Getting better

[Robert]

http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/27/news/companies/homebuilders.reut/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061227/homebuilders_sector_snap.html?.v=1
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/061227/housing_stocks.html?.v=3

This is an indication that things are improving. We are not out of the woods yet but it is getting better overall. I'm cautiously optomistic.

IMHO, I think it won't be till early '08 before things are back to a normal market equilibrium. However, I also feel it will only be until late spring/summer '07 when the RE market starts to noticeably heat up a bit. Realtors get ready.

Notice to Shelly: No need to post. We all know what you think. If you want to bash something or give your opinion, start your own thread please. Thanking you in advance.

 

[Mango]

Robert, the operative word is cautious above, but optimism is yet to be seen. The rise in sales for one month IMO is not indicative of anything yet. Besides, the sales figures posted never include buyers who walked away from contracts and down payments.
That being said, next Spring may bring more buyers out of the woodwork depending on what the Feds do after the new year. I believe they will have to lower the Fed rate a couple of times to egg on the economy a bit more. That may affect mortgage rates lower, and with inventory being so high, people may decide to buy.

 

[Bobby J]

http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/27/news/companies/homebuilders.reut/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061227/homebuilders_sector_snap.html?.v=1
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/061227/housing_stocks.html?.v=3

This is an indication that things are improving. We are not out of the woods yet but it is getting better overall. I'm cautiously optomistic.

IMHO, I think it won't be till early '08 before things are back to a normal market equilibrium. However, I also feel it will only be until late spring/summer '07 when the RE market starts to noticeably heat up a bit. Realtors get ready.

Notice to Shelly: No need to post. We all know what you think. If you want to bash something or give your opinion, start your own thread please. Thanking you in advance.

:clap_1: We are definitely not out of the woods but the market does seem to be in another changing period... Condo fliipers are going to be in big trouble this next year but random property near 30A seems to getting some action. People want be near 30A!!!

 

[6thGen]

I'd expect the governors to raise before they lower. Not only is the dollar losing value, the economy is not slowing down and there is still excess liquidity in the system. Besides, the bond market is playing chicken with the Fed and keeping mortgage rates low, so the talk of bailing out the housing market is platitude. Lowering short term rates might do more harm than good since real estate developers and builders (suppliers) borrow on short rates while end users borrow on long, so the Fed sees it as sucking up a good bit of inventory before they encourage more supply. The economy is on a 49 month expansion and keeps ticking along, with other industries absorbing the real estate sector job losses. It is not showing any real signs of slowing down, unless the 110th Congress screws it up by playing class war and raising taxes on "the rich" (i.e. job creators). Bernacke is either lucky or good, because he hasn't always said the right things but he appears to have done the right things.

 

[Mango]

From Bloomberg news today

"Traders are now so confident that Bernanke, who took office in February, will keep prices under control that they are counting on rate cuts next year"

 

[6thGen]

Traders have been betting on rate cuts for quite some time. Cuts will come eventually, but not in the fashion of 2001, which is what started the frenzy in the first place.

 

[Bob]

I'd expect the governors to raise before they lower. Not only is the dollar losing value, the economy is not slowing down and there is still excess liquidity in the system. Besides, the bond market is playing chicken with the Fed and keeping mortgage rates low, so the talk of bailing out the housing market is platitude. Lowering short term rates might do more harm than good since real estate developers and builders (suppliers) borrow on short rates while end users borrow on long, so the Fed sees it as sucking up a good bit of inventory before they encourage more supply. The economy is on a 49 month expansion and keeps ticking along, with other industries absorbing the real estate sector job losses. It is not showing any real signs of slowing down, unless the 110th Congress screws it up by playing class war and raising taxes on "the rich" (i.e. job creators). Bernacke is either lucky or good, because he hasn't always said the right things but he appears to have done the right things.

6th Gen, You had it perfect until the job creators quote. It's job exporters, not creators. Bernanke is lucky, because he is powerless versus a unified OPEC.

 

[bdc63]

I agree with those predicting at least one more rate hike ... the dollar index closed the year below 85 -- last time I looked it was around 83. That is scary low. If they start cutting rates, that goes even lower. No matter what happens to the economy, I can not see them knowingly turning the dollar into toast.