Pricing in WaterColor

[Bobby J]

350 Red Cedar just went contingent today.

Imagine that....

 

[fisher]

I did not read every thread as I often just "troll". I just thought the thread felt like more RE bashing which is all good but I always like to throw my 2 cents in. Not trying to talk the market up just often feel like people don't get the complete picture. If one was to read the RE threads you would think nothing ever sells here. Not true.

And yes prices were lower in 2008.

2007 avg $1,422,356 $510.00 sq foot
2008 avg $1,276, 082 $472.45 " "

How low will it go? $250.00 on average? I don't think so but who knows. I think too much demand to let it go that low.

thanks for the additional info.

It could go much, much lower given that you can buy a lot and build a really nice 2500 sq foot place in Phase II or Phase III of Watercolor in the range of $300 per square foot including the price of the land (even cheaper if you build with AAb).

 

[AAbsolute]

egrp,
So you are saying that the cash flow break even point will be the place to where we will see real estate sale prices, on average, sink? I know you are probably talking about short term rentals, but if that is true, the same should hold true for long term, and long term is easier because no mgt company is needed in many cases, and there is no housekeeping or rental website to keep updated. Let's do some math, using a real example in Pt Washington.

Currently, you can rent a nice house (not on the beach) which would sell at $200,000 in South Walton, for $900/month. A buyer, putting down 20% is left with $160,000 mortgage, plus tax and insurance. At 6% interest, on a 30yr fixed rate loan, principle and interest is $960. Taxes for said home are $100 per month, and insurance is $200 per month, a total expense of $1260 per month, not including maintenance and vacancy, a net loss of $360 ($1260-$900=$360) per month, if you have 100% occupancy, and no required maintenance.

What sell price would be needed in order to make those numbers break even, again using 100% occupancy and no maintenance expense?
(Let's keep taxes and insurance the same amount, as this is probably likely, totaling $300 per month.)
If our rent is $900 per month, and taxes and insurance is $300 per month, that leaves only $600 per month to apply toward principle and interest. Using that same 20% downpayment, and 6% fixed rate for 30years, the note would be for $100,000. Add the 20% dwn pymt, and the sell price would be $125,000. Currently, that price of $200,000 would be the bottom for the area.

So if what you are saying is correct, we will see home sales in Pt Washington sink to $125,000 for a cute, 1600 sq ft Florida Beach style home, with medium grade finishes. This would be $78 per sq foot and you would get the lot for free. Wow!

Using this particular example, I would say that we will not see that happen.

If you want to give some real examples of other properties, I'll gladly look through your numbers.

I know you agree that sale prices for homes won't fall below their rental recovery rate. That's the firmest ground for the bottom in pricing. I like to say value is rental recovery rate less insurance and real estate tax costs.

 

[AAbsolute]

thanks for the additional info.

It could go much, much lower given that you can buy a lot and build a really nice 2500 sq foot place in Phase II or Phase III of Watercolor in the range of $300 per square foot including the price of the land (even cheaper if you build with AAb).

Please don't publicly support me. Tonight, I'm not feeling up to the argument with ScooterBug, et al (AKA Peanut Gallery).

 

[JoshMclean]

Homes in Phase IV dropped down to the low $400,000's just two days ago. Looks like St. Joe is looking to move some inventory.

 

[fisher]

Homes in Phase IV dropped down to the low $400,000's just two days ago. Looks like St. Joe is looking to move some inventory.

What do you think that does to all those people that purchased LOTS in Phase IV for $500k to $600k?? ASSUMING they can dump them even at those prices, makes it look like the lots in Phase IV are worth under $100k and falling.

 

[JoshMclean]

Those people will be sitting on those lots for a long time or giving them back.

Here's the lowest priced home at $415,000.
http://ecarmls.com/EmeraldReports/listings.asp?ID=7216459948

 

[awig]

What do you think that does to all those people that purchased LOTS in Phase IV for $500k to $600k?? ASSUMING they can dump them even at those prices, makes it look like the lots in Phase IV are worth under $100k and falling.

The lots in Phase IV are worth less than $100K. Phase IV of WaterColor is not a bad place to live compared to other houses that are selling in the high $300's to low $400's...

 

[AAbsolute]

Those people will be sitting on those lots for a long time or giving them back.

Here's the lowest priced home at $415,000.
[URL="http://ecarmls.com/EmeraldReports/listings.asp?ID=7216459948"]http://ecarmls.com/EmeraldReports/listings.asp?ID=7216459948[/URL]

I believe they would fly off the shelf at 399,000 for a 4 bed 4 bath 2,300 sq.ft.

 

[JoshMclean]

I believe they would fly off the shelf at 399,000 for a 4 bed 4 bath 2,300 sq.ft.

No doubt.