January Real Trend Report in Walton Sun

[Smiling JOe]

This saying only applies to people with good knees!!!!:funn:

One doesn't have to surf to understand surfing. ;-)

 

[Bobby J]

One doesn't have to surf to understand surfing. ;-)

Well put! Here is another.

Try to remain calm when you are down.

 

[jimmyp5]

...........A buyer's market is when prices reach levels where it is attractive for buyer's to buy. I am seeing some properties in this category right now, but the truth is that the overpriced properties outweigh the value buys right now. That doesn't mean that you cannot shop for a value right now, but it does show me that inventory of listings is not an accurate indicator of the market. When there are two identical lots side by side with a price fluctation greater than 40%, at least one of those two lots isn't really for sale. ;-) ............

Joe, I agree with what you're saying here. A lot of this truth stems from the old adage about a property being worth what someone will pay .... that's always been a deceptively simple statement, but not simplistic as some would believe.

You and I both get e-flyers every day about supposed values that're priced "way below market" or "$200,000 below market" .... well, apparently they're not below market, or they'd already be sold.

Similarly, someone here posted about the rich folks paying too much for a few certain high-end homes lately ... those homes were apparently worth it to them, and yet the devil of it is that them paying $1000 per sq ft does not then automatically make the other homes in the neighborhood worth similar amounts to other prospective buyers.

Analyzing a market is imprecise, and market trends can only be imperfectly described with generalities and a side order of disclaimers .... but I do enjoy it.

 

[fisher]

I think Feb 2007 will be the same as Feb 2007. Exactly, dead even!

Oops-- fingers got a bit tied up I guess.

You are dead on--07 will be even steven with 07. BUT, 07 will likely be below 06 if recent trends continue.

 

[Babyblue]

Re: I've grow tired of the real estate rhetoric...

I wouldn't argue that the daytraders didn't play a significant role. And I'm not smart enough to go research what % of the market their trades represented. I do know how many of my Physician clients were getting calls from broker reps trying to get them to get on board however. It was a daily event. You can't argue that realtors and/or brokers cannot or do not influence bad trends. I'm not buying.

A good friend once said "Don't wait to buy realestate. Buy and wait." :!:

 

[Smiling JOe]

It isn't timing the market, it is time in the market.


One other thing I disagree with in your statement is that you say it was a buyers market this time last year. I disagree. Prices were still much higher than any buyer was willing to pay.

I think those that bought at the peak of this cycle--say $850 or $950 per square foot for a home in areas where they are now going for $600 or less--will need to be in the market a long, long time (if ever) before they make any money and even then, the rate of return will be nominal.


Then why were more homes and lots sold in January 2006 than in January 2007?;-)

Actually, there wasn't much difference in the quantity of homes sold in Jan '06 vs Jan '07.

Looking at the sold property data, the Seller's Market ended in Dec '05, so the sales in Jan '06 are similar to Jan '07, because only recently, have prices begun to look interesting to sellers, which should soon show in sales. We are only 19 days into this short month and currently, there are 38 single family homes in the SoWal area from Bay Co. up to Sandestin, in the pending and contingent status. The last three months, there were 21 closed sales each month in this category and area. Not all of these will necessarily turn into closed sales for the month of Feb '07, but it does look like Feb or Mar will be much stronger than the past 13 months, as for the quanity of sales. Only 7 single family homes are listed as having closed during this month, but if these others go to close, that number should show an uptick in either Feb or Mar '07, to reflect what I and a few other Realtors have been talking about with the increase in activity. We are not just trying to pump up and misrepresent the current market conditions, no matter what some people are inclined to believe.

 

[SHELLY]

Here's another bit of information to toss out to the market.

This time it is from a January 2007 article in the Florida Real Estate Journal entitled, "Panel: Gloom to Continue in Residential Markets."

It quotes the Great Northwest Florida's (AKA the panhandle) Founder and Favorite Son--none other than Peter Rummell, JOE CEO.
---------------------------------------------------
"The disconnect between home prices and falling demand has created ?schizophrenia? in Florida?s residential real estate market, said Peter Rummell, chairman and CEO of The St. Joe Company, the state?s largest private landholder and developer of planned communities.

?We?re in a real estate recession or depression,? said Rummell, adding that Florida is now paying the price for a market that went too far, too fast. 2007 will be a poor year for sales, he said, and an enormous wave of builder layoffs is coming.

Rummell said he expects repricing of 15% to 25% in some markets, and the pace of sales will return to 2001-2002 levels.

We can live nicely in a normal world,? he said."
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[Babyblue]

And your point?

 

[Bob]

Joe, I agree with what you're saying here. A lot of this truth stems from the old adage about a property being worth what someone will pay .... that's always been a deceptively simple statement, but not simplistic as some would believe.

You and I both get e-flyers every day about supposed values that're priced "way below market" or "$200,000 below market" .... well, apparently they're not below market, or they'd already be sold.

Similarly, someone here posted about the rich folks paying too much for a few certain high-end homes lately ... those homes were apparently worth it to them, and yet the devil of it is that them paying $1000 per sq ft does not then automatically make the other homes in the neighborhood worth similar amounts to other prospective buyers.

Analyzing a market is imprecise, and market trends can only be imperfectly described with generalities and a side order of disclaimers .... but I do enjoy it.

Anyone engaging in conspicuous consumption doesn't look to comparables. Rather, the buyer is actually likely to be proud of the sale price. Cars are another good tell for this behavior. Anyone so inclined will go out of their way to buy a certain Lexus model when everyone else is driving a comparable Toyota model. It is the perfect "I have what you cannot afford" attitude.

 

[SHELLY]

And your point?

Rummell stayed at Holiday Inn Express last night too...I saw him snarffing up all the muffin tops at the free breakfast buffet this morning.


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