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redfisher

Beach Fanatic
Sep 11, 2005
431
27
Shelly...thanks for your thoughts; your candor is appreciated. I've noticed that a lot of RE professionals here, probably thinking it's best to be optimistic, will not tell you the facts about the RE market or about their closings for 2006; you will probably be proven correct once again in 2007.


I'm curious to know which r/e agents on this website you believe have been the most dishonest...Red
 

spinDrAtl

Beach Fanatic
Jul 11, 2005
368
2
spinDrAtl...I'm assuming "Atl" is Atlanta; down here you hear many realtors stating that the boomers will bail out the market and it's just around the corner. I think that was what Shelly was referring to and I agree with Shelly; I personally consider it to be wishful thinking by many realtors here.

If you are in Atlanta, are you experiencing the overbuilding and boomer hype up there?

I agree with that. In no way do I think any boomer bailout is coming next year or even in the next couple. I believe it will be a slow migration over some longer period of time.

Technically I am a boomer by the media definition of the birth years. Praise be that I already have my 30A property. Is it for retirement? That is TBD.

As to your question regarding the Atlanta market, it seems that the overbuilding segment is now the trendy downtown condo towers. Atlantic Station is a very successful project and so everyone is now being a copycat. There are so many condo towers (plus a number of loft projects as well) on the drawing board that I don't see how they will sell them all. There is some migration from suburbs to the city due to traffic nightmares every day but not enough to fill every project I see in the Sunday real estate section. If you want a city condo in a year or two, I think you may see prices dive and flippers caught in Atlanta as well.

Houses in the suburbs seem to be selling but slowly and I don't think prices are taking too much of a dive. The slowdown seems to be days on the market, but then again, we are in the slow season at the moment.
 

BMBWalker

Beach Lover
Nov 1, 2006
130
0
I agree with that. In no way do I think any boomer bailout is coming next year or even in the next couple. I believe it will be a slow migration over some longer period of time.

Technically I am a boomer by the media definition of the birth years. Praise be that I already have my 30A property. Is it for retirement? That is TBD.

As to your question regarding the Atlanta market, it seems that the overbuilding segment is now the trendy downtown condo towers. Atlantic Station is a very successful project and so everyone is now being a copycat. There are so many condo towers (plus a number of loft projects as well) on the drawing board that I don't see how they will sell them all. There is some migration from suburbs to the city due to traffic nightmares every day but not enough to fill every project I see in the Sunday real estate section. If you want a city condo in a year or two, I think you may see prices dive and flippers caught in Atlanta as well.

Houses in the suburbs seem to be selling but slowly and I don't think prices are taking too much of a dive. The slowdown seems to be days on the market, but then again, we are in the slow season at the moment.

spinDrAtl...thanks for the info...I hear the Related Group is starting a large build-out around Lenox Square. Should be interesting!
 

flyforfun

Beach Fanatic
Oct 20, 2006
311
39
Birmingham, Al
Guys-n-Gals, there are a lot of jealous people who lacked the courage to ever buy a piece of property at the beach, and nothing is going to ever fix those folks way of thinking. They just try to spin their negative thinking on everyone else. My father always told me that you will always have people who will tell you can't do something, because they lack the courage to do it themselves. The beach real estate market down goes up and down. You get the occasional hurricane adjustment, the market slows down and people with money take advantage of these slow times, while they skeptics sit back and throw darts at everyone else.

During an up market your RE agent will tell you how great of investment you are making but during a down market, they tell you should lower the price so they can make an living. In a couple of months the media will announce RE is hot, and investors will be back to drive the market up again and agents will again be singing the investment song-n-dance.

To win in the long run, you must consider real estate as a long term investment. My father purchased a lot in western Panama City one mile from the beach for three hundred dollars in 1960's and sold it in 1998 for forty five thousand dollars. If he had waited until 2004, he could have even doubled that amount. As a child, I remember my mother telling him how stupid he was to invest in a piece of sand one mile from the beach during a time when we were doing good to buy new school cloths. Still today, it was the best investment he ever made!

I have flown up and down the east and west coast of Florida, and one thing is for certain, there is no place such as this piece of paradise! It's not just the property, but the people who have an absolute love for the beaches and community. People fight against over development, seawalls, paved roads, etc.. Nothing like it anywhere in this country, and that is why it's so unique and valuable. The people who realize this are still buying today, because the record shows, hurricanes come and go, but the bottom line is that there is less than 5% of Florida beaches that have beautiful white sand and high elevations above sea level.

So find you a piece of paradise and just hang on to it for 5-10 years, maybe longer. In the long run, it will be the best investment you will have ever made!
 
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BMBWalker

Beach Lover
Nov 1, 2006
130
0
Guys-n-Gals, there are a lot of jealous people who lacked the courage to ever buy a piece of property at the beach, and nothing is going to ever fix those folks way of thinking. They just try to spin their negative thinking on everyone else. My father always told me that you will always have people who will tell you can't do something, because they lack the courage to do it themselves. The beach real estate market down goes up and down. You get the occasional hurricane adjustment, the market slows down and people with money take advantage of these slow times, while they skeptics sit back and throw darts at everyone else.

During an up market your RE agent will tell you how great of investment you are making but during a down market, they tell you should lower the price so they can make an living. In a couple of months the media will announce RE is hot, and investors will be back to drive the market up again and agents will again be singing the investment song-n-dance.

To win in the long run, you must consider real estate as a long term investment. My father purchased a lot in western Panama City one mile from the beach for three hundred dollars in 1960's and sold it in 1998 for one hundred and ten thousand dollars. If he had waited until 2004, he could have even doubled that amount. As a child, I remember my mother telling him how stupid he was to invest in a piece of sand one mile from the beach during a time when we were doing good to buy new school cloths. Still today, it was the best investment he ever made!

I have flown up and down the east and west coast of Florida, and one thing is for certain, there is no place such as this piece of paradise! It's not just the property, but the people who have an absolute love for the beaches and community. People fight against over development, seawalls, paved roads, etc.. Nothing like it anywhere in this country, and that is why it's so unique and valuable. The people who realize this are still buying today, because the record shows, hurricanes come and go, but the bottom line is that there is less than 5% of Florida beaches that have beautiful white sand and high elevations above sea level.

So find you a piece of paradise and just hang on to it for 5-10 years, maybe longer. In the long run, it will be the best investment you will have ever made!

FFF...no problem with your long term projections...what is your 12 to 24 month projection for sales in this area?

BTW, experienced mortgage brokers here speak of an eight percent average historical appreciation rate when discussing the last 10 to 15 years of sales; 2003/2004/2005 spiked prices skew this somewhat. Also, where are these people with money taking advantage of the slow times? They don't seem to be on BMB; realtor signs seem to stay up forever. I guess these smart purchasers are in developments whose names begin with Water.
 

flyforfun

Beach Fanatic
Oct 20, 2006
311
39
Birmingham, Al
FFF...no problem with your long term projections...what is your 12 to 24 month projection for sales in this area?

BTW, experienced mortgage brokers here speak of an eight percent average historical appreciation rate when discussing the last 10 to 15 years of sales; 2003/2004/2005 spiked prices skew this somewhat. Also, where are these people with money taking advantage of the slow times? They don't seem to be on BMB; realtor signs seem to stay up forever. I guess these smart purchasers are in developments whose names begin with Water.

We are in the slowest period for real estate sales and all the real estate agents I know (who are still working) are getting busy. Serious investors are in the market now, trying to take advantage of people who over leveraged themselves. Prices will level off 1st quarter of 2007 and will begin to increase during 2nd and 3rd quarter of 07. By 4th quarter 2007 the insurance and tax issues will have been resolved, so if we can have another mild hurricane season, completion of SW beach renurishment, and further airport development, then I anticipate a very strong 2008 year. Still the people who can not run with the big dogs will stay on the porch and growl at everyone else for having the courage to take a little risk. :rotfl:
 
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fisher

Beach Fanatic
Sep 19, 2005
822
76
We are in the slowest period for real estate sales and all the real estate agents I know (who are still working) are getting busy. Serious investors are in the market now, trying to take advantage of people who over leveraged themselves. Prices will level off 1st quarter of 2007 and will begin to increase during 2nd and 3rd quarter of 07. By 4th quarter 2007 the insurance and tax issues will have been resolved, so if we can have another mild hurricane season, completion of SW beach renurishment, and further airport development, then I anticipate a very strong 2008 year. Still the people who can not run with the big dogs will stay on the porch and growl at everyone else for having the courage to take a little risk. :rotfl:


Fly--

You need to add about 5 to 8 years to your predictions above. There is way, way too much inventory on the market plus lots more to come on the market in the next few years for the market to go into a serious uptick. Seeing "investors" in the market will not help at all. We need serious END USERS, and lots of them to come into the market and buy up all the inventory before the market will turn. Serious investors will simply try to buy distressed properties and them put them right back on the market. That won't help anyone.
 

flyforfun

Beach Fanatic
Oct 20, 2006
311
39
Birmingham, Al
Fly--

You need to add about 5 to 8 years to your predictions above. There is way, way too much inventory on the market plus lots more to come on the market in the next few years for the market to go into a serious uptick. Seeing "investors" in the market will not help at all. We need serious END USERS, and lots of them to come into the market and buy up all the inventory before the market will turn. Serious investors will simply try to buy distressed properties and them put them right back on the market. That won't help anyone.

Prime example of what the "big dogs" are doing. There is a very successful developer/investor in Seagrove with initials of DH. Controversial at times but successful, and has been investing at the beach a very long time. What has he done during this time, but buy every piece of beach front property he can get his hands on. He demolished about 5 rental homes right on the beach! Do you think he believes there is a 5-8 years for the market to return? Probably not! Now he is not buying property blocks from the beach either, but RE that is beach front! I know of another developer who is using his own money (not the banks) to build more condo's near Topsol state park. Look what the big players are doing, and then ask yourself again if you really believe its going to be 5-8 years. There have always been a mix of end users and investors at the beach. Unfortunately, way to may people have discovered paradise, and this little slump will not last for long. I have never known anyone who has been to our beach along 30-A and not said they wished they had a beach home or condo there.
 
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