Housing Bubble

[fisher]

More likely than you think - for Europeans our winter temps are very mild. And they get a lot more bang for their buck on our beach verses South Beach, etc. And Europeans are not necessarily snowbirds - France, for example, celebrates their "summer break" in August and for an entire month. If you go to Paris in August, you'll find it feels empty, other than the tourists. In October, schools are let out for a few weeks and families head out - perfect weather in our area for those Europeans who can't take the August heat. Believe it or not, the Panhandle doesn't have a "redneck" reputation in France. Most of them haven't even heard of our beach - but they will. I think of Field of Dreams when I think of the new airport - build it and they will come!

If airlines thought direct flights to the panhandle would be profitable, they would already be flying into Pensacola or maybe Ft. Walton. Either place can handle the big jets. PCB is dreaming if they think direct flights from Europe are a possibility. Field of Dreams was a fantasy movie--just like direct flights into PCB from Europe are a fantasy.

In a couple of years when the airport is complete, let's check back on this thread to see the true outcome versus our current speculation.

 

[SHELLY]

I've been watching House Hunters International, and they've been showing a lot of Spanish and Portugese vacation homes lately. Not sure how the weather is there in winter, but that area looks like it would be awesome in the summer- all kinds of charming coastal villages, beaches, interesting architecture, wonderful places to explore...

And that part of the world seemed very reasonably priced, even with the current exchange rate. Far more so than France or Italy would be.

The weather along the southern coast of Spain is very much like the panhandle--cooler in the fall and winter, warm in the Spring, HOT in the summer. IMO, Spanish beaches aren't all that great, but the Brits don't seem to care--they're used to going to their beaches bundling up to their necks; drinking hot tea out of a flask and surrounding themselves with windbreaks (fabric and sticks that wall them off from the wind--much like our beach umbrellas block the sun)--the water in Britain is ice cold, even in the summer. Once upon a time, the lodging, food and booze in Spain was cheap, cheap, cheap. Then the European Union/Euros happened and it all started to change.

A speculative housing bubble emerged in Spain and it, and its economy, is presently mirroring the same downward course as the US.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ar3L878k5YM4&refer=home

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/feb2008/spai-f12.shtml

The latest in warm-weather RE "investment" for the Brits is Brazil--touted as being warm, sunny and inexpensive. And the beat goes on.

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[RB1]

It's a matter of organizing what the Panhandle is willing to spend on marketing to Europe. Ok, I grant you, Field of Dreams was a fantasy, but so was (is) Disney - a total creation of man in the middle of nowhere - and look what happened. I agree, let's re-evaluate this in a few years, but I stick to my bet. Hey, didn't I hear something about a theme park (Wild Kingdom / Disney) being planned for somewhere in our surrounding area? hmmmm

 

[SHELLY]

Hey, didn't I hear something about a theme park (Wild Kingdom / Disney) being planned for somewhere in our surrounding area? hmmmm

Cue 00seer00!

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[flyguy]

This European flights to the Panhandle have already been covered in depth in other posts. Ain't gonna happen.

The new PCB airport is not being built to handle any plane that can fly directly to or from Europe.

And you can connect from Atlanta to all major cities in Europe right now. The new airport will change nothing. The current PCB airport is very underutilized. Airlines add flights when passenger demand increases, not when a new airport is built.

The panhandle will grow, but not overnight with a new airport. I have no doubt that in 20 years the new airport will be very busy, but not any time soon.

JMHO,
Flyguy

 

[SHELLY]

This European flights to the Panhandle have already been covered in depth in other posts. Ain't gonna happen.

The new PCB airport is not being built to handle any plane that can fly directly to or from Europe.

And you can connect from Atlanta to all major cities in Europe right now. The new airport will change nothing. The current PCB airport is very underutilized. Airlines add flights when passenger demand increases, not when a new airport is built.

The panhandle will grow, but not overnight with a new airport. I have no doubt that in 20 years the new airport will be very busy, but not any time soon.

JMHO,
Flyguy

Fly,

What's your view of what future airline mergers will bring to the party?
(i.e., rubblings about America West & US Airways; American & United)

/

 

[flyguy]

Fly,

What's your view of what future airline consolidations will bring to the party?
(i.e., rubblings about America West & US Airways; American & United)

/

Very good for the stock holders in the short term. The short term has passed for America West and US Airways as it is now tanking. This merger is going so badly that I would not be suprised to see the companys split again and sold to separate buyers.

If the other mergers happen I would cash out early, over the long haul a merger is very difficult.

But I really don't think any of the big mergers like United/Continental or Delta/Northwest will ever happen due to government intervention by senators protecting their home airline. But if it does it will also have to happen quickly under Bush as I don't think McCain or the Dems would be for consolidation.

Airlines are generally an awful investment over the long term.

JMHO,
Flyguy

 

[SHELLY]

Airlines are generally an awful investment over the long term.

JMHO,
Flyguy

I know about the "investment"...scratch that...malinvestment aspects of airlines; I was interested in your view as to what such mergers will do for the area airports.


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[Beach Runner]

More likely than you think - for Europeans our winter temps are very mild. And they get a lot more bang for their buck on our beach verses South Beach, etc. And Europeans are not necessarily snowbirds - France, for example, celebrates their "summer break" in August and for an entire month. If you go to Paris in August, you'll find it feels empty, other than the tourists. In October, schools are let out for a few weeks and families head out - perfect weather in our area for those Europeans who can't take the August heat. Believe it or not, the Panhandle doesn't have a "redneck" reputation in France. Most of them haven't even heard of our beach - but they will. I think of Field of Dreams when I think of the new airport - build it and they will come!

Not just in France, but all over Western Europe. They call it "holiday." I mean, Milan, for example, is a ghost town during the month of August. I went once expecting to shop at the couturiers, and they were all closed. Even La Scala was dark.

I think that the dollar is so bad that Europeans just might consider vacationing in the Panhandle. It would be a bargain as compared to Portugal or Minorca. In addition, the beaches I've been to on the Med from Barcelona all the way around to Roma are bad in comparison to those on the Emerald Coast, so once they experience them, the word should get out. Of course, Europeans would have to get used to not sunbathing topless.

 

[SHELLY]

I think that the dollar is so bad that Europeans just might consider vacationing in the Panhandle.

You'll know them by their trademark black socks & brown sandals, speedos and notoriously stingy (if at all) tipping protocol.

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