Interesting Data about the Bubble on 30A

[Cork On the Ocean]

I ran some data for a client comparing sales data for Rosemary Beach and Seacrest Beach which turned out to be quite interesting. The number of Sales are down from last year but the appreciation is significantly higher than it was between 2003-2004 during the same period. The days on market were less this year than the last several years.

My thoughts are that sellers have slammed the prices this year. Fewer people are investing (maybe running scared from all the talk about a bubble or maybe priced out of this market) but there still are buyers out there to pay the escalated appreciation. Also when the homes are priced right, they're moving quicker. Basically looks like last year was the bomb but this year we're running about the same as we were in 2003 which was still great.

The following data is from the emerald coast MLS for pending home sales in Seacrest Beach and Rosemary Beach for the dates indicated.

Seacrest Beach

...........................#Pending... Avg Price.......Avg $ Per Sqft....DOM
01/01/05-06/23/05----22------$1,018,900------$464.09--------75
01/01/04-06/23/04----53------$...613,560------$287.79-------132
01/01/03-06/23/03----26------$...490,475------$233.30-------204
01/01/02-06/23/02----10------$...435,400------$195.79-------147
01/01/01-06/23/01-----6------$...316,450------$186.23-------179

Rosemary Beach

...........................#Pending... Avg Price.......Avg $ Per Sqft....DOM
01/01/05-06/23/05----12------$2,160,417------$902.59--------86
01/01/04-06/23/04----39------$1,471,519------$579.73-------176
01/01/03-06/23/03----14------$1,258,906------$585.16-------312
01/01/02-06/23/02-----5------$...637,000------$686.69-------267
01/01/01-06/23/01-----1------$1,200,000------$480.96--------86

 

[lollygal]

Thank you for the positive info --

 

[Bob]

That's interesting! If prices keep rising at the same rate, overall sales will shrink. Kinda like a pyramid. The higher you go, the smaller the market.

 

[STL Don]

As much as I would love to believe the positive information, it sure seems that things have ground to a halt. Case in point, Dunes of Seagrove had 6 units for sale in March, 2006--now it has 15 and none of the inventory has been moving. Of course this has not stopped the addition of new units at very high prices.

 

[RiverOtter]

As much as I would love to believe the positive information, it sure seems that things have ground to a halt. Case in point, Dunes of Seagrove had 6 units for sale in March, 2006--now it has 15 and none of the inventory has been moving. Of course this has not stopped the addition of new units at very high prices.

I have noticed the same thing. Seems like the houses are moving though or they are being taken off the market. I'm just watching the mls.

 

[SHELLY]

Its NASDAQ 5000 time.

 

[Bob]

Its NASDAQ 5000 time.

Here we go again. Stocks equals homes. I can't take it!

 

[SHELLY]

>Here we go again. Stocks equals homes. I can't take it!<

Bob,

Not comparing assets--just comparing the kind of euphoria (and rationalization) that comes near the "tippy top"

 

[spinDrAtl]

The problem with making these kinds of comparisons is that the pieces of paper on the nasdaq can go to zero. In addition, in many cases you have no tangible asset, just a money losing 'idea'. Of course, it is entirely possible to pay too much for real estate and if you are a flipper, get burned. However, if you are buying real estate to use, to hold, to rent, etc. it will be there. Maybe you will overpay, who knows, only time will tell. But you can live in it, go to the beach, and enjoy it.

Those of us intent on holding our properties and enjoying them have no worries about the tippy top. I was fortunate enough to buy in 1997 and of course I am thrilled by the appreciation but since we have no intention of selling at this time, the market peak, if this is one, is not really relevant.

 

[skier]

Cork,

You seem to have access to lots of good data. But, not sure exactly what the numbers mean. Are the 12 homes listed for this year at Rosemary simply pending or do they represent closings? Also, how long can a home be listed as pending (if a home went under contract six months ago while it was under construction, would it remain pending until closing--same for condos under construction)? I would be interested to know for WS, RM, SS, SC and WC how many properties have gone under contract over the last 3 months. Based on the weekly price sheets I get from Arvida, many properties went under contract from 1/1 through mid April. However, over the last two months during the busy selling season, very few properties have gone pending on the Arvida list.

It's difficult to look at some of the data and filter out closings on properties that were put under contract long ago (for instance there will be lots and lots of closings on the Compass Point condos at Watersound over the next month or so, but those went under contract over a year ago) from contracts that have been placed over the last 3 months when things seem to have slowed dramatically. Closings on condos or homes that have been under contract for over three months won't give any indication of what's happening in the market currently. And, pending lists with properties that have been pending during construction for a long period of time also won't accurately portray the current market.

Any insight would be appreciated.