Ike
- Thread starter SHELLY
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That's not good. :shock:
Oh for God's sake, enough already! 
On the news this evening it looked at one point that Ike crosses the tail end of Hanna as it goes up the Atlantic coast before crossing into the gulf. Wonder how rare a thing that is. Josephine is behind that one, no telling what will go on with that one.
I think Ike is going to do the Fujiwara dance with Hanna. Weather or not they marry each other remains to be seen. Since Ike is the dominant one, Hanna could be exhausted during the marriage.
Ike is the insurers' nightmare, and the lenders and sellers saving grace.
I heard Josephine was most likely going to get torn up before it ever makes it over here, and Hanna pretty lame, probably a cat 1 when it makes land fall. Nothing major there.
Ike on the other hand scares me a bit, already at cat 4, plus how many times have we seen these tracks move westward as they approach Florida?
From Jeff Masters' blog on http://www.wunderground.com
Track forecast for Ike
The models are split into two distinct camps on the 1-3 day track of Ike. The UKMET/GFS/HWRF models allow Ike go go a bit further north initially, then show less of a southerly component of motion than the other models. The other camp of models, the NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL, take Ike further south, and have more of a southward component of motion, with a threat to Cuba and Hispaniola by this weekend. The NHC forecast splits the difference between these extremes, and probably has higher uncertainty than average. Climatology, as seen in the latest historical comparison of similar hurricanes in the past, favors the more northerly track. Only one out of ten similar past storms has made landfall in the U.S. as a hurricane. <I like those odds.>
The longer term fate of Ike remains highly uncertain--as usual. If Ike follows the southern camp of models, it may hit eastern Cuba, as forecast by the latest (06Z, 2am EDT) runs of the NOGAPS and GFDL models. A hit on Cuba would severely disrupt the storm, weakening it to a Category 1 or 2. If Ike misses Cuba, South Florida can expect a highly dangerous major hurricane on its doorstep Tuesday. On Tuesday, a trough of low pressure is forecast by most of the models to turn Ike to the north. The timing and strength of this trough will be critical in determining the fate of South Florida. The GFS model turns Ike well east of Florida, sending the storm out to sea without affecting the U.S. The ECMWF model turns Ike directly over South Florida, while the NOGAPS model foresees recurvature just offshore, through the western Bahama Islands. It is impossible to know at this time when or if Ike will turn to the north, and whether Florida might be spared the full brunt of Ike. Ike may be a threat to North Carolina in the longer term, and one possible scenario for the hurricane would be a repeat of Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Floyd bore down on Florida as a borderline Category 4/5 hurricane before turning at the last moment, eventually hitting North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane. Another scenario, which is suggested by the ECMWF model, is that Ike would recurve but not get pulled all the way out to sea. Instead, Ike might get trapped in a region of weak steering currents and wander for a few days, like Fay and now Gustav have done. This could occur offshore the East Coast, or over the Florida Peninsula.
pretty cool interactive site a friend just forwarded me.
http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008
http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008