• Trouble logging in? Send us a message with your username and/or email address for help.
New posts

DBOldford

Beach Fanatic
Jan 25, 2005
990
15
Napa Valley, CA
For Paula...the airport people are referring to is the proposed international airport to be located in Panama City, with a freeway flyover between the airport and Seagrove. One of the impediments to real estate sales in the past has been inaccessibility to markets other than the (driving) SE. Oddly, that was one of the things we liked best about South Walton. You will find the book "Green Empire: The St. Joe Company and the Remaking of the Florida Panhandle" very intriguing, given your business background.

These posts regarding the slowdown in the South Walton market are interesting to me, the opinions so diverse. I tend to agree that those who purchased recently and speculatively, in hopes of spinning these properties may be writing some checks to unload them. We considered investing in some pre-construction condos and decided against doing so when we researched how many new lots and units were being created. Even without the hurricanes, sharks, etc. we would have seen (and even needed) a market correction. Arizona is a good example of what happens when too many units flood the market. Every time there is a small demand increase there, developers rush in and overbuild. Consequently, real estate profits are lower there than in most resort areas. By contrast, it is so difficult to build in CA that even with the nation's highest real estate prices, we continue to enjoy the highest profit margins in the country. This in spite of earthquakes, wildfires, floods, landslides (our four seasons!), and the high cost of living, by the way.

So my point is, people will always recognize quality of life, both in terms of natural resources and the area's determination to protect it. South Walton has done a pretty good job of requiring quality development with protection of resources and protection of quality of life. Hurricanes will always be part of life down there and not every year will be like the past two. I believe the major factors in the current slowdown are inflated inventory of properties, combined with the price increases of the past three years simply reducing the number of people who qualify for investment.

Our Grayton property, which was purchased a little over three years ago, has increased in value by three to four times what we paid if one looks at closing prices on comparable properties. How could we moan about the difference between three and four times, if we needed to move the property? :dunno: Another big plus in South Walton is the demand for rentals, which offset a recent buyer's expenses handsomely and can even cover expenses for someone who bought several years ago. I am unaware of anyplace in the country where this is the case in a resort community. The "bubble" hasn't burst, it's just coasting, pun intended. There is only so much property near an ocean/gulf and it will always be in high demand.

Having so opined, I am curious to hear what others have to say about Grayton Beach, specifically. We only looked at Grayton properties, believing that at the end of the day, that would be the most sought after location. My (retired) engineer husband also pointed out that Grayton was the only beach community in the area that had many hosues that were nearly or more than 100 years old and still standing. He felt the "deep" beach and the dunes, if protected, would do the protective job they have obviously done for a century or more. Also, the limit on development coupled with the State Park lands would keep a lid on the amount of inventory that could ever be on the market. Does anyone agree, disagree, whatever? We are not inclined to sell at this time, but are always interested in the dynamics of the marketplace. I welcome all opinions.
 

Paula

Beach Fanatic
Jan 25, 2005
3,747
442
Michigan but someday in SoWal as well
Quote Smiling Joe: 11. They inherited some money and have their main home expenses under control (and maybe mortgage paid off) and can invest in a second home (e.g., baby boomers). I am looking for a rich parent to adopt. Anyone interested?

Nah, parents don't have to be rich to leave just enough for the mortgage down payment for a little place in SoWal. The kids have to figure out how to pay for the rest. We're not necessarily talking about parents who leave their kids enough money to buy the whole place (though I think there are going to be enough of these as well).
 

Paula

Beach Fanatic
Jan 25, 2005
3,747
442
Michigan but someday in SoWal as well
iqueequeg said:
Paula, do you have any information about the elevations of 30a areas? We're in Watersound on the lake, and I know it feels like we're pretty well elevated off the gulf, but I actually have no idea what our elevation above sea level is. I hadn't given it much thought until a couple of weeks ago.
Jack

No, I don't. But Kurt or someone else who posts here might. I read somewhere on this site that our elevations are quite high, and our place at Seacrest seems up pretty high. I poked around the Internet today to see if I could find an elevation map, but wasn't successful. Maybe I'll stop by a bookstore or library this week to see if I can find an atlast with elevations on it. But I realized that we'd need to compare coastal elevation levels (e.g., how does SoWal compare to other coastal areas in the US) rather than a general elevation map.
 

TooFarTampa

SoWal Insider
6) Finding out that Jim Cantore is your next door neighbor, in charge of the new show on The Weather Channel titled : Grayton Beach - How People are Preparing for 40 Years of Hurricane Hell at Ground Zero

9) Fear of inadvertently purchasing next door to Sheryl and Lance, and being kept up all night as he does his drugs while she plays her incessant rock and roll




:rofl: :rotfl: :clap_1:

They're all funny but those are my favorites! Thanks for the laugh OMB!
 

Cork On the Ocean

directionally challenged
skier said:
Cork,

In terms of comps, lot 61 in passages (two lots down from lot 63 you mention above) is for sale for $650k (mls 394250).

You're data is outdated. Lot 61 is listed for $595. Started at $799, dropped it to $650K. It went under contract in 10 days and busted. Relisted for $595K

Lot 63 when it sold in an arms length transaction last September. It hasn't been snatched up yet. As I said in the message that started this thread, if you believe in the market and where prices have been over the last 8 to 12 months, then there are some real deals to be had.

Lot 63 way overpaid. The seller made $582,500 gross profit in less than a year. Who advised that buyer? Paid full asking price too. Yes, there are some deals to be had and that's why a smart investor is going to begin buying on the ebb. Most RECENT data indicates an appreciable increase in pending sales over the last 11 days which a smart investor will track. Is it time to buy? Too early to tell but should certainly be watching data other than the county appraiser's office.

Is anybody buying? Here's the numbers of 30A lots that went under contract this year. Seems we might be seeing the first signs of an uptrend or it could be short term inmigration - too early to tell.

Jan - 93
Feb - 92
March - 93
April - 64
May - 50
June - 42
July - 24
August - 25
Sept - 1st 11 days - 16 ( if it stays the same this month, that would be 43 this month which is interesting)

Homes on 30A:

Jan - 40
Feb - 38
March- 53
April - 44
May - 33
June - 37
July - 18
August - 13
Sept - 1st 11 days - 6 (which means if it stays the same for the rest of the month, they'll be 30 going under contract in Sept)


Another example is the recent lot release by Watercolor of the lots behind Publix. These are the least desirable lots in Watercolor (farther from the beach, behind a shopping center, less amenities, etc.). They sold in June at an average of around $575k. There are now several lots for sale in Phase II for less than the average for Phase IV just 2 months ago. One of the lots is for sale for $450k!!!!!! This is a very specific fact.


Yes, the lot is $450 but it's significantly smaller than the one that sold for $585K in 4/05. Also, it has to start construction by end of 06. The other doesn't have to until end of 07. You need to compare apples to apples with "specific" data. Also, I had several people registered for Phase IV but when we saw the location they pulled out. Many people bought Watercolor to flip.
I live on 30A so I have no problem holding my property for more than a few months. I've flipped but you can't always make $200K in 2 months.

No doubt, Joe did a great job of marketing. People see the pretty ads in Atlanta, call the office and buy. Watercolor is a beautiful project but buyers who go straight to the developer aren't going to be exposed to anything but the developer's community. I've got a lot listed right now, large enough to put a house, pool AND carriage house on - only 5 lots from the water in front of Phase IV for just about $550. Lets see...$450 for a tram to the beach or $550 for a view and quick walk. As a resident and long-term investor, I would so much rather be there. As a "flipper", don't know what I'd choose to be honest.

Not an average generalization. The best place to look for facts on closings is the Walton County website. Not the MLS.

Yes and no. The county has more comprehensive data because they have sales that were not listed in the MLS. The county data appears to be about 2 months behind so if you want CURRENT data, the MLS is the only place to go. Also, the county data is too cumbersome to extract the data and there's no history on the sale to understand the dynamics of the sale.

My point is not that the AVERAGE price for lots or homes has increased or decreased. But, that specific and very comparable properties are selling at lower prices than last year and in some case just a couple of months ago. I'm giving specifics, not averages. These are the specific facts. Not the average, generic facts.

These are isolated, abberant facts that I hope are not intended to scare people. Any trend analysis MUST include averages and means. I can site as many people who have overpaid as those who have sold too low. People die, people get divorced, people's incomes drop (like pilots). One or two people who make poor or desperate decisions does not dictate a market.

Many of these sellers will still make money if they bought a 18, 24, 36, etc months ago.

MOST of these sellers will make money. I have a buyer who went under contract on a house for $889K in 4/05. It just appraised at $1,099,000 and that appreciation was over the "bubble explosion" that you seem to be portraying.

Yep, the overcrowded market, swamped with investors will continue to cause the market to fall.

I respectfully disagree. Investors who descended on what they expected to be a cash cow, made poor business decisions, are freaking out right now and hurting themselves by broadcasting unsubstantiated fears to the world. Could this cause the market to fall, I don't know but it is scaring several of my clients and as important as I think it is to rectify some of this misinformation and conjecture, I now need to give my time to my clients.

If you truly own the Seaside home and are not just freaking saying that you will take $980K, please let me know so that I can get your signature on a sales contract.
 

ecopal

Beach Fanatic
Apr 26, 2005
261
7
regarding elevations:
the survey of your property may give elevation.
also, the Walton county website does give FEMA flood and storm tide categories. Water Colors in area of High Street, W. Lake ForestDr. and Needle Rush dr. are shown as being in the FEMA 100 year flood zone. The other flood zones in Seagrove are esentailly only those obvious areas just a block to the north of 30 a- for example just take Andaloossa or Montigo st. until you get to the bottom of the dune and that is a flood zone area.
 

Bob

SoWal Insider
Nov 16, 2004
10,364
1,391
O'Wal
Paula said:
No, I don't. But Kurt or someone else who posts here might. I read somewhere on this site that our elevations are quite high, and our place at Seacrest seems up pretty high. I poked around the Internet today to see if I could find an elevation map, but wasn't successful. Maybe I'll stop by a bookstore or library this week to see if I can find an atlast with elevations on it. But I realized that we'd need to compare coastal elevation levels (e.g., how does SoWal compare to other coastal areas in the US) rather than a general elevation map.
Download Google Earth ...as you run the cursor over the land , you will see the elevation changes. It's great fun, and free!!!!
 
Last edited:

Bob

SoWal Insider
Nov 16, 2004
10,364
1,391
O'Wal
Donna said:
For Paula...the airport people are referring to is the proposed international airport to be located in Panama City, with a freeway flyover between the airport and Seagrove. One of the impediments to real estate sales in the past has been inaccessibility to markets other than the (driving) SE. Oddly, that was one of the things we liked best about South Walton. You will find the book "Green Empire: The St. Joe Company and the Remaking of the Florida Panhandle" very intriguing, given your business background.

These posts regarding the slowdown in the South Walton market are interesting to me, the opinions so diverse. I tend to agree that those who purchased recently and speculatively, in hopes of spinning these properties may be writing some checks to unload them. We considered investing in some pre-construction condos and decided against doing so when we researched how many new lots and units were being created. Even without the hurricanes, sharks, etc. we would have seen (and even needed) a market correction. Arizona is a good example of what happens when too many units flood the market. Every time there is a small demand increase there, developers rush in and overbuild. Consequently, real estate profits are lower there than in most resort areas. By contrast, it is so difficult to build in CA that even with the nation's highest real estate prices, we continue to enjoy the highest profit margins in the country. This in spite of earthquakes, wildfires, floods, landslides (our four seasons!), and the high cost of living, by the way.

So my point is, people will always recognize quality of life, both in terms of natural resources and the area's determination to protect it. South Walton has done a pretty good job of requiring quality development with protection of resources and protection of quality of life. Hurricanes will always be part of life down there and not every year will be like the past two. I believe the major factors in the current slowdown are inflated inventory of properties, combined with the price increases of the past three years simply reducing the number of people who qualify for investment.

Our Grayton property, which was purchased a little over three years ago, has increased in value by three to four times what we paid if one looks at closing prices on comparable properties. How could we moan about the difference between three and four times, if we needed to move the property? :dunno: Another big plus in South Walton is the demand for rentals, which offset a recent buyer's expenses handsomely and can even cover expenses for someone who bought several years ago. I am unaware of anyplace in the country where this is the case in a resort community. The "bubble" hasn't burst, it's just coasting, pun intended. There is only so much property near an ocean/gulf and it will always be in high demand.

Having so opined, I am curious to hear what others have to say about Grayton Beach, specifically. We only looked at Grayton properties, believing that at the end of the day, that would be the most sought after location. My (retired) engineer husband also pointed out that Grayton was the only beach community in the area that had many hosues that were nearly or more than 100 years old and still standing. He felt the "deep" beach and the dunes, if protected, would do the protective job they have obviously done for a century or more. Also, the limit on development coupled with the State Park lands would keep a lid on the amount of inventory that could ever be on the market. Does anyone agree, disagree, whatever? We are not inclined to sell at this time, but are always interested in the dynamics of the marketplace. I welcome all opinions.
Donna, I think middle/upper Sonoma County to be an incredible place to have a home. Other than real estate costs, what makes building there so costly?? You are correct about Grayton Beach. It is the crown jewel of the entire area. Elevation there is only 3-7 feet. Not good. I was wondering if Grayton flooded during Opal, and look forward to what locals say also.
 

Camp Creek Kid

Christini Zambini
Feb 20, 2005
1,278
124
52
Seacrest Beach
I was not here during Opal, but I know that Grayton Beach did flood quite badly during Opal. The water was trapped behind the dunes for quite some time and Grayton Beach was an extension of Western Lake for awhile.
 
New posts


Sign Up for SoWal Newsletter