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30ashopper

SoWal Insider
Apr 30, 2008
6,853
3,468
54
Right here!
How can you have a decrease of more than 100%??:dunno:

I was just doing that math in my head and decided I better come in here and correct - 70% depreciation off peak. oops. :D Even with the market downturn an index in the s&p 500 would have been a far better investment choice.
 
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drivingtheview

Beach Lover
Oct 17, 2005
107
28
Inventory for the same areas.

March, 2005- 854
March, 2006- 2089
March, 2007- 2433
March, 2008- 2505
March, 2009- 2245

I'll add my 2 cents so take it for what it's worth. The March 2009 inventory is pretty staggering. However, I personally believe the March 2009 inventory potentially represents only half of what is actually "For Sale." I believe there are thousands of lot/home/condo owners who want to sell their property but have moved beyond the formality of listing their property. The overwhelming mindset is "what's the point??" The March 2009 inventory is represented by 2 types of owners; those who have to sell or those who have equity as a result of purchasing prior to the run-up. So over supply should continue much longer than the current inventory levels/trends may suggest. Case in point-I drove thru numerous 30a neighborhoods/subdivisions last summer/fall and saw the vast majority of properties listed. I drive the same places today and see a dramatic reduction in For Sale signs.

All of that said, I bought property in 2005. I feel I bought smart but I would obviously take a loss if I sold today. However, I am very glad I purchased when I did. If I did not, all of those funds would have been squandered in the stock market. I can enjoy my property and have confidence that one day I'll have an opportunity to recoup my costs and maybe even make a profit. I'm thrilled that business is picking up for some local realtors as I know the ones still in the game have earned their opportunity. Considering local and national conditions, I'm also thrilled with the optimism and positive energy in SoWal. It's hard to complain these days about a glass half full.
 

30A Skunkape

Mr. Small Box
Jan 18, 2006
10,201
2,214
50
Backatown Seagrove
I would like to echo what Ray and Fisher allude to above, and let me preface my comment by saying I know little to nothing about the real estate business.

It seems there is a keen interest as to when we hit 'the bottom' as if there is an implied expectation that once the market touches that magic mark, it will be back up, up, up like a rocket;those who don't buy this time will have either missed the boat (again) and be left to lament or will suddenly buy something in a 'better late than never' mindset.

Again, naive as I might be, I can't imagine that property values will do anything other than remain level for a long time. There certainly isn't any evidence that I can see to believe that the engine for another boom is being primed to fire-up again. God help anyone who actually desires another bubble, by the way.

All in all, I think a long period of stability is in order for our corner of the world. Time is the tincture that discourages those who view real estate as a get rich quick scheme. Downtime also allows for the further attrition of realtors who had no business getting involved in the first place, and there are still more than a few out there hanging on by their fingernails hoping that the boom money in the bank lasts until the bubble starts to expand again.

My hope as someone who lives here year round, and plans to do so for a long time, is that in ten years or so we have people who will have bought property for the right reasons (ie will be good owners be it part or full time) and a community of real estate professionals who enjoy a lucrative career by utilizing local expertise instead of just showing up to make a buck.
 

30A Skunkape

Mr. Small Box
Jan 18, 2006
10,201
2,214
50
Backatown Seagrove
One more quick comment that I will be interested in hearing what the realtors have to say...

During this downtime, if I was a realtor, I would do my best to make it more difficult to obtain a Florida real estate sales associate license. Specifically, I would lobby hard to do away with reciprocity agreements with other states (especially Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi) and perhaps advocate changing the passing score on the exam to 80% instead of 75%. This would shut out a large number of the carpetbaggers and scalawags who are just waiting for this market to boom again. You might even consider denying a broker's license to anyone who has more than two foreclosed properties on their credit report as that would be a red flag for a realtor who may not have much real estate common sense.

Just a thought.
 

Lynnie

SoWal Insider
Apr 18, 2007
8,176
431
SoBuc
One more quick comment that I will be interested in hearing what the realtors have to say...

During this downtime, if I was a realtor, I would do my best to make it more difficult to obtain a Florida real estate sales associate license. Specifically, I would lobby hard to do away with reciprocity agreements with other states (especially Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi) and perhaps advocate changing the passing score on the exam to 80% instead of 75%. This would shut out a large number of the carpetbaggers and scalawags who are just waiting for this market to boom again. You might even consider denying a broker's license to anyone who has more than two foreclosed properties on their credit report as that would be a red flag for a realtor who may not have much real estate common sense.

Just a thought.


Great point!! Take this one step further to include every aspect of selling real estate.......not just licensing for mortgage brokers, but those who work for banks as well. Title agents and appraisers, too. When I searched for employees, most of the disciplinary action for the MBB was in S. FL, but NW FL had its share of the crooks as well. I think the shake out has occurred on these groups however just in normal attrition over the last 2-3 years. :clap:
 
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TooFarTampa

SoWal Insider
The problem is that most of that overpriced inventory is held by folks that need to get out and they are hoping for a miracle sale so they don't have to bring any money to the closing table. Eventually, a good chunk of that inventory will hit the short sale/foreclosure list and the prices will drop drastically. There aren't enough buyers to absorb all of that inventory for many, many years. That's why what looked like a good deal several months ago, doesn't look like such a good deal anymore. A good example is those Sanc at Redfish condos that auctioned off around $400k last year (I believe the buyers premium took the actual prices to mid $400's to around $500k--but I am not certain). There are now two shorts listed below $400k and they aren't selling. There are similar examples in areas up and down 30A.

I have to agree with this. Though I do think that a good chunk of those people will just decide to suck it up and hang on.
 

gmarc

Beach Fanatic
Jan 19, 2009
506
65
There's a situation maybe a bobby or other posters can comment on. In my situation i recently bought on 30'a and paid 20-30% less than recent comps in my neighborhood. my question is in reference to all of 30-a.There's obviously many people who bought from 2002-2007 who are under water and throw in tons of people who bought in the 90's and got home equity loans and have no equity left. When they see tons of homes selling for 1/2 of what they owe will they walk? For instance a person who bought a home for $3.3 mil in watercolor or watersound and its worth $1.5 mil. Why would they hold being underwater $1.8 mil? Even if there wealthy why not let if go and rebuy something else in cash ? I think down the line this will put huge pressure on the mkt for a while. Thats why when i went to buy i had to get a price well under the comps to protect against the possible coming price drops.Plus i'm content to hold for 10 years or longer . Buyers are very smart now and they try to buy based on the lowest comps. Also as a note above says what about the huge pent up demand from sellers who haven't been able to sell yet? This mkt will stagnant at best for many years.
 
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30A Skunkape

Mr. Small Box
Jan 18, 2006
10,201
2,214
50
Backatown Seagrove
There's a situation maybe a bobby or other posters can comment on. In my situation i recently bought on 30'a and paid 20-30% less than recent comps in my neighborhood. my question is in reference to all o 30-a.There's obviously many people who bought from 2002-2007 who are under waterwater and throw in tons of people who bought in the 90's and got home equity loans and have no equity left. When they see tons of homes selling for 1/2 of what they owe will they walk? For instance a person who bought a home for $3.3 mil in watercolor or watersound and its worth $1.5 mil. Why

The high irony is that you and the person who sold you your property (assuming it wasn't foreclosed) will be viewed as 'the bad guys' by those around you who are stuck holding the investulation hot potato!
 

Bobby J

Beach Fanatic
Apr 18, 2005
4,043
599
Blue Mountain beach
www.lifeonshore.com
There's a situation maybe a bobby or other posters can comment on. In my situation i recently bought on 30'a and paid 20-30% less than recent comps in my neighborhood. my question is in reference to all o 30-a.There's obviously many people who bought from 2002-2007 who are under waterwater and throw in tons of people who bought in the 90's and got home equity loans and have no equity left. When they see tons of homes selling for 1/2 of what they owe will they walk? For instance a person who bought a home for $3.3 mil in watercolor or watersound and its worth $1.5 mil. Why

Walking is not real easy. You have to be out of money. I can go into more detail later on your question. Going surfing!
 
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