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goofer

Beach Fanatic
Feb 21, 2005
1,165
191
in view of blackstone buying Hilton Hotels ( i wonder if paris is part of the deal) is it worth buying JOE as a speculation?? I have been waiting for JOE to hit 40. Granted that HLT and JOE are separate biz models but there has been alot of activity in the reit sector regard buyouts this year and I am wondering if the next activity will be in companies like JOE or even some homebuilders who are selling at or below book value. there is an excellent research report by smith barney that was published thursday that is really good, discussing homebuilders and the recovery that THEY think will start next year. after the reset of adjustables in the next six months and the subsequent flush, maybe the recovery will start next year :dunno: But in any event is it worth putting some money into JOE now (25%) and waiting ?
 

goofer

Beach Fanatic
Feb 21, 2005
1,165
191
that means you will never buy the stock at that price ever. I have a hard time seeing it at under 40 :dunno: i used to be a trader on wall st. and "nothing done" meant you did not execute your order.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,775
802
in view of blackstone buying Hilton Hotels ( i wonder if paris is part of the deal) is it worth buying JOE as a speculation?? I have been waiting for JOE to hit 40. Granted that HLT and JOE are separate biz models but there has been alot of activity in the reit sector regard buyouts this year and I am wondering if the next activity will be in companies like JOE or even some homebuilders who are selling at or below book value. there is an excellent research report by smith barney that was published thursday that is really good, discussing homebuilders and the recovery that THEY think will start next year. after the reset of adjustables in the next six months and the subsequent flush, maybe the recovery will start next year :dunno: But in any event is it worth putting some money into JOE now (25%) and waiting ?


What exactly would Blackstone do with JOE once they got their hands on it? They usually jump in to make money fast and get out of Dodge. The way they can accomplish that is to flush all of Placemaker JOEs 'amenities promises' down the drain; have a BIG fire sale on the leftover lots; carve up the swamp land and sell it off at dirt cheap prices; and sell off any hotels, condos and homes that are on the books.

JOE's P/E is @ 51 vs GOOG @ 46...what's up with that? In June JOE sold off 15 office buildings (to bolster its quarterly earnings no doubt.) Why offer to buy JOE shares at a premium when Blackstone can just wait patiently and scrape JOE off their shoe later on down the line?


.
 

goofer

Beach Fanatic
Feb 21, 2005
1,165
191
Shelly

I am not saying blackstone would buy JOE but another private equity firm or a strategic buyer. you do not buy JOE or any real estate play based on earnings but on asset value. JOE's mkt cap is $3.5 billion. with a million acres you are paying $3500 an acre for PRIMO acreage. not alot of debt and a substantial amount of completed physical plant. seems cheap to me going forward. smith barney's report is compelling on their analysis of homebuilders looking out 3 years.
 

egrp

Beach Lover
Sep 22, 2005
122
3
Shelly

I am not saying blackstone would buy JOE but another private equity firm or a strategic buyer. you do not buy JOE or any real estate play based on earnings but on asset value. JOE's mkt cap is $3.5 billion. with a million acres you are paying $3500 an acre for PRIMO acreage. not alot of debt and a substantial amount of completed physical plant. seems cheap to me going forward. smith barney's report is compelling on their analysis of homebuilders looking out 3 years.

goofer the private equity binge on real estate is a leverage play. They find assets that are generating cash flow and then purchase them with debt to increase return on equity. private equity has no interest at all in buying assets that will take generations to produce earnings. These guys are paid on annual profits (20-40%), so the heat is on to produce strong positive returns every year. In summary, it is laughable to think private equity would buy JOE...now another homebuilder, etc. is a different story and i actually would not be surprised if that happens.
 
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