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Interesting Data about the Bubble on 30A

Discussion in 'Real Estate' started by Cork On the Ocean, Jun 26, 2005.

  1. Cork On the Ocean

    Cork On the Ocean directionally challenged

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    I ran some data for a client comparing sales data for Rosemary Beach and Seacrest Beach which turned out to be quite interesting. The number of Sales are down from last year but the appreciation is significantly higher than it was between 2003-2004 during the same period. The days on market were less this year than the last several years.

    My thoughts are that sellers have slammed the prices this year. Fewer people are investing (maybe running scared from all the talk about a bubble or maybe priced out of this market) but there still are buyers out there to pay the escalated appreciation. Also when the homes are priced right, they're moving quicker. Basically looks like last year was the bomb but this year we're running about the same as we were in 2003 which was still great.

    The following data is from the emerald coast MLS for pending home sales in Seacrest Beach and Rosemary Beach for the dates indicated.

    Seacrest Beach

    ...........................#Pending... Avg Price.......Avg $ Per Sqft....DOM
    01/01/05-06/23/05----22------$1,018,900------$464.09--------75
    01/01/04-06/23/04----53------$...613,560------$287.79-------132
    01/01/03-06/23/03----26------$...490,475------$233.30-------204
    01/01/02-06/23/02----10------$...435,400------$195.79-------147
    01/01/01-06/23/01-----6------$...316,450------$186.23-------179

    Rosemary Beach

    ...........................#Pending... Avg Price.......Avg $ Per Sqft....DOM
    01/01/05-06/23/05----12------$2,160,417------$902.59--------86
    01/01/04-06/23/04----39------$1,471,519------$579.73-------176
    01/01/03-06/23/03----14------$1,258,906------$585.16-------312
    01/01/02-06/23/02-----5------$...637,000------$686.69-------267
    01/01/01-06/23/01-----1------$1,200,000------$480.96--------86
     
  2. lollygal

    lollygal Beach Fanatic

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    Thank you for the positive info --
     
  3. Bob

    Bob SoWal Insider

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    That's interesting! If prices keep rising at the same rate, overall sales will shrink. Kinda like a pyramid. The higher you go, the smaller the market.
     
  4. STL Don

    STL Don Beach Fanatic

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    As much as I would love to believe the positive information, it sure seems that things have ground to a halt. Case in point, Dunes of Seagrove had 6 units for sale in March, 2006--now it has 15 and none of the inventory has been moving. Of course this has not stopped the addition of new units at very high prices.
     
  5. RiverOtter

    RiverOtter got any pics?

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    I have noticed the same thing. Seems like the houses are moving though or they are being taken off the market. I'm just watching the mls.
     
  6. SHELLY

    SHELLY SoWal Insider

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    Its NASDAQ 5000 time.
     
  7. Bob

    Bob SoWal Insider

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    Here we go again. Stocks equals homes. I can't take it!
     
  8. SHELLY

    SHELLY SoWal Insider

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    >Here we go again. Stocks equals homes. I can't take it!<

    Bob,

    Not comparing assets--just comparing the kind of euphoria (and rationalization) that comes near the "tippy top"
     
  9. spinDrAtl

    spinDrAtl Beach Fanatic

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    The problem with making these kinds of comparisons is that the pieces of paper on the nasdaq can go to zero. In addition, in many cases you have no tangible asset, just a money losing 'idea'. Of course, it is entirely possible to pay too much for real estate and if you are a flipper, get burned. However, if you are buying real estate to use, to hold, to rent, etc. it will be there. Maybe you will overpay, who knows, only time will tell. But you can live in it, go to the beach, and enjoy it.

    Those of us intent on holding our properties and enjoying them have no worries about the tippy top. I was fortunate enough to buy in 1997 and of course I am thrilled by the appreciation but since we have no intention of selling at this time, the market peak, if this is one, is not really relevant.
     
  10. skier

    skier Beach Lover

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    Cork,

    You seem to have access to lots of good data. But, not sure exactly what the numbers mean. Are the 12 homes listed for this year at Rosemary simply pending or do they represent closings? Also, how long can a home be listed as pending (if a home went under contract six months ago while it was under construction, would it remain pending until closing--same for condos under construction)? I would be interested to know for WS, RM, SS, SC and WC how many properties have gone under contract over the last 3 months. Based on the weekly price sheets I get from Arvida, many properties went under contract from 1/1 through mid April. However, over the last two months during the busy selling season, very few properties have gone pending on the Arvida list.

    It's difficult to look at some of the data and filter out closings on properties that were put under contract long ago (for instance there will be lots and lots of closings on the Compass Point condos at Watersound over the next month or so, but those went under contract over a year ago) from contracts that have been placed over the last 3 months when things seem to have slowed dramatically. Closings on condos or homes that have been under contract for over three months won't give any indication of what's happening in the market currently. And, pending lists with properties that have been pending during construction for a long period of time also won't accurately portray the current market.

    Any insight would be appreciated.
     
  11. drsvelte

    drsvelte Beach Fanatic

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  12. wetwilly

    wetwilly Beach Fanatic

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    Cork,

    Great post and data. Do you have any similar data for Seagrove, Seaside/WaterColor, and Blue Mtn? Thanks for the insite for us non real estate types.
     
  13. skier

    skier Beach Lover

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    drsvelte,

    Not sure if it would have made the list or not, but the study was done on metropolitan areas, not resort areas.
     
  14. Cavallino

    Cavallino Beach Comber

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    A Little More Focus

    What is the average of 100 and 0?
    The answer is 50 - which is really no closer to one than the other.

    With that being said, I find "real estate market generalizations without focus and data" to be a waste of time. I would encourage those obsessively watching asking prices/inventory levels to focus on their specific neighborhood.

    For example, here is what the data suggests in Watercolor - Phase 1.
    - 35 properties for sale <detached single family and lots>
    - 229 properties in this universe
    - 15.28% of available properties are on the market
    - a $3.6mm 4,000 sq ft home went pending this week

    Why be so specific.....because condos & PRC units & lots in Phase 4 behind Publix are NOT comps for detached single family homes in Phase 1.

    This closer focus shows that while inventory levels are higher than last year, they are nowhere near the levels of earlier posts for the section of the neighborhood that i watch.

    The points being.....
    - 50 is no closer to 0 than it is to 100
    - market comps matter in real estate - not emotional generalizations
    - look at closes....not listings
    - enjoy the beach


    My 2cents...now off my soapbox.

    Doug :nono1:
     
  15. Seahorse

    Seahorse Beach Comber

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    I too think it is all quite interesting and I still believe this area will always be a tremendous investment opportunity. As for things grinding to a halt, it seems like it is localized. For example, we sold a lot within 6 days of listing it, then purchased a GF condo in late March 05. Within two months two additional condos in our building listed and sold for considerably more than we paid. There are now two more on the market. To put it all in perspective though, our long time realtor said that it's definitely a buyers market right now because so much is on the market at the moment. It will also be quite quite interesting what happens to 30A real estate (and I hope nothing) when the, let's see-what is it, something like 55 high rise condo buildings are finished in PCB. Don't remember the exact numbers, but it will be interesting to see if this "market flooding" will effect us. IMHO, I say no......30A is a very very special place, not even comparable to almost anywhere on the map.... :cool:
     
  16. wetwilly

    wetwilly Beach Fanatic

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    Re: A Little More Focus

    Doug,

    Agree. In my opinion, sweeping market data and generalizations may show some trends...may not....but a focus on comps and criteria (close to the beach, So of 30A, good access etc) seem to help in putting some of this in perspective. Good, solid criteria that is used for buyers/sellers will prevail in the hype times and will help sellers when the "buy anything" frenzy subsides or during the plateau (before it goes back up again). Just my opinion---I'm no expert. Great topic for discussion and varied opinions. :cool:
     
  17. SHELLY

    SHELLY SoWal Insider

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    If the phrase "Housing Bubble" makes you cringe and your stomach turns, :eek: your portfolio is overweight in real estate and you seriously need to think about unloading some of it. If, on the other hand, the phrase makes you think, "so what," :idontno: you're going to do just fine when (not if) prices level and recede.
     
  18. beachmouse

    beachmouse Beach Fanatic

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  19. Buckhead Rick

    Buckhead Rick Beach Lover

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    Please excuse this question but some of the "locals" will have a better feel then I..Eagles Cove development off E. Hewett and the bay fell through for the time being because the zoning got "tighter". The rules of the past are not being allowed now. Does this signal newer projects will have a harder time coming on line?
     
  20. RiverOtter

    RiverOtter got any pics?

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    Eagle Cove or Eagle Bay??
     

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