE's CEO and that's not including his salary and the company car--nice work if you can get it!! Thanks shareholders!!
Who said you can't make money selling swampland--not Rummell!
"But today even the likes of the St. Joe Company, whose stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange, are in a high-speed mode to develop swampy areas. "Someone told me, 'When you're selling, it's called pristine nature; if you're buying, it's a swamp,' " said Peter S. Rummell, chairman and chief executive of St. Joe. His company is selling home sites bordering on marshy areas in northwestern Florida for up to $750,000 apiece, billing them as the "ultimate personal retreat."
"We're looking at wetlands as amenities, as new vistas," Mr. Rummell said. "More people are getting used to the idea that a swamp can be just as alluring, if not more so, than a beach. There are people - my wife is one - who are just as happy walking in the woods with binoculars looking for birds as they are strolling the beach. We're appreciating the variety more. A beach is a beach. But the marsh can be more interesting with its grasses, islands and unbelievable life."
Say Hi to Ms Rummell next time you see her stomping through the swamp in her Manolo Blahniks.
I bought JOE at $73 in July, saw it go up to $85 later in the summer, and it's now around $60. I'm holding onto mine, though, because most analysts are saying, hold or buy it right now. Then, again, I didn't invest a lot in JOE, just enough to make it interesting to watch. The real estate market is crazy right now (a buyers market) but I believe this is cyclical and a reasonable short-term correction.
When Whole Foods had something similar happen several years ago, we sold our stock -- sure wish we had kept that one...
>>Then, again, I didn't invest a lot in JOE, just enough to make it interesting to watch.<<
How low will the price have to go before it is no longer "interesting"?
Since you're just in JOE for fun and you're already down $13 per, "locking in profits" isn't an issue in your case--otherwise, it would be prudent to have a stop-loss order for 50% of holdings around the $58 dollar mark. Some are holding out waiting for JOE's quarterly report the end of the month. If you start seeing a lot of selling about 2 weeks prior, the numbers ain't gonna be good. If that is the case, this thing is going to drop pretty quick. Just in case, having a stop-loss in place before the quarterly release (or some puts at the $60 range) might not be a bad idea for long-time holders.
Push come to shove, at the end of the year one can sell off JOE and write off the losses against the gains in their energy stocks.
Yes, that's good advice. I'm going to ride this one out for a while, though, because I still see potential for the long-run (up to a point). I read the book about St. Joe and the coast, I like the quality of their building and communities, I like it that they win awards for attention to the environment (I know much of this may be "press" and attention getting, but they're probably better than many), I think the fact that the CEO is a former Disney Exec. and has a good team is very positive (and I'm not a Disney fan, but they do know how to figure out what people want, they do their research, and they plan carefully), etc., etc. The thing that would scare me is if they were doing anything unethical or if there was a change in leadership. Other than that, I think they're still good for my portfolio in the long-run.
There's a book called Blink by Malcolm Gladwell that is about how many people make decisions based on what looks like intuition, but it's "thin slicing" -- identifying and analyzing key things and making decisions based on this little bit of information. I'm hoping I'm doing some effective "thin slicing" with JOE. I may be wrong, but I'm willing to take the loss if I am and the gain if I'm not (again, it's not a lot and I didn't bet the kid's future or our future).
But I appreciate the warnings and am keeping these things in mind as well -- there's clearly a problem and I'm betting that it's short term and temporary economic/market corrections.
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