Panhandle real estate boom just starting

Discussion in 'Real Estate' started by ecopal, Nov 9, 2005.

  1. ecopal

    ecopal Beach Fanatic

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    Planet Realtor *>* Florida *>* News *>* Daily

    Real estate experts forecast growth

    TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Nov. 7, 2005 -- Forget the I-4 corridor. Interstate 10 and this area of North Florida are poised to be the next hot spot for real-estate development, according to some real-estate experts.

    That's because lack of available land and water supplies as well as growth-management problems are continuing to plague South Florida.

    "We've recently become a part of Florida now," said Will Butler, of the St. Joe Land Co. Butler was among the real-estate experts and more than 500 attendees Friday who shared their knowledge of the industry at Florida State University's Real Estate Trends & Networking Conference.

    The conference, in its 11th year, was held at the University Center Club.

    "I believe - whether we want to see this area of the state change or not - we will see unprecedented growth along I-10," Butler said.

    But that growth will come in stages, experts say, as many residents still want to live in bigger cities in Central and South Florida.

    Currently those cities are seeing exponential growth in condominiums. But many additional condo projects might not get off the drawing board, according to real-estate officials.

    They see a slowdown of more expensive condos, and more affordable ones may come into the market. But sales, said real-estate officials, didn't seemed to have been affected by the hurricanes.

    The rental market, however, has seen a backlash.

    The demand for more condos means more condo conversions. Tampa Bay, said Michael Slater, with TRAIAD Research & Consulting, has lost at least 25,000 rental units because of conversions.

    And that's too bad because "it's a good time to own rental assets," Slater said, "They're just hard to find."

    Historically, Florida's rental market growth has been faster than that of the nation. Nationally, the growth rate was around 2.45 percent. Most Florida metro markets realized growth of about 4 percent a year. But now the rate is 6 percent to 10 percent a year.

    Similar growth rates also are being seen in the retail office market area.

    Trend watchers reported that the Florida office market is outperforming that of any other state. Only Washington, D.C., is doing better. Statewide, vacancy rates hover at about 13.7 percent.

    In Florida, retail office space still can be rented around $20 a square foot, according to Paul Ellis, of the Trammel Crow Co.

    Because of Florida's low office rental rates, more companies are doing regional relocations. The state's natural resources and lack of a personal income tax are also attractive to companies. It also has a strong labor pool. There are at least 50 colleges and universities in the Orlando area alone.

    Prices for office space will rise, said experts, because of land and construction costs and operating expenses, as reasons. But the good news, they say, is that the market will remain competitive.

    George Banks, Summit East's operations manager, believes he's seeing that already.

    Banks handles leasing for the technology park at U.S. 90 East and Interstate 10, which plans to build at least 10 to 12 other buildings. Currently, its three buildings are 100-percent leased.

    "The demand is there for our product," Banks said. "And based on this, it looks like it will continue to be strong."

    Copyright ? 2005 Tallahassee Democrat, Juana Jordan. All Rights Reserved.

    *
     
  2. Dabell

    Dabell Beach Fanatic

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    Well I wish It would boom and I could sell my place!
     
  3. hi n dry

    hi n dry Beach Lover

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    Dabell: I hope you can sell your property but don't get too anxious - now buyers seem to be "cherry picking" some prime properties at bargain prices in this is unprecedented buying opportunity environment.

    In the last week we have been seeing a significant increase in activity on our lot on 30a. However, our lot is unique in that it is large, walking distance to the beach, and has no build out time. It also has an elevation that is above historical storm surge levels yet is close enough to
    the beach to have a view.
     
  4. hi n dry

    hi n dry Beach Lover

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    DaBell:

    FYI we have actually decreased our price by about $100,000 since we listed it. However, based on the trend of buyers looking for beach property with a high elevation and above historical storm surge levels we will be returning our price to the original appropriate level very soon-perhaps within a couple of weeks.

    30a has the highest coastal elevation of any property in Florida or for that matter in the southern US. The current high inventory of property on 30a masks the fact that such high elevation coastal property really is rare.

    We are now noticing the appearence of "smart money investors" out there bargain hunting.We have had a perfect storm of negative factors influencing the market which makes it it good time to buy but not sell.

    If you can wait until March and April to sell you might want to hold on. We are now begining to see the convergence of a number of positive elements which may launch the appreciation of prices again.
     
  5. SHELLY

    SHELLY SoWal Insider

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  6. ecopal

    ecopal Beach Fanatic

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    to SHELLY-thanks for the article.
    I am not surpised that the central Florida Land O' Lakes market is slowing. What surpises me is that anyone wanted to buy there in the first place.

    I love Scenic 30A!
     
  7. SHELLY

    SHELLY SoWal Insider

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    Today on CNBC a big-time mortgage guy said business is way, way down now that easy money has dried up. He also said many of his family members (who are well-placed REMAX agents in the Sarasota and west coast Florida area) are letting him know in no uncertain terms that buyers are few and far between for their ever expanding <and probably overpriced> listings.

    Housing demand isn't going to go away--it will, however, revert back to the mean (which ISN'T double digit appreciation, buyers camping out and 3 turnovers in a week).
     
  8. Miss Kitty

    Miss Kitty Meow

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    And you know what SHELLY...for me that's just peachy!!!! IMHO, extremes in anything finally even out....it's like that old pendulum.
     
  9. bsullie

    bsullie Beach Comber

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    Help! Need remodeling references

    OK...lots of you are familiar with the area and maybe have some good suggestions for dependable, reliable remodelers. We have plans, permit and are ready to go. Tired of waiting on a fllaky guy who refuses to get his act together and get started. Frustrated!! :bang:
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2005
  10. kurt

    kurt Admin Staff Member

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    Re: Help! Need remodeling references

    You should start a new thread.
     
  11. Miss Kitty

    Miss Kitty Meow

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    Re: Help! Need remodeling references

    ...and take some Advil for that headache!!!
     
  12. ecopal

    ecopal Beach Fanatic

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    to SHELLY,
    I agree that this summer has been -and still is as far as I know-a buyer's market and that there are more listings than buyers . However, what the original article that initiated this thread is saying is that our area has considerably more POTENTIAL for growth than the grid locked "old Florida " to the south.

    The article does meantion that the Panhandle has better water resources. But it fails to indicate that it has the only coastal property in Florida that is above even the highest recorded storm surge levels-specifically 30A.

    Scenic 30A has the potential to become even more exclusive and expensive than it already is--not that I am hoping for that . Now could be a good buying opportunity -especially for selective "cherry picking"and bargain hunting -on 30A. However, I do not feel very optimistic about most other areas in Florida including any low lying areas in the Panhandle.
     
  13. TooFarTampa

    TooFarTampa SoWal Insider

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    I absolutely agree with you, ecopal. Look for the building codes to get even tighter all around the state. And with so many of the houses already in compliance with better building codes (remember -- Seaside made it through Opal just fine), combined with the height above sea level, I suspect it won't be too long before it is "discovered" by the masses. The only people really in trouble are the owners of the gulf front homes that can't take any more storms. I feel for all of them. :sosad:
     
  14. SHELLY

    SHELLY SoWal Insider

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    Opal hit miles and miles and miles from Seaside (Navarre to be exact). What if Opal--or Ivan--or Katrina--or Rita--had hit Destin smack in the chops? With Seaside on (and much closer to) the "bad side" of either of those I doubt the outcome would have been as rosy.
     
  15. Just_In_Thyme

    Just_In_Thyme Beach Lover

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    The eye of Hurricane Opal crossed the coast near Santa Rosa Island around 6:00 pm on October 4th. In a very fortunate turn of events - Opal weakened greatly in the final 8 hours before landfall, although still coming ashore at the lower end of a major hurricane. Sustained winds of 115 mph, with gusts to 140 mph, occurred across a short stretch of coastline between Destin and Panama City, Florida. Outside of the narrow stretch of coastline, winds of 80 to 100 mph were experienced. Hurlburt Air Field, near the eye of Opal, recorded 92 mph winds, gusting to 144 mph. Panama City recorded sustained winds of 65 mph with a peak gust of 86 mph.

    Storm surge was recorded between 8-14 feet.

    Even if it had come closer I believe the outcome in the Seaside/30-A area would not have been much different.

    Do you really hate it here so much?
     
  16. SHELLY

    SHELLY SoWal Insider

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    Folks who were REALLY on to the "business" side of of any of those hurricanes would disagree.
     
  17. monty

    monty Beach Comber

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    I believe a direct hit by a 4 or especially a 5 would devastate the area along 30A. Few of the dunes are high enough to withstand a 25 foot storm surge. We would have flooding inland in most areas for hundreds/thousands of feet, especially with all the dune lakes and the bay that would get us from the backside. There would be widespread destruction by the surge. No one along any coast is safe from a cat 5 monster.
     
  18. DBOldford

    DBOldford Beach Fanatic

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    I agree with Monty about the strong Cat 4 or 5 storm. If the storm itself is extremely large and comes in at high tide, as Ivan did, then the devastation will be huge and will be far more encompassing than being on the low side of dunes or flood elevation levels. Most properties between the Gulf and Highway 20 will be heavily damaged if not destroyed. If we have a strong 4 or 5 hurricane, I assume our home at Grayton will be completely destroyed. I assumed as much with Ivan before it turned westward and lost some of its strength.

    In October of 1995, Opal came ashore as a Cat 3 with a 16-ft. storm surge. It destroyed 20 to 30-ft. dunes (that have yet to recover) and washed older houses off their foundations (including the former 100-yr. old "Conch Out"). It also took out almost every mature tree in the Lake DeFuniak Lakeyard park. To think that you are safe from one of these monsters because you're on somewhat higher ground than Gulf-front is delusional. For that matter, folks in buildings that exceed three stories actually get the higher force hurricane winds. Best we can hope for is that our 35-yr. history holds, that most storms tend to clock westerward because of their counter-clockwise motion. For one to move directly north into South Walton from the Gulf usually requires a very strong front pressing in from the northwest, mercifully rare that time of the year.
     
  19. hi n dry

    hi n dry Beach Lover

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    I agree that if you are in an area of less than 30 feet elevation you are very vulnerable. This would include any of the areas around the coastal lakes such as Draper, Oyster, Eastern, Western, Redfish Lakes etc.

    Most areas of the Old Seagrove Beach area are over 30 feet in elevation which is higher than most of both Seaside and Watercolors. Sure Old Seagrove Beach could be overwhelmed in the perfect CAT. 5 storm but in the unlikely scenario that it was washed over there would be nothing else left: Destin, Sandestin, Panama City Beach, Fort Walton Beach and Navarre and Pensacola Beach would all be gone. Also note that some of the trees in OLd Seagrove Beach are hundreds of years old.

    If I was lucky enough to have a home in Old Seagrove above 30 feet sea level I would not be too worried about storm surge unless I was right on the water. However being the pessimist I am, I might still buy flood insurance because is not that expensive.

    I remember in the last big hurricane here even low lying areas like Grayton Beach survived inspite of their low elevation. The Red Bar was filled with sand and had to be shoveled out and the old Grayton cafe was destroyed just across the street. But older cottages just a block inland survived. And this was when the bridges at Eastern Lake and Western Lake were washed out.
     
  20. DBOldford

    DBOldford Beach Fanatic

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    Flood insurance is always wise, because most flooding damage is not caused by actual Gulf storm surge. For example, if there is a frog-strangler rain and water goes into your house, you need flood insurance to cover the damage. Incidentally, damage goes beyond just drying the place out. If the water has touched the ground at all, the house really should be water vacuumed, dehumidified with many of those huge blowers (about $500/day for three days minimum) and then checked for residual moisture. You should also toss any carpet and padding (or other household items) that come into contact with such water.
     

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