Discussion in 'Real Estate' started by GVM, Oct 6, 2005.
Pensacola and SoWal markets are soft, but the demographic dynamics are miles apart. Maybe Shelly can expand on this w/ her unique angle.
"Unique Angle"....I like that. :funn: Most agree based on the sales numbers first 3 quarters of '05 vs same time '04 are down with inventory up so it is making for a softer market but as I read this and other articles it is obvious to me that you can not directly compare Pensacola or Destin to SoWal because they are so different. However, any negative "bubble" news about the surrounding area or "panhandle" in general can hurt the overall interest and demand in the SoWal area specifically.
The flipping and wild buying craze of 2002-2004 with 100% appreciation per year was not forecasted and it was only a matter of time and circumstance before it ended (and it appears that it has ended). As all, my hope is that this is a short term cycle/correction and things will become stable and steady "normal" annual appreciation (5-20%) increases in value will settle in for the future.
Pensacola has a reputation now of being in the line of fire. They may take a long time to recover. Their ecomomy has always been wierd.
OTOH there were a lot of people rebuilding from Ivan when Dennis wiped them out again. They may give up for good and speculators and investors come in and scoop it up and put in lots of new developments.
I have a friend who always said Pcola was a sleeping giant and would be discovered some day.
I read an interesting piece in a recent REALTOR magazine; a Destin realtor said that many folks there were treating building lots in the surrounding areas as if they were 12-month CDs--that pretty much says it all.
5-20% would approach "normal" in the SoWal area compared to the craze from the "flipper years". For every negative article on Pcola, Destin, and PCB, there seems to be 2-3 positive ones too. So, if you want to make a doom and gloom argument, you can. If you want to be blindly bullish, you can. I choose to be optimistic and realistic in my balance of closely watching the area and the dynamics.
BTW, I heard that 20/20 had a positive piece on Florida RE (not SoWal specific) last night and the Fotune article re St Joe that was just posted in another thread support the positive view. I choose to be positive and others....choose for themselves. JMO (just my opinion) and not trying to convince anybody.
In another thread on Sep 30 you said, "I'm bullish on this market" What changed your mind in the course of a week??
Nothing. I'm still bullish but as I say one should not "blindly bullish" or overly unrealistically gushing positive (or negative ). Balance and being realistic is my approach and as more info and data comes in and I weigh it then I may take another stance.
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